Michael Shermer: Why Do The Rational Believe The Irrational? Biases, Fallacies, & Skepticism 101

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Michael, my Twitter bio says
passionately.

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Curious, reasonably skeptical.
And I try to live my life along

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this motto or whatever.
But in general, I think that

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maintaining A leveled and
reasonable skepticism becomes

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quite difficult when you're
trying to simultaneously be

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passionately curious, and it
often opens that door to

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relativism where anything can
go.

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So my first question for you is
what is curiosity and how do we

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define and differentiate it from
skepticism?

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Oh, interesting.
I don't think anyone's ever

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asked me that before.
Usually it's what's the

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difference between skepticism
and cynicism?

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Which is no relation at all
other than.

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Skeptics of beliefs that people
hold dear sounds like cynicism

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to the to them, curiosity.
Well, that is part of the

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scientific mindset.
You just want to know what's

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true.
That's what we all want to know.

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You know?
Are aliens really out there or

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not?
Have they really come here or

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not?
Curious minds want to know, and

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the skeptical position is that.
The null hypothesis says they're

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not out there, and they haven't
come here until you provide

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evidence accordingly enough to
overturn the null hypothesis.

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That is, reject your skepticism.
Reasonable skepticism, not

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cynicism, not.
Nihilism not we can know

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nothing, but just, you know,
some proportion of evidence to

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tip you over into accepting the
claim as probably true or likely

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true or whatever.
And it's curiosity that drives

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us to try to answer any
questions.

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And you know, I guess, you know,
there's an evolutionary basis to

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curiosity.
Of course, if you know hungry

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animals, organisms, as they were
behaviorism, become more active

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when they're hungry.
They're burning more calories to

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get more calories.
And so they have to explore

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their environment, branch out to
find food for example, or mates

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or whatever.
And or exploring new territories

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to find new niches to fill.
You know this is what animals do

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and we're animals.
So curiosity about the world is

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is you know designed into us and
you know there's there's we

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we've published some articles in
Skeptic on the origins of the

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scientific impulse that is to
test hypotheses.

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The idea is relatively new, just
a few centuries old.

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And even less than that.
If you're talking about

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randomized controlled trials and
statistical tests of hypothesis

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and things like that, that's
less than a century old.

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But the idea of testing a
hypothesis goes back probably

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hundreds of thousands, if not
millions of years of tracking,

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just tracking it.
Hunting and tracking animals

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requires these bipedal large
brain primates to.

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Test hypotheses.
Well, here's the tracks.

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Here's what I think the tracks
indicate that the animal is

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moving this way or that way, and
there's shade over there and

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there's water over here.
What's more likely for this

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Organism to have done?
Then let's go check it out and

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see that's that's a hypothesis
test.

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That's a that's a kind of a
scientific way of thinking.

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So I don't think it's it's
something that is entirely

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cultural, that is we just
made-up science as part of the

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Western tradition.
I think it's built into the

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human brain to you know
understand cause and effect.

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You know, A appears to be
connected to B, and that's

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called association learning.
You know, classical conditioning

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and operant condition, all
that's based on.

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Carrying two different stimuli
together and see if there's a

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causal connection or not, which
the Organism does by responding

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to the stimulus.
So the whole stimulus response

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thing is based on the idea that
we try to learn, we try to find

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cause and effect relationships
in the world for survival

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purposes.
Well, I think it's it's always

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easy to fall into that trap of
of of either not being skeptical

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enough of a claim and perhaps
being too skeptical.

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And when I started this podcast,
I remember because I came into

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it with so many predispositions
and so many normative values I

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apply to my own scientific view
or mindset.

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And the more I've been exposed
to varying theories of

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consciousness, mind, reality,
etc, the more it's it's easier

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to see how close we're getting
to that relativist reality where

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anything could sort of go with
with that sort of framework in

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mind.
Do you think that call Popper's

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falsification method?
I mean that trying to

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differentiate between a
pseudoscience and a science is

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becoming harder today because of
our lack of understanding of the

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fundamental nature of reality.
No, I think there's two

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different things going on.
You know, Popper's falsification

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is true in some instances.
That's kind of formally what the

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scientific method is.
Insisting you do test your

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hypothesis, try to falsify it.
If you don't, somebody else

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will.
Replication crisis is largely

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driven by people failing to try
to falsify their own hypothesis,

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and then other people did or
failed to replicate Is a form

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of, you know, falsification of a
test.

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That's that is formally how the
scientific method works,

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informally.
Scientists generally don't try

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to falsify their hypothesis,
they try to find more evidence

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to pile up in favor of the
hypothesis.

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So it's more Bayesian.
And I think the way the mind

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works is what drives scientists
when they're working in a

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Bayesian way, that is to say.
In in Bayesian reasoning, we

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want to apply some probability
of something being true or false

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somewhere between 0 and 100, or
let's say between one and 99.

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So in Bayesian reasoning there's
something called Cromwell's

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rule.
Oliver Cromwell, who famously

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said, I beseech you in the
bowels of Christ, you might be

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mistaken.
And so Cromwell's rule in

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Bayesian reasoning is you never
apply.

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A0 or A1.
That is, it's 100% false, or

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it's 100% true because nothing
is 100% false or 100% true.

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Anything could be true, so but
but not just anything in

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between.
It might be a 1% probability of

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being true or a 99% probability
of being true.

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Those are very different.
And so the way scientists work

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is that they really just try to
pile up more and more.

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Evidence to nudge the the
Bayesian probability higher and

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higher, the credence that is in
the jargon to getting other

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people to accept their theory
and so forth.

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Now so we have both of those,
both Poparian falsification and

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Bayesian reasoning going on in
science and in in our own minds

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as well, just the way the mind
works.

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There's even theories about how
in neuroscience, how neuro

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neural Nets a pile up.
Evidence for something to to

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make a connection, to actually
grow a new neural synaptic

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connections and so on in a
Bayesian way.

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That is, the more impulses that
are coming in, the stronger the

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synaptic connections become.
And then you, you know, have

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stronger memories and and so
forth.

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And that's in in kind of a
Bayesian way.

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So I think there's a lot.
There and and I really like the

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Bayesian method.
I've been doing this for a long

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time because it it gets people
off this binary way of thinking

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you know that your claim is
either true or false and if

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somebody you know thinks that it
might be true, then they they

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don't want to accept your your
challenge that it's false.

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So if you just say, well you
might be right.

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I mean it's possible.
I'm just not sure.

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You know, like what probability
would you put on your belief

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that most people, they've never
really thought of it like that?

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You know, I believe Jesus, you
know, died on the cross and was

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resurrected and so on.
Okay, you know, And if I say,

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well, I, I don't believe it,
it's false, you know, And then

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well, like, well, this is my
fate.

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So instead of saying, you know,
it's, it's a bunch of baloney

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and you should stop believing
it, how about, like, you know,

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that's possible.
It's not impossible.

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Could be.
But you know what?

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Let's put a probability on it.
What do you think the odds are

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of somebody who's actually
really dead?

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And then for three days?
You know, in a cave somewhere.

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And then they really come back
to life.

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I mean, we've heard stories
about this.

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And, you know, most people are
skeptical of most of these

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stories throughout history.
But for some reason, this one's

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stuck.
So maybe this is the one, you

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know, what are the odds of this
happening?

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Well, how many people have ever
lived, You know, before us,

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about 100 billion people have
lived and died.

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Not one of them has come back
from the dead, Or maybe 1.

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Maybe.
So it's, you know, one in 100

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billion.
Let's put that number on it.

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Okay.
Now is the evidence for this

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proportional to 100 billion to
one against?

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The answer is no.
It's it's not very good evidence

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at all.
It's all testimony.

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And it's not even very good
testimony, because eyewitness

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testimony is not a reliable
means of.

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Of knowledge.
That is justified true belief.

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Justifying your belief as being
true based on anecdotes alone is

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not enough.
Just take the recent UAP

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business.
You know that it's it's mostly

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almost entirely a series of
stories of people that says they

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say they know somebody who says
they saw something.

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Or at best, you get these grainy
videos of these blurry

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photographs that people can't
quite make out.

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You know that's just not enough
in science.

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I mean, it might be, but, you
know, it's you got to do better

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than that, you know.
And so we hear these stories in

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the congressional hearings last
month of, you know, well, we we

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actually, I know somebody who
knows somebody that saw the

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spaceships in the alien bodies.
Okay.

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Show it to us.
Oh, well, we can't.

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It's classified.
Okay.

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Well, why should I believe you?
Oh, this guy is trustworthy.

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He's a general or he's a captain
or he's a police.

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Officer.
Or he's a teacher, or he's the

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mayor or the governor, you know.
Then they start credentialing

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the the eyewitness to make the
testimony more valid.

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But that doesn't really help at
all, You know, it's like the

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analogy I make is like the
Chinese spy balloon.

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You know what?
What were the credentials of the

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pilot that shot it down?
Who knows?

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Who?
Who cares?

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It doesn't matter.
We all saw the Chinese Bible.

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There it is.
End of story.

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So you know, if you want to know
what it would take to convince

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me that the UA P's really
represent either aliens or some

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Russian or Chinese technology,
just show it to us.

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You know, we'll all believe it.
Everybody believes the Chinese

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Bible in the story.
There's there's no skeptics

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about that, you know or and so
on and that that's what it would

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take.
So you know, proportionally you

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got to have a lot of evidence
and something like the

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resurrection of Jesus just does
not rise to that level.

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Of evidentiary standards.
It just doesn't.

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Now if you want to say, well, I
don't care about that, I did.

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It's my faith.
You know, I I'm a Catholic and I

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believe that Jesus died for our
sins.

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And that's that's the story and
I'm not trying to prove it.

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Then then really my answer is
okay.

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Then there's nowhere to go
really from there.

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And and you know, it's in a way,
it's in a different realm of

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truth.
You know, what you and I are

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talking about are empirical
truths, truths we can actually

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get at with some evidence or
tests or something.

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But if you just say, I don't
really don't know, I just

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believe it okay, then that's in
kind of a different realm, more

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like.
Art or music or love or

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something like this, you know,
Like, you know, why do you like

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Michelangelo's statue of David
or this particular piece of

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music?
You know, a box concerto or

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something?
And often it's like, I don't

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know, I just think it's
beautiful, it moves my soul or

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something like that.
OK, you know that and you don't

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have to prove it right.
That's just a a subjective,

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personal belief about something
that you know, really.

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Science doesn't have much to say
about that.

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And and so I think religious
claims are more in that realm.

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I often say that I think it was
Raymond Tallis.

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I'm not sure if you're familiar
with his work but at some point

228
00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:45,120
he when I asked him about his
views on on God or anything in

229
00:12:45,680 --> 00:12:47,680
in terms of the nature of
reality, he said something quite

230
00:12:47,680 --> 00:12:49,280
beautiful that I often used
today.

231
00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:52,640
He said I'm ontologically
agnostic but epistemologically I

232
00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:55,200
can tell you that I don't think
it's true.

233
00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:58,810
And and that's sort of how I
label myself and in other words,

234
00:12:58,810 --> 00:13:02,330
I say I'm 99% atheist but I'm
100% agnostic.

235
00:13:02,330 --> 00:13:05,490
I don't really know or what's
happening here but I can tell

236
00:13:05,490 --> 00:13:07,770
you that from what I've gathered
about the nature of reality, I

237
00:13:07,770 --> 00:13:09,890
don't think this is a plausible
explanation.

238
00:13:10,090 --> 00:13:12,810
And often I get slack from from
both sides.

239
00:13:12,810 --> 00:13:16,450
I mean really saying that I've
got that 99% atheism, I get a

240
00:13:16,450 --> 00:13:18,410
lot of slack.
And then also just giving that

241
00:13:18,410 --> 00:13:21,650
leeway to that 1%, you get this
hard scientists who

242
00:13:21,850 --> 00:13:26,140
fundamentally don't believe that
there is a deist or theist who

243
00:13:26,140 --> 00:13:28,660
also come at me and I'm talking
about friends, family to be

244
00:13:28,660 --> 00:13:31,020
anyone.
Do you think that that non

245
00:13:31,020 --> 00:13:34,340
binary approach of actually
giving them the room that they

246
00:13:34,340 --> 00:13:39,060
deserve also creates a bit of a
chaos, a chaotic environment in

247
00:13:39,060 --> 00:13:42,620
terms of the debate?
Well, it no, it opens up the

248
00:13:42,620 --> 00:13:46,660
possibility that you could be
wrong and that and that is true.

249
00:13:46,660 --> 00:13:50,140
You could be wrong.
And by the way, that's the same

250
00:13:50,140 --> 00:13:52,100
answer I I give.
Who was it that you were

251
00:13:52,100 --> 00:13:53,660
quoting?
It's Raymond.

252
00:13:53,660 --> 00:13:57,340
Alice is a neuroscientist based
in England.

253
00:13:57,980 --> 00:14:00,020
OK, I don't.
I don't know his work, but that

254
00:14:00,020 --> 00:14:03,540
that's my answer to is
ontologically speaking, that is

255
00:14:03,660 --> 00:14:06,700
on the nature of reality.
I don't know if there's a God or

256
00:14:06,700 --> 00:14:08,620
not, and I'm not even sure it's
knowable.

257
00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:13,200
In some, again in this empirical
truth realm, you know, is there

258
00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:17,000
some experiment we're going to
run, You know, if we, if we

259
00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:20,200
continue to explore the universe
for the next 100,000 years where

260
00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:23,840
we encounter God, you know,
well, what if we encountered an

261
00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:28,080
extraterrestrial intelligence so
far advanced that they can

262
00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:32,000
create life forms, they can
structure DNA, make cells,

263
00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:37,080
create complex life, they can
geoengineer planets to become

264
00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:40,580
habitable.
They can create new solar

265
00:14:40,580 --> 00:14:45,220
systems by causing black hole,
you know causing, I don't know,

266
00:14:45,420 --> 00:14:48,180
dust clouds to coalesce in the
stars or causing stars to

267
00:14:48,180 --> 00:14:51,020
collapse into black holes and
create new universes.

268
00:14:51,420 --> 00:14:55,220
You know this is all pie in the
Sky scifi, but but but it, you

269
00:14:55,220 --> 00:14:57,980
know, science fiction riders
have people like Arthur C Clarke

270
00:14:57,980 --> 00:15:01,980
and Isaac Asimov and others have
has speculated how this could be

271
00:15:01,980 --> 00:15:03,140
done.
Yes.

272
00:15:03,380 --> 00:15:06,740
Well, if it, you know, a Dyson
sphere, for example.

273
00:15:06,740 --> 00:15:09,380
Is this just massive solar
panels around to start to

274
00:15:09,380 --> 00:15:12,220
capture most of the energy?
And now they're astronomers

275
00:15:12,620 --> 00:15:17,100
looking for remnants of a Dyson
sphere out there, And they found

276
00:15:17,100 --> 00:15:19,820
some tantalizing hints, but
nothing quite convincing yet.

277
00:15:20,420 --> 00:15:23,860
But what would you call?
An entity that could do things

278
00:15:23,860 --> 00:15:26,900
like that, create life,
geoengineer planets, create

279
00:15:26,900 --> 00:15:29,260
whole universes.
Well, that's what God does,

280
00:15:29,740 --> 00:15:30,940
right?
That's the very definition of

281
00:15:30,940 --> 00:15:33,540
God, that you know, the entity
that created all this.

282
00:15:34,220 --> 00:15:36,620
Well, how would you know if you
encountered an alien, that it

283
00:15:36,620 --> 00:15:38,460
wasn't God, or they're wanting
to say they're

284
00:15:38,460 --> 00:15:41,870
indistinguishable?
And so that that's what I call

285
00:15:41,870 --> 00:15:44,350
Shermer's Law, Last law.
Any sufficiently advanced

286
00:15:44,350 --> 00:15:48,430
extraterrestrial intelligence or
far future human I added would

287
00:15:48,430 --> 00:15:50,950
be indistinguishable from God,
which I got of course from

288
00:15:51,030 --> 00:15:53,790
Arthur C Clarke's Third Law.
Any sufficiently advanced

289
00:15:53,790 --> 00:15:55,750
technology is indistinguishable
from magic.

290
00:15:56,390 --> 00:16:00,070
That that to me puts religion
and the claim of God's

291
00:16:00,070 --> 00:16:03,170
existence.
In a different realm, because

292
00:16:03,170 --> 00:16:05,890
most believers in God, that's
not what they're thinking.

293
00:16:05,890 --> 00:16:08,650
They're not thinking, oh, this
is some super advanced

294
00:16:08,730 --> 00:16:11,370
extraterrestrial intelligence.
No, they think it's something,

295
00:16:12,010 --> 00:16:14,090
an entity outside of space and
time.

296
00:16:14,090 --> 00:16:17,850
It's not a physical, you know,
corporeal being.

297
00:16:17,850 --> 00:16:22,100
That's just really smart.
Most Christians especially in

298
00:16:22,100 --> 00:16:26,900
Jews and and Muslims.
So that accounts for what 6/6 to

299
00:16:26,900 --> 00:16:30,060
the 8 billion people on earth
you know they believe that this

300
00:16:30,060 --> 00:16:33,380
is something out of space and
time and that a miracle happened

301
00:16:33,380 --> 00:16:38,020
This this entity, this non
corporeal entity reached in to

302
00:16:38,020 --> 00:16:40,860
our world to stir the particles
for whatever they think

303
00:16:40,860 --> 00:16:42,460
happened.
You know the creation of life

304
00:16:42,460 --> 00:16:44,800
or?
Creation of complex life or

305
00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:50,520
creation of DNA or morality or
whatever, you know, So there.

306
00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:52,880
I just don't know how you could
test that.

307
00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:55,920
So I I'm, I just say, look, I
don't know, there could be a God

308
00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:59,080
if if, you know, when I close my
eyes for the last time here on

309
00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:02,280
this earth and I wake up and
there I am in this other realm

310
00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:06,079
and there's God and it's like,
Oh my God, I'd probably say

311
00:17:06,079 --> 00:17:07,520
something like that.
Oh my God.

312
00:17:08,079 --> 00:17:10,079
I thought this was all bullshit.
Oh no.

313
00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:14,720
Now what?
And I'm actually not worried

314
00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:15,839
about that.
I joke about it, but I'm

315
00:17:15,839 --> 00:17:18,599
actually not worried about it.
Because if if God really is all

316
00:17:18,599 --> 00:17:21,599
powerful, all knowing and all
loving, you know, how can he

317
00:17:21,599 --> 00:17:25,400
punish me for, you know, just
trying to understand the world?

318
00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:26,920
That's the he gave me this
brain.

319
00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:29,920
This what the brain does.
It it doubts things.

320
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:33,640
And that's got to be okay.
And anyway, so that's, that's

321
00:17:34,360 --> 00:17:36,200
now.
But so that, like you,

322
00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:38,360
ontologically speaking, that's
pure intellectual.

323
00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:40,440
I don't walk around the world
just like that.

324
00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:42,320
I walk around the world
assuming, well, there's probably

325
00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:44,760
no God.
And that kind of Bayesian with

326
00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:47,720
99 Percent, 99.9%, probably no
God.

327
00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:50,040
But, you know, of course I could
be wrong, but, you know, just in

328
00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:53,000
terms of leading my life from
day-to-day, I just, I don't

329
00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:54,320
think about it.
I don't go to church.

330
00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:56,240
I don't, you know, anything like
that.

331
00:17:57,520 --> 00:17:59,800
And it's often interesting
because you see the evolution of

332
00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:04,800
the way certain religions form,
and it's almost inescapable to

333
00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:08,720
apply sort of human or
anthropomorphize this or

334
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:13,720
anthropomorphize this, whatever
deity or being that they

335
00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:15,600
picture.
It's always got something to do

336
00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:17,840
with our sort of existence.
And yet, when we think about

337
00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:20,520
some sort of an extraterrestrial
intelligence, it will have

338
00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:22,480
almost nothing to do with what
we are.

339
00:18:23,930 --> 00:18:26,210
If you think about it from a
perspective of, OK, natural

340
00:18:26,210 --> 00:18:29,810
selection on Earth, focused and
honed its graph in a specific

341
00:18:29,810 --> 00:18:33,090
way because of the environment
we're in, and No2 environments

342
00:18:33,090 --> 00:18:35,210
ever display that sort of a
similarity?

343
00:18:35,210 --> 00:18:37,410
Unless, I mean odds
statistically it could would

344
00:18:37,410 --> 00:18:39,050
pop.
It might be possible actually,

345
00:18:40,850 --> 00:18:44,210
Do you think?
Yeah, I agree with you.

346
00:18:44,370 --> 00:18:45,570
What?
I agree with you.

347
00:18:45,570 --> 00:18:47,490
Whatever the aliens are going to
be like, they're not going to be

348
00:18:47,490 --> 00:18:49,850
like us.
I mean the chances of them being

349
00:18:49,850 --> 00:18:53,580
bipedal primates.
You know, with a big bulbous

350
00:18:53,580 --> 00:18:58,420
head and and almond shaped eyes
and a nose, two holes and two

351
00:18:58,420 --> 00:19:03,660
ears and you know, 4 limbs and
fingers.

352
00:19:04,060 --> 00:19:08,780
I mean this, this is a very
unique anatomical design that

353
00:19:08,780 --> 00:19:13,540
comes from the Tetrapod 4 limb
for example, with our, our, our

354
00:19:13,820 --> 00:19:15,900
our limbs.
You know, they dates back

355
00:19:15,900 --> 00:19:18,620
hundreds of millions of years to
the first fish that crawled out

356
00:19:18,620 --> 00:19:21,620
of the sea.
The tetrapod 4 limb, it's

357
00:19:21,620 --> 00:19:25,620
called, and the and the overall,
you know, symmetrical body plan

358
00:19:25,620 --> 00:19:28,020
and all that.
All that comes from, you know, a

359
00:19:28,020 --> 00:19:32,340
gazillion contingent
evolutionary steps from natural

360
00:19:32,340 --> 00:19:36,300
selection over eons of time.
The chances of all that

361
00:19:36,300 --> 00:19:39,540
happening on some other planet
is exactly the same pattern.

362
00:19:39,540 --> 00:19:43,500
To end up with something very
close to us is, you know, almost

363
00:19:43,500 --> 00:19:45,340
nil.
It's just not going to happen.

364
00:19:46,010 --> 00:19:48,850
Even with convergent evolution,
you know, on other planets with

365
00:19:49,050 --> 00:19:52,610
atmospheres and gravity and so
on, something like ours, oceans,

366
00:19:53,250 --> 00:19:56,050
you're going to get something
like fish in the water and birds

367
00:19:56,050 --> 00:19:59,530
in the air because anatomically
you have to have structures that

368
00:19:59,530 --> 00:20:01,810
can deal with the medium they're
pushing their way through.

369
00:20:02,330 --> 00:20:05,250
So if you're if you want to fly,
you have to have certain

370
00:20:05,570 --> 00:20:07,610
anatomical structures that are
able to do that.

371
00:20:07,610 --> 00:20:09,930
They're aerodynamically sound,
they're super lightweight.

372
00:20:10,370 --> 00:20:12,810
You know, fish, you have to have
that kind of fusiform body that

373
00:20:12,810 --> 00:20:16,110
can push through a dense medium.
You know, that kind of thing, if

374
00:20:16,110 --> 00:20:19,430
you're on land, you got to have
something like eyes to see and

375
00:20:19,510 --> 00:20:22,590
ears to hear and so on.
But if you just look around the

376
00:20:22,590 --> 00:20:25,510
experiments that natural
selection has run on Earth, the,

377
00:20:25,510 --> 00:20:29,110
you know, hundreds of millions
of species, you know, probably

378
00:20:29,110 --> 00:20:32,710
in the billions, you know, how
many times does the plan like

379
00:20:32,710 --> 00:20:34,190
ours?
It happened?

380
00:20:34,270 --> 00:20:38,110
Well, really just one lineage.
And, you know, several, 100,000

381
00:20:38,110 --> 00:20:41,780
years ago, there were maybe half
a dozen bipedal primates like

382
00:20:41,780 --> 00:20:44,300
us, and we're the last one
standing.

383
00:20:44,340 --> 00:20:47,300
We almost didn't make it.
You know, they talk about maybe

384
00:20:47,300 --> 00:20:50,540
100,000 years ago.
The entire world population of

385
00:20:50,540 --> 00:20:53,540
humans is less than 10,000.
Some people say even less than

386
00:20:53,540 --> 00:20:55,460
1000.
I mean, we could have easily

387
00:20:55,460 --> 00:20:59,140
gone extinct.
Neanderthals lasted hundreds of

388
00:20:59,140 --> 00:21:03,580
thousands of years in Europe
before Homo sapiens arrived, and

389
00:21:03,580 --> 00:21:06,740
they had tools and art and
something like art, I guess.

390
00:21:06,740 --> 00:21:10,350
Maybe not quite like Homo sapien
art, but probably they had

391
00:21:10,350 --> 00:21:14,030
language and so on and they
never developed, you know,

392
00:21:14,030 --> 00:21:17,910
technologies like ours.
I mean, there's no progress in

393
00:21:17,910 --> 00:21:21,190
evolution.
Like it's moving toward being a

394
00:21:21,630 --> 00:21:27,910
sentient, conscious, intelligent
species capable of Space Flight

395
00:21:27,910 --> 00:21:30,830
eventually and and so on.
You know, that that's just very

396
00:21:30,830 --> 00:21:32,750
unlikely.
So my answer to the Fermi

397
00:21:32,750 --> 00:21:36,870
question, where is everybody, is
that you can get all the way up

398
00:21:36,870 --> 00:21:40,630
to, from from bacteria to big
brains the size of Neanderthals

399
00:21:40,950 --> 00:21:43,990
and never make the next step.
Because they probably they were

400
00:21:43,990 --> 00:21:47,150
not going, they weren't heading
toward anything, they weren't

401
00:21:47,150 --> 00:21:49,790
becoming like us, they weren't
becoming anything.

402
00:21:49,790 --> 00:21:51,910
They were just well adapted to
do exactly what they did.

403
00:21:52,230 --> 00:21:54,550
So you can get all the, you can
get a planet to get all the way

404
00:21:54,550 --> 00:21:57,630
up to a Neanderthal level of
intelligence and never have

405
00:21:58,150 --> 00:22:01,950
radio communication and and
telescopes and spaceships and

406
00:22:01,950 --> 00:22:05,060
things like that.
And so I just think the chances

407
00:22:05,060 --> 00:22:07,220
of this happening anywhere else
is not zero.

408
00:22:08,380 --> 00:22:11,500
It's but it's low.
And the only reason why I'm

409
00:22:11,500 --> 00:22:14,420
willing to put a very high
number on the likelihood of

410
00:22:14,420 --> 00:22:16,780
there being extraterrestrial
intelligence is somewhere in the

411
00:22:16,780 --> 00:22:20,020
cosmos is it because of the
numbers are so, so huge, you

412
00:22:20,020 --> 00:22:22,700
know, hundreds of billions of
galaxies, each of which has

413
00:22:22,700 --> 00:22:25,580
hundreds of billions of stars,
each of which has planets, we

414
00:22:25,580 --> 00:22:28,460
now know.
And so just by the sheer numbers

415
00:22:28,460 --> 00:22:32,240
you're bound to get quite a few
a huge number that have the

416
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:35,960
right size planet at the right
distance from the star you know

417
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:39,000
in a fairly non elliptical
orbit.

418
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:42,480
So it's not you know too hot and
too cold with the right

419
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,080
atmosphere and on and on and all
the things in the Drake equation

420
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:48,440
you got to get right the chance
of that happening when you have

421
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:51,920
the it's a almost a trillion
galaxies either which has say

422
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:55,040
100 billion stars and so on.
So it's going to be a very high

423
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:58,930
number, but the chances of
finding us or us finding them is

424
00:22:59,010 --> 00:23:02,250
very, very slim.
You know, it's mostly empty

425
00:23:02,250 --> 00:23:05,210
space.
The analogy I was taught in when

426
00:23:05,210 --> 00:23:10,370
I took astronomy was imagine our
sun the size of an orange in LA,

427
00:23:10,370 --> 00:23:13,530
where, you know, I'm in Southern
California, the nearest star

428
00:23:13,530 --> 00:23:17,690
would be an orange in Chicago.
You know, it's just nothing.

429
00:23:17,690 --> 00:23:20,330
It's mostly just empty space,
unfathomable.

430
00:23:20,330 --> 00:23:23,850
So the chance it's truly
unfathomable, you know, the the

431
00:23:23,850 --> 00:23:27,410
Voyager spacecraft is, you know,
hauling assets 70,000 miles an

432
00:23:27,410 --> 00:23:29,210
hour.
If it were going to the nearest

433
00:23:29,210 --> 00:23:32,330
star, which it isn't, it would
still take, I don't know, it was

434
00:23:32,330 --> 00:23:36,610
like 80,000 years to get there.
I mean, it's just the chances of

435
00:23:36,610 --> 00:23:38,810
them fine.
And then not only do they find

436
00:23:38,810 --> 00:23:42,650
us, you know, they they somehow
keep crashing in the New Mexico

437
00:23:42,650 --> 00:23:46,680
desert or whatever, and they.
And they're not wiped out.

438
00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:48,560
They're, you know, they're still
alive.

439
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:51,880
And it turns out they're bipedal
primates that somehow understand

440
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:56,520
us and want to have sex with us
and and probe us and, you know,

441
00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:59,640
take the parts of cattle.
You know, I mean, come on,

442
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:03,880
really, it's just the story is
just literally unbelievable.

443
00:24:05,120 --> 00:24:07,320
I'm just thinking about you.
I mean, you've got feel like

444
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,120
Office Office Clark and Isaac
Asimov as like heroes.

445
00:24:11,120 --> 00:24:13,160
Have you ever read?
I think it was a short story

446
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:17,080
that Isaac Asimov wrote Hero 2.
Something was, I think it was in

447
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:19,720
the beginning and and at the
end, I'm not sure.

448
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:21,200
Have you read those short
stories?

449
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:23,960
No, I don't know those.
I will try and get the actual

450
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:25,680
name of those and send it to you
because I think you'll love it.

451
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:27,680
It's it's it's such an amazing
short story.

452
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,400
So basically I can't remember
the first one, but the second

453
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:33,680
one he talks about almost a
teleological process of how this

454
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:37,080
universe is sort of untwining
forward and and artificial

455
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,920
intelligence plays a huge role
within that, but to a point

456
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:43,720
where it becomes so complex that
we have no frame of reference as

457
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:46,530
to what this thing is doing.
Not at all.

458
00:24:46,530 --> 00:24:50,450
And he persistently asks, it
asks itself, what is the meaning

459
00:24:50,450 --> 00:24:51,930
of the universe or what is the
meaning of life?

460
00:24:51,970 --> 00:24:54,690
And this thing just continuously
evolves to a point where it

461
00:24:54,690 --> 00:24:59,050
never really gets that answer,
but yet at the same time takes

462
00:24:59,050 --> 00:25:02,050
over the entire universe.
So it's a pretty neat story.

463
00:25:02,810 --> 00:25:05,490
With that in mind, do you think
there's some sort of teleology

464
00:25:05,490 --> 00:25:07,850
occurring here, even if it's got
nothing to do with religion?

465
00:25:09,620 --> 00:25:11,260
Yeah, let's explore that for a
second.

466
00:25:11,260 --> 00:25:14,140
But first let me make a note
that if we did encounter

467
00:25:14,180 --> 00:25:18,740
extraterrestrial intelligences,
that is not my idea, but it's

468
00:25:18,740 --> 00:25:22,580
not likely to be biological.
You know, you hear this David

469
00:25:22,580 --> 00:25:24,900
Grush talking about, you know,
non human biologics.

470
00:25:24,900 --> 00:25:28,940
So I I posted a a tweet the
other day of a of a flower

471
00:25:29,980 --> 00:25:32,860
plant.
I mean, it was a bird, bird,

472
00:25:32,940 --> 00:25:36,930
bird, bird of paradise plant
going here it is.

473
00:25:36,930 --> 00:25:41,130
It's not human biologic.
They're all over the place.

474
00:25:42,050 --> 00:25:45,850
My dog is a non human biologic
anyway, but a lot of people like

475
00:25:45,850 --> 00:25:48,530
my my friend and colleague Abby
Loeb at Harvard who's running

476
00:25:48,530 --> 00:25:51,250
the Galileo project, you know,
he thinks it's much more likely

477
00:25:51,250 --> 00:25:55,690
we would encounter an A I just
because it's so much cheaper to

478
00:25:55,690 --> 00:25:59,360
build a small computer than sand
of biologic, you know, through

479
00:25:59,360 --> 00:26:01,240
space.
It's, you know, it's as we know

480
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,040
from just trying to get humans
to the moon and now to Mars.

481
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:07,360
You know, it's just massively
expensive to move something that

482
00:26:07,360 --> 00:26:11,320
big and have to accommodate, you
know, an atmosphere and waste

483
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:14,680
disposal and food and all that.
You know, computers don't need

484
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:17,000
any of that.
They can operate at cold

485
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,120
temperatures without air and
they don't need food and they

486
00:26:20,120 --> 00:26:22,920
just need some energy and you
just you can power them with,

487
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:25,040
you know, nuclear cells and so
on.

488
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:30,210
So you know, if if that's the
way we're going, robotic

489
00:26:30,210 --> 00:26:32,770
spacecraft that are getting
smaller and smaller, then that's

490
00:26:32,770 --> 00:26:35,050
probably what aliens would do.
So if we found something, it

491
00:26:35,050 --> 00:26:38,210
would probably be technological,
which is what Avi was trying to

492
00:26:38,210 --> 00:26:42,650
do with scraping the bottom of
the ocean floor in in the ocean

493
00:26:42,650 --> 00:26:45,610
near Papua New Guinea this
summer to try to find the

494
00:26:45,610 --> 00:26:49,620
remnants of this interstellar,
probably interstellar meteor

495
00:26:49,620 --> 00:26:53,420
that crashed there.
Maybe the debris is of of a

496
00:26:53,780 --> 00:26:57,980
material that is not natural.
Anyway, we'll we'll see the

497
00:26:57,980 --> 00:27:00,900
results of that soon enough.
Probably not but but that's the

498
00:27:00,900 --> 00:27:04,620
idea.
Okay teleological you know there

499
00:27:04,620 --> 00:27:06,620
are there.
There's nothing directional

500
00:27:06,620 --> 00:27:13,260
about evolution from the top
down that is obvious.

501
00:27:13,740 --> 00:27:18,180
You know, there's there's a bias
in Western culture to see

502
00:27:18,180 --> 00:27:21,180
progress everywhere and in a lot
of times there really is

503
00:27:21,180 --> 00:27:23,220
progress.
And but even in like

504
00:27:23,220 --> 00:27:26,580
paleoanthropology you'll you'll
see descriptions of like a

505
00:27:26,580 --> 00:27:31,900
Neanderthal jaw or a or a Homo
erectus skull or something like

506
00:27:31,900 --> 00:27:34,180
that.
That it's, you know, it's it's

507
00:27:34,180 --> 00:27:36,940
almost human or it's becoming
human or it's like, you know,

508
00:27:36,940 --> 00:27:39,130
it's almost like ours.
Our molar.

509
00:27:39,130 --> 00:27:42,490
It's almost like a human molar
to as if this Organism is

510
00:27:42,490 --> 00:27:45,850
striving to become us like, oh,
if I just keep working at it,

511
00:27:46,090 --> 00:27:47,450
you know, maybe I'll become a
homo safety.

512
00:27:47,450 --> 00:27:49,290
No, there's nothing like that in
evolution.

513
00:27:49,930 --> 00:27:52,490
Most species are doing just fine
the way they are.

514
00:27:52,650 --> 00:27:56,210
They don't need to change
constantly, much less in a

515
00:27:56,210 --> 00:27:59,410
particular direction.
It would only be on the grandest

516
00:27:59,410 --> 00:28:03,610
of scales where, you know, if
there were certain environmental

517
00:28:03,610 --> 00:28:08,210
changes that drove species to,
say, develop larger brains like

518
00:28:08,210 --> 00:28:10,650
we did.
But even that, you know, we,

519
00:28:10,650 --> 00:28:12,770
we're not quite sure.
You know, there's different

520
00:28:12,770 --> 00:28:14,810
theories about this.
Why do we have such big brains?

521
00:28:14,810 --> 00:28:19,610
Why do we have the capacity for
language and and symbolic

522
00:28:19,610 --> 00:28:22,660
communication, mathematical
reasoning, aesthetic

523
00:28:22,660 --> 00:28:25,620
appreciation, you know, music,
art, literature.

524
00:28:25,620 --> 00:28:26,980
Why don't we have all these
things?

525
00:28:26,980 --> 00:28:29,900
No other species has them, and
they do just fine.

526
00:28:30,100 --> 00:28:32,260
You don't need any of that.
This was Alfred Russell

527
00:28:32,260 --> 00:28:36,100
Wallace's argument later in his
life against Darwin that he kind

528
00:28:36,100 --> 00:28:39,380
of broke with Darwin on this.
Wallace felt like there's some

529
00:28:39,380 --> 00:28:43,620
directionality behind all this
because natural selection would

530
00:28:43,620 --> 00:28:48,650
never bother creating a brain
the size of ours with all these

531
00:28:49,050 --> 00:28:52,050
capacities that are not needed
for survival.

532
00:28:52,050 --> 00:28:54,850
If if you just need to survive
and get your genes in the next

533
00:28:54,850 --> 00:28:58,330
generation, you don't need to be
able to do calculus and all this

534
00:28:58,330 --> 00:28:59,930
other stuff we can do.
Now.

535
00:28:59,930 --> 00:29:03,330
Darwin and others, you know,
they thought that's too what we

536
00:29:03,330 --> 00:29:06,210
now call hyperselectionism.
That is, a lot of things in

537
00:29:06,210 --> 00:29:09,570
evolution happen by accident.
Or they had some other purpose

538
00:29:09,570 --> 00:29:13,290
and they got coopted for a new
purpose in a later generation.

539
00:29:13,700 --> 00:29:16,820
Like wings, you know, this is,
this is called the incipient

540
00:29:16,860 --> 00:29:19,020
stage problem.
You know what good is half a

541
00:29:19,020 --> 00:29:20,420
wing?
You know it's not

542
00:29:20,420 --> 00:29:22,820
aerodynamically sound.
You can't fly with a little nub

543
00:29:22,820 --> 00:29:24,220
sticking out of the side of your
body.

544
00:29:24,220 --> 00:29:24,700
What?
What?

545
00:29:25,300 --> 00:29:29,660
Why would evolution drive the
selection of these structures to

546
00:29:29,660 --> 00:29:31,580
eventually become
aerodynamically sound?

547
00:29:31,780 --> 00:29:33,140
There must be directionality to
it.

548
00:29:33,620 --> 00:29:36,540
And the answer evolutionists
give is no, it was not a poorly

549
00:29:36,540 --> 00:29:38,340
designed wing.
It was a well designed something

550
00:29:38,340 --> 00:29:41,730
else, you know, solar, a solar
collector, you know, heat

551
00:29:41,730 --> 00:29:44,530
dispersal mechanism or something
like this.

552
00:29:44,530 --> 00:29:47,850
And it's different theory.
Yeah, there's something, you

553
00:29:47,850 --> 00:29:49,170
know, there's different theories
about this.

554
00:29:49,170 --> 00:29:51,890
And even with things like
mathematical reasoning and

555
00:29:51,890 --> 00:29:54,170
aesthetic appreciation, music,
art, literature, dance and so

556
00:29:54,170 --> 00:29:56,770
on, that maybe it's a sexual
selection.

557
00:29:56,770 --> 00:30:01,490
This was Darwin's second theory
and the descent to man that

558
00:30:01,490 --> 00:30:05,330
sexual that is.
These are characteristics that

559
00:30:05,330 --> 00:30:10,250
appeal to mates and therefore
they have value for getting your

560
00:30:10,250 --> 00:30:14,370
genes in the next generation
through that Ave. not just

561
00:30:14,370 --> 00:30:17,570
escaping prey or being
camouflaged or anything like

562
00:30:17,570 --> 00:30:20,970
that.
Anyway, so my point is that we

563
00:30:20,970 --> 00:30:22,850
don't have a definitive answer
to that question.

564
00:30:22,850 --> 00:30:24,930
Why do we have such big brains
that are able to do all this

565
00:30:24,930 --> 00:30:28,130
stuff?
If you stick strictly to the

566
00:30:28,780 --> 00:30:31,300
natural selection model, you end
up like Wallace going, There's

567
00:30:31,300 --> 00:30:35,140
got to be something else out
there pulling us toward it or

568
00:30:35,260 --> 00:30:37,260
giving us a push in this
direction.

569
00:30:37,900 --> 00:30:40,700
And most evolutionary theorists
don't think that at all.

570
00:30:40,700 --> 00:30:43,580
They think, no, no, it's just
there's something else going on

571
00:30:43,580 --> 00:30:46,740
here.
And and so you get this.

572
00:30:46,740 --> 00:30:48,380
I mentioned convergent
evolution.

573
00:30:48,780 --> 00:30:54,140
You know, the expert on this is
Simon Conway Morris, by the way.

574
00:30:54,140 --> 00:30:58,380
He his book on this was called
Life Solution and he makes the

575
00:30:58,380 --> 00:31:01,740
point that I mentioned that you
know if you have a planet where

576
00:31:01,740 --> 00:31:05,740
there's, you know, certain
atmosphere density of the water,

577
00:31:05,740 --> 00:31:08,900
density of the air, you just by
physics alone you're going to

578
00:31:08,900 --> 00:31:12,020
end up with body types and limbs
that are of a certain nature

579
00:31:12,180 --> 00:31:14,380
because that's what works by
physics.

580
00:31:15,220 --> 00:31:19,980
And so, he argued, you're going
to end up with something like a

581
00:31:19,980 --> 00:31:24,510
head with sensory apparatus on
one end and the waste disposal

582
00:31:24,750 --> 00:31:27,630
system at the other end, and
limbs to move around the land,

583
00:31:27,630 --> 00:31:32,990
or wings to fly, fins to swim,
and so on, that you might end up

584
00:31:32,990 --> 00:31:36,510
with organisms that are not
terribly different from what we

585
00:31:36,510 --> 00:31:39,710
see on Earth.
But my rebuttal of that is just

586
00:31:39,710 --> 00:31:43,150
look around Earth.
I mean look at octopus in order

587
00:31:43,150 --> 00:31:46,790
to you know just this incredible
diversity of organisms where

588
00:31:46,790 --> 00:31:50,590
there's not a lot of convergence
there in any big picture

589
00:31:51,260 --> 00:31:53,820
development.
Now here I'll I'll give a plug

590
00:31:53,820 --> 00:31:58,980
for the book nonzero William.
Right.

591
00:31:59,740 --> 00:32:02,740
Sorry, Robert Wright's book,
which I really love that book.

592
00:32:02,740 --> 00:32:05,140
And you know, he he does
postulate that kind of

593
00:32:05,140 --> 00:32:10,540
directionality in a game theory
analysis that in the long run if

594
00:32:10,900 --> 00:32:15,620
all organisms are selfish and
just hoard resources and and in

595
00:32:15,620 --> 00:32:19,860
our violence and so on, that
will be selected against in the

596
00:32:19,860 --> 00:32:21,420
long run.
They could, they could you know,

597
00:32:21,420 --> 00:32:24,860
free riders and cheaters and so
on can get away with stuff for a

598
00:32:24,860 --> 00:32:26,540
while.
But eventually the group can't

599
00:32:26,540 --> 00:32:29,100
survive like that.
So there's a pressure to

600
00:32:29,340 --> 00:32:32,700
domesticate yourself, stop being
so violent, be more pro, social,

601
00:32:33,100 --> 00:32:36,340
cooperative, altruistic.
Ultimately, this ends up with,

602
00:32:36,380 --> 00:32:39,940
you know, love and connectedness
and bondedness between species.

603
00:32:39,940 --> 00:32:42,760
If you're a mammal, right?
Anyway, he takes a big picture

604
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,600
and shows how that may even
apply to the development of

605
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:49,840
civilizations and so on.
Most people don't go as far as

606
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:53,480
as as Bob Wright does on that,
but but it's not a completely

607
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:57,560
crazy idea ultimately.
In other words, if there are

608
00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:01,400
other extraterrestrials out
there, or God, you know, it

609
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:05,550
might be something like us that
are pro social, cooperative, and

610
00:33:05,550 --> 00:33:07,230
so on.
Therefore we don't have to worry

611
00:33:07,230 --> 00:33:09,950
about contacting aliens.
They're not going to enslave us,

612
00:33:09,950 --> 00:33:13,230
eat us, whatever they're not,
they're not going to be.

613
00:33:13,230 --> 00:33:18,470
You can't be evil and
colonialists and enslavers and

614
00:33:18,470 --> 00:33:22,580
achieve extra, achieve Space
Flight and all that kind of

615
00:33:22,580 --> 00:33:23,860
stuff.
It's just you need more

616
00:33:23,860 --> 00:33:25,780
cooperation.
Anyway, I'm kind of rambling

617
00:33:25,780 --> 00:33:28,460
here, but that you know that
that's the idea.

618
00:33:28,460 --> 00:33:31,380
It it could happen, there could
be some directionality to it.

619
00:33:31,780 --> 00:33:35,900
But I don't go as far as say Bob
Ryder or his predecessor TLR de

620
00:33:35,900 --> 00:33:39,820
Chardon with his new sphere
where, you know, the the planet

621
00:33:39,820 --> 00:33:42,460
is becoming conscious and you
know, he's been kind of

622
00:33:42,460 --> 00:33:43,860
resurrected because of the
Internet.

623
00:33:44,260 --> 00:33:46,540
Maybe the Internet is our global
brain.

624
00:33:47,060 --> 00:33:51,160
So, yeah, but there's nothing,
there's nothing inevitable about

625
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,120
this.
You know, it it took, you know,

626
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:56,840
capitalism to develop
technologies and companies that

627
00:33:57,400 --> 00:33:59,760
profit by doing this.
That's a unique, you know,

628
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,160
political economic system that
drives the development of this

629
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:05,160
technology.
Nothing inevitable about that.

630
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:08,920
And I'm not even sure what it
would mean to say the Internet

631
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:13,199
is now conscious or sentient.
It, you know, these are just

632
00:34:13,199 --> 00:34:14,800
devices.
These are, you know you have

633
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:19,010
these massive warehouses of
servers the the cloud people

634
00:34:19,010 --> 00:34:22,010
talk about the cloud is if it's
this airy fairy like quantum

635
00:34:22,010 --> 00:34:25,449
field out there and and you know
all of our information is

636
00:34:25,690 --> 00:34:27,969
floating around out there that
that's not what the cloud is.

637
00:34:29,370 --> 00:34:32,210
You still gotta have the
physical hardware somewhere to

638
00:34:32,210 --> 00:34:35,050
store all this stuff, right?
Yeah, so.

639
00:34:35,690 --> 00:34:37,370
It's true.
I think the more technology gets

640
00:34:37,730 --> 00:34:41,010
more and more advanced, we tend
to misinterpret what it actually

641
00:34:41,010 --> 00:34:42,810
is at some point.
I mean when we used to see it

642
00:34:42,810 --> 00:34:46,810
back in the day with all these
massive hardware computers.

643
00:34:47,290 --> 00:34:49,449
That's when people could tell,
OK, this is very mechanical, but

644
00:34:49,449 --> 00:34:51,850
now it slowly blurs that line
the more we don't see what's

645
00:34:51,850 --> 00:34:54,210
really happening, the fact that
everything's transmitted by

646
00:34:54,210 --> 00:34:56,210
radio waves, etc.
And I think that's another

647
00:34:56,210 --> 00:34:57,730
thing.
I mean, for all we know, another

648
00:34:57,850 --> 00:35:00,970
type of intelligence could use
could be light.

649
00:35:01,010 --> 00:35:02,770
It could be anything.
It could, it could be so

650
00:35:02,770 --> 00:35:06,090
completely absurdly different
from what we what we're

651
00:35:06,090 --> 00:35:08,650
expecting that we'll have no
access to the sort of

652
00:35:08,650 --> 00:35:10,490
information.
Something I find quite

653
00:35:10,490 --> 00:35:13,450
fascinating though is when
people talk about, I mean we're

654
00:35:13,450 --> 00:35:15,370
discussing evolution and how
natural selection plays a

655
00:35:15,370 --> 00:35:19,000
pivotal role and.
And crafting these organisms and

656
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:22,320
non directionally.
But a lot of people still don't

657
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:23,480
really.
Even when they talk about

658
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:25,720
evolution and Darwinian natural
selection, they still have the

659
00:35:25,720 --> 00:35:28,920
sort of Lamarckian view of what
this is and I think that tends

660
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,720
to blur the reality.
What does any of your research

661
00:35:31,720 --> 00:35:36,960
or work has to say about that?
Well, interestingly, yeah.

662
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:41,520
So a lamarquean view of
evolution that is, you know, you

663
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:43,520
can kind of will things to
change.

664
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:47,360
Or, you know, the giraffe
stretches its neck and the baby

665
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:49,480
giraffes have longer necks.
OK, That doesn't work.

666
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:54,080
Now the body builders don't have
children with bigger muscles.

667
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:55,880
Right.
Or the Jewish right of

668
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:58,440
circumcision.
For thousands of years, you

669
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:00,880
know, they've been cutting off
the foreskin of little babies,

670
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,360
and babies are stillborn with
foreskins, even in Jewish

671
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:05,560
families.
So it doesn't change the

672
00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:09,660
germline at all, but that is our
intuition, you know, and we know

673
00:36:09,660 --> 00:36:15,780
this from research by caught in
a psychologist like see, I think

674
00:36:15,780 --> 00:36:17,700
I have his forthcoming book
here.

675
00:36:18,460 --> 00:36:20,540
Anyway, that's escapes me at the
moment.

676
00:36:21,460 --> 00:36:26,540
The title of his book is.
But the ideas is if you ask

677
00:36:26,540 --> 00:36:29,460
people if they accept the theory
of evolution, you know, most

678
00:36:29,660 --> 00:36:33,340
most students say yeah of course
describe it, how does it work?

679
00:36:33,540 --> 00:36:35,180
And most people don't know how
it works.

680
00:36:37,310 --> 00:36:39,710
They, you know, they invoke
something like a lamarchian

681
00:36:39,710 --> 00:36:42,230
explanation.
So when they're saying they

682
00:36:42,230 --> 00:36:44,790
believe in evolution, they're
really just kind of publicly

683
00:36:44,790 --> 00:36:46,790
signaling.
I trust the science.

684
00:36:47,190 --> 00:36:48,910
And I guess those scientists
know what they're doing.

685
00:36:48,910 --> 00:36:51,470
They usually get it right.
So everyone seems to think

686
00:36:51,470 --> 00:36:53,110
evolution's true.
So yeah, okay.

687
00:36:53,550 --> 00:36:57,470
I accept it.
A stoolman, Andrew Stoolman, is,

688
00:36:57,470 --> 00:37:01,030
is is he's a psychologist at
Occidental College.

689
00:37:01,030 --> 00:37:03,470
Andrew Stoolman.
And this was part of his

690
00:37:03,470 --> 00:37:04,550
research.
You know what?

691
00:37:04,550 --> 00:37:05,950
What?
You know, what do people

692
00:37:05,950 --> 00:37:07,790
understand about evolution?
And they don't.

693
00:37:07,790 --> 00:37:12,350
They really don't understand it.
That kind of population genetics

694
00:37:12,710 --> 00:37:15,350
thinking, you know, it's just
counterintuitive.

695
00:37:16,310 --> 00:37:19,270
And it turns out this is true
for most things.

696
00:37:19,310 --> 00:37:22,910
If you want to broaden the the
model a little bit, you know, if

697
00:37:22,910 --> 00:37:26,750
you ask people, you know what
what their opinion is on NAFTRA,

698
00:37:26,950 --> 00:37:29,790
the North American Free Trade
Agreement, you know, people go,

699
00:37:29,830 --> 00:37:32,070
Oh yeah, I accept it.
Or no, I'm against it.

700
00:37:32,190 --> 00:37:36,030
Look at what is it?
So it's that thing, you know,

701
00:37:36,030 --> 00:37:38,870
with the I don't even know what
countries it is, but I'm against

702
00:37:38,870 --> 00:37:41,030
it.
They're they're mostly publicly

703
00:37:41,030 --> 00:37:45,550
signaling what their party says
about it or their candidates or,

704
00:37:45,550 --> 00:37:48,830
you know, whatever the latest
trend is in their tribes to to

705
00:37:48,990 --> 00:37:51,510
accept it or reject it.
And and that turns out to be

706
00:37:51,510 --> 00:37:53,670
true across the board.
I mean, most people don't

707
00:37:53,670 --> 00:37:56,610
understand most things and how
could you?

708
00:37:56,850 --> 00:37:59,450
I mean most of these issues are
complex and who has time?

709
00:37:59,450 --> 00:38:01,050
Most of us are just trying to
lead our lives.

710
00:38:01,050 --> 00:38:04,930
So, you know, much of what we
accept is true or we don't

711
00:38:05,090 --> 00:38:08,290
accept it as true is based on
the the what the people around

712
00:38:08,290 --> 00:38:11,050
us think.
You know, it's sort of a, you

713
00:38:11,050 --> 00:38:13,130
know, pull the audience to find
out what's true.

714
00:38:13,570 --> 00:38:16,570
And most of the time that that's
a reasonable way of

715
00:38:16,570 --> 00:38:19,530
understanding nature and reality
is you know, what?

716
00:38:19,530 --> 00:38:20,850
What?
What are other people doing?

717
00:38:21,380 --> 00:38:23,220
You know, And if they're doing
something, if they're running

718
00:38:23,220 --> 00:38:26,500
away from something, oh, maybe I
better run away to just in case,

719
00:38:26,500 --> 00:38:27,820
because they know something I
don't know.

720
00:38:28,460 --> 00:38:31,260
And usually that works up, you
know, a lot of these classic

721
00:38:31,260 --> 00:38:35,110
psychic experiments, kind of
gorilla theater from the 1960s

722
00:38:35,110 --> 00:38:37,950
and 70s where we're going to set
up a thing in the elevator where

723
00:38:37,950 --> 00:38:40,590
everybody faces backwards.
And then the, you know,

724
00:38:40,590 --> 00:38:42,070
everybody's a shill for the
experiment.

725
00:38:42,190 --> 00:38:44,390
Let's see what happens when the
person gets on the elevator.

726
00:38:44,390 --> 00:38:46,350
It's like a candid camera.
Hahaha.

727
00:38:46,790 --> 00:38:48,710
You know, they all conform to
the crowd.

728
00:38:48,710 --> 00:38:51,190
This is so dumb.
Look how stupid they are.

729
00:38:51,190 --> 00:38:54,590
And conforming.
You know, we the pumping smoke

730
00:38:54,590 --> 00:38:57,710
in the room and everybody in the
room is a shill except the one

731
00:38:57,710 --> 00:38:59,830
guy, and he's sitting there
filling out his form, going,

732
00:39:00,590 --> 00:39:02,030
well, no one else is doing
anything.

733
00:39:02,030 --> 00:39:03,550
I guess I'll just sit here like
an idiot.

734
00:39:04,150 --> 00:39:07,310
Well, but.
But in a way, you know, social

735
00:39:07,310 --> 00:39:11,230
proof is a is a generally
reliable method because if there

736
00:39:11,230 --> 00:39:13,630
really was smoke coming in the
room, there really was a fire in

737
00:39:13,630 --> 00:39:15,670
the building.
People wouldn't just be sitting

738
00:39:15,670 --> 00:39:18,070
there filling out a form because
the experimenter told them to.

739
00:39:18,150 --> 00:39:20,990
They'd really get up and move
and then the and the subject

740
00:39:20,990 --> 00:39:22,310
would go, yeah, I'm out of here
too.

741
00:39:22,870 --> 00:39:26,070
So it's not stupid.
We're not irrational in that

742
00:39:26,070 --> 00:39:28,870
sense.
Well, adaptive feature files,

743
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:32,720
yes, and for the most part it
usually works.

744
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:36,160
It's good enough for
understanding the world.

745
00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:39,360
And I think so.
One of the great ways to try and

746
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:43,400
avoid this.
It will be easily influenced by

747
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:47,640
others and by allowing certain
game theories to almost.

748
00:39:48,050 --> 00:39:52,370
Absorb your entire life is to do
what you call skepticism 101.

749
00:39:52,450 --> 00:39:54,450
And I think, I mean you teach
the literary teachers as a

750
00:39:54,450 --> 00:39:57,410
course at university.
How can we better think about

751
00:39:57,450 --> 00:40:00,330
concepts in general?
And I think it's important for

752
00:40:00,330 --> 00:40:02,250
the listeners and views to
understand exactly what you're

753
00:40:02,250 --> 00:40:04,810
doing there, because people are
just assuming this is just okay

754
00:40:05,010 --> 00:40:06,930
maintaining that cynicism you
discussed earlier.

755
00:40:06,930 --> 00:40:08,730
But it's not.
You're actually teaching them

756
00:40:08,730 --> 00:40:12,210
tools and tricks to think.
It's almost like intuition pumps

757
00:40:12,210 --> 00:40:15,570
that Daniel then it talks about
for everything.

758
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:19,560
Yeah, that's right.
So I'm trying to teach my

759
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:21,400
students how to think about
things.

760
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:24,080
I just want to think because I
don't know what's going to come

761
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:26,840
down to the Pike 10 years from
now that they encounter in the

762
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:29,480
news.
And how should they think about

763
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:30,240
it?
I don't know.

764
00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:34,800
So, I mean, they don't know, but
but after they take my course,

765
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:36,040
so they.
Oh, yeah, right.

766
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:40,320
I should be skeptical until the
evidence is strong.

767
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:43,000
I should apportion my beliefs to
the power of the evidence.

768
00:40:44,240 --> 00:40:46,640
Extraordinary claims require
extraordinary evidence.

769
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:49,960
You know, watch out for anomaly
hunting and the file drawer

770
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:54,840
problem where you know all the
negative results get filed away

771
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:57,720
and we only see the published
positive results.

772
00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:01,120
You know, the counterfactuals.
What else would have to be true

773
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:03,320
if this was true?
And let's run some

774
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:05,680
counterfactual experiments, just
things like that.

775
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:09,720
So I have 15 weeks of these
different tools that we go

776
00:41:09,720 --> 00:41:13,670
through and you know, it's just,
it's just a useful way of how to

777
00:41:13,670 --> 00:41:16,430
think about the world.
Steve Pinker has a similar

778
00:41:16,430 --> 00:41:18,270
course at Harvard called
Rationality.

779
00:41:18,510 --> 00:41:21,430
His book is called rationality
and same kind of thing.

780
00:41:21,430 --> 00:41:25,070
You know, it's statistical
theory, signal detection theory,

781
00:41:25,270 --> 00:41:29,230
Bayesian reasoning, logic, all
the logical fallacies, cognitive

782
00:41:29,230 --> 00:41:32,990
biases and all these things are
are tools that are handy to

783
00:41:32,990 --> 00:41:35,550
have.
And they they have for the most

784
00:41:35,550 --> 00:41:37,230
part trickled it out.
I think to the general

785
00:41:37,230 --> 00:41:39,510
population.
You'll hear people talking about

786
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:41,960
their priors.
Oh, I'm going to adjust my

787
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:46,640
priors and change my credence.
Whoa, are you You know, do you

788
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:48,040
know the mathematics behind
that?

789
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:50,480
Most people don't.
I even have to look it up.

790
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:52,000
Like what was the formula again?
Okay.

791
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:54,920
Got a lecture on this tomorrow I
better bone upon what that

792
00:41:55,240 --> 00:41:57,720
Bayesian equation was again and
so on.

793
00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:02,680
But the but the general idea you
know, don't assign a zero or or

794
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:08,000
A1, just something in between
one and 99 and and and and just

795
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:12,480
adjust your beliefs up or down
based on new evidence that comes

796
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:16,240
in so you know people are I get
hammered on social media for you

797
00:42:16,240 --> 00:42:18,520
know why are you so skeptical.
These UA P's haven't you heard

798
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:20,800
those stories are incredible
stories like well first of all

799
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:23,840
I've been doing this for 30
years and I've heard these every

800
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:26,480
year for 30 years and not once
have they ever come true.

801
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:29,080
And the evidence is no better
than it ever was.

802
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:32,480
It's the same old blurry videos
and grainy photographs and

803
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:36,280
stories about things in the sky.
You know, you got to do better

804
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:38,480
than that.
I'm willing to, you know, change

805
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:41,400
my mind.
You know, Marco Rubio gets into

806
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:44,560
one of those warehouses where
the spacecraft and the alien

807
00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:48,520
nonhuman biologics are located.
And he comes out and goes, Oh my

808
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:49,920
God, you're not going to believe
this.

809
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,520
We have the aliens.
Here it is.

810
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:55,680
And he shows his pictures, and
here's the video and takes the

811
00:42:55,680 --> 00:42:57,400
camera crew in there.
Look, here they are.

812
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:00,960
We, you know, the government is
going to admit we we have these

813
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:03,280
Okay.
I I would accept that in the

814
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:05,350
same way I did the Chinese spy
balloon.

815
00:43:05,350 --> 00:43:08,150
I never saw this Chinese spy
balloon myself didn't fly over

816
00:43:08,150 --> 00:43:10,990
to Southern California.
But I accept that, you know, the

817
00:43:10,990 --> 00:43:14,550
media and the military and the
Pentagon and the president and

818
00:43:15,030 --> 00:43:16,990
you know, everybody that covered
that story.

819
00:43:17,190 --> 00:43:20,310
They got it right, even though I
didn't see it personally myself

820
00:43:20,790 --> 00:43:23,110
and you know, so that that's
what it would take.

821
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:26,320
Yeah, I mean you mentioned
briefly, I mean we've got these

822
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:29,000
psychological tools like these
biases we can practice and train

823
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:32,120
on those philosophical ones like
logical fallacies, we can

824
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:34,160
understand those.
I'm curious to know if this is

825
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:36,760
probably a difficult question to
answer, but do you think you'll

826
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,480
be able to give us like a top
five logical fallacies to avoid

827
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:41,960
and a top five cognitive biases
to?

828
00:43:42,610 --> 00:43:44,570
To sort of also embrace all and
all.

829
00:43:45,130 --> 00:43:47,530
Yeah, sure.
Well, I mean, you know, the

830
00:43:47,890 --> 00:43:52,650
biggest mother of all cognitive
biases is the motivated

831
00:43:52,650 --> 00:43:53,730
reasoning.
It's called.

832
00:43:53,730 --> 00:43:57,090
That is, we're motivated to
reason our way toward being

833
00:43:57,090 --> 00:44:01,090
right rather than finding out
what's true.

834
00:44:01,690 --> 00:44:07,210
So this is based on a theory by
Hugo Mercier and Dan Sperber.

835
00:44:09,030 --> 00:44:11,550
This by no means universally
accepted, but none.

836
00:44:11,550 --> 00:44:13,790
There's kind of two schools of
thought on this.

837
00:44:14,110 --> 00:44:18,910
Why did we evolve the capacity
to reason and use rationality

838
00:44:18,910 --> 00:44:21,270
and so on?
I mentioned tracking and hunting

839
00:44:21,270 --> 00:44:24,910
and so on.
You know, is it that we want a

840
00:44:25,590 --> 00:44:30,470
veritical perception apparatus
and system where the goal of our

841
00:44:30,470 --> 00:44:34,110
sensory apparatus and reasoning
about the information comes in

842
00:44:34,470 --> 00:44:38,290
is to better understand reality
the way it really is?

843
00:44:39,130 --> 00:44:43,690
Or is it something else, Which
is what Mercy and Sperber argue,

844
00:44:43,690 --> 00:44:47,970
which is that we really evolved
the capacity of reason to win

845
00:44:47,970 --> 00:44:53,250
arguments, to be right for our
group, our tribe, to be correct

846
00:44:53,410 --> 00:44:57,610
and to support that through
reason and arguments and

847
00:44:57,610 --> 00:45:01,290
evidence and so on.
And so the confirmation bias,

848
00:45:01,290 --> 00:45:04,070
you look for confirming evidence
for what you believe and you

849
00:45:04,070 --> 00:45:08,030
disregard the disconfirming
evidence or you rationalize away

850
00:45:08,470 --> 00:45:10,870
spin doctor, the negative
evidence or whatever against

851
00:45:10,870 --> 00:45:13,910
your hypothesis in order to win,
to be right.

852
00:45:14,550 --> 00:45:17,230
And that's their argument.
And I think there's something to

853
00:45:17,230 --> 00:45:20,390
both sides.
Clearly we have the capacity to

854
00:45:20,390 --> 00:45:23,310
understand the nature of reality
reasonably well.

855
00:45:24,150 --> 00:45:28,010
And I know this because, you
know, you and I can both look at

856
00:45:28,010 --> 00:45:31,890
this thing go, yeah, it's round.
I can feel it and you can see

857
00:45:31,890 --> 00:45:34,930
it, and you and I can agree.
And we get some confirmation.

858
00:45:34,930 --> 00:45:37,930
Maybe we ask a third person or a
fourth person, you know, and we

859
00:45:37,930 --> 00:45:40,290
get corroboration on this.
We could all be deluded, you

860
00:45:40,290 --> 00:45:44,590
know, but it's not likely and
it's reasonable for me apply the

861
00:45:44,590 --> 00:45:47,550
Kaprikin principle.
I'm not special that your brain

862
00:45:47,550 --> 00:45:49,430
and sensory apparatus works the
same as mine.

863
00:45:49,830 --> 00:45:51,110
There's nothing special about
me.

864
00:45:51,110 --> 00:45:55,590
So if you say you see something
and I see something and we agree

865
00:45:55,590 --> 00:45:59,390
on it, it's probably the way it
is, you know, then the counter

866
00:45:59,390 --> 00:46:01,270
examples as well.
The bat, you know, the bat has a

867
00:46:01,270 --> 00:46:04,110
completely different sensory
apparatus that uses, you know,

868
00:46:04,110 --> 00:46:09,310
this sonar system and so on and
it's whatever this thing looks

869
00:46:09,310 --> 00:46:12,180
like to the brain of a bat, it's
probably very different from

870
00:46:12,180 --> 00:46:14,740
what you and I see.
That's true.

871
00:46:14,940 --> 00:46:19,180
But if the bat is flying toward
this object and it's bouncing

872
00:46:19,180 --> 00:46:21,660
sound waves off of it and
picking them up, it's still

873
00:46:21,660 --> 00:46:23,380
going to avoid it.
It's going to go around it.

874
00:46:23,740 --> 00:46:25,100
Why?
Because it's really there,

875
00:46:26,180 --> 00:46:28,100
right.
So something like that, even

876
00:46:28,100 --> 00:46:30,620
though the icon in its brain is
going to be different than the

877
00:46:30,620 --> 00:46:33,980
icon in your mic, occipital lobe
or the visual cortex, whatever,

878
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:36,800
it's still really there, you
know, and there.

879
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:42,640
And the reason say camouflage
works in nature is because there

880
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:46,320
really are organisms that are
dangerous and the other

881
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:51,440
organisms that evolve systems to
either look like it or to

882
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:54,520
camouflage against it is because
they really are there.

883
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:58,960
You know, so really are
predators and and those colors

884
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:00,680
really do matter and and so
forth.

885
00:47:01,200 --> 00:47:06,680
So all that, I guess my
conclusion would be that we're

886
00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:12,160
able to reason relatively well
to understand the way the world

887
00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:16,600
really is, but not perfectly.
So we're never going to be sure

888
00:47:17,220 --> 00:47:19,180
because of all the cognitive
biases.

889
00:47:19,340 --> 00:47:21,700
You know the hindsight bias.
You know after the fact you

890
00:47:21,700 --> 00:47:24,220
reconstruct what happened and
concluded it had to happen that

891
00:47:24,220 --> 00:47:26,980
way.
Confirmation bias the my side

892
00:47:26,980 --> 00:47:30,380
bias.
This would support Mercier's

893
00:47:30,380 --> 00:47:36,140
argument that you know that our
our side is right.

894
00:47:36,140 --> 00:47:41,540
Our political party our religion
whatever it is our tribe and and

895
00:47:41,620 --> 00:47:45,090
but but knowing that you can
just go well okay.

896
00:47:45,090 --> 00:47:48,090
I'm probably subject to the so
there's a bias.

897
00:47:48,090 --> 00:47:52,850
Bias we can be say there there's
bias training you train subjects

898
00:47:52,970 --> 00:47:54,930
on to do what you just asked me
to do.

899
00:47:55,410 --> 00:47:57,730
Okay here's the top five things
you should look out for okay.

900
00:47:57,730 --> 00:47:58,530
I got it.
I got it.

901
00:47:58,930 --> 00:48:01,690
And the way it works is they
become very good at seeing other

902
00:48:01,690 --> 00:48:05,370
people's biases, but they have a
hard time seeing it in their own

903
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:07,680
reasoning.
So that it's called the bias

904
00:48:07,680 --> 00:48:10,280
bias.
So we got to get a bias bias

905
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:13,040
bias to overcome the bias bias
right.

906
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:16,000
And that's never going to happen
100%.

907
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:21,120
So you know, so then you have to
develop tools of of meta tools

908
00:48:21,120 --> 00:48:23,440
like, well what's the overall
goal here?

909
00:48:23,960 --> 00:48:27,120
And okay, I'm aware of my my
side bias and the confirmation

910
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:30,800
bias and my motivated reasoning.
So therefore, I'm going to set

911
00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:33,250
as my goal.
I just want to know what's

912
00:48:33,250 --> 00:48:36,170
actually true, not what my tribe
thinks is true.

913
00:48:36,170 --> 00:48:39,210
I'm a Republican, or I'm a
Democrat, or I'm a Catholic, or

914
00:48:39,210 --> 00:48:40,810
I'm a Jew or a Protestant,
whatever.

915
00:48:41,250 --> 00:48:43,130
I'm going to just decide what's
actually true.

916
00:48:43,130 --> 00:48:45,170
That's my goal.
And.

917
00:48:45,410 --> 00:48:49,530
And so with that, you can
overcome some of those biases.

918
00:48:49,530 --> 00:48:52,050
It really does work.
I mean, there's a reason for all

919
00:48:52,050 --> 00:48:55,810
those courses in logic and
logical fallacies and all that

920
00:48:55,810 --> 00:48:57,970
stuff.
People can be trained around it

921
00:48:58,530 --> 00:49:00,930
and the scientific method
itself, you know, the way it's

922
00:49:00,930 --> 00:49:04,700
set up, you know, we got to have
a blind blinded condition.

923
00:49:04,700 --> 00:49:07,740
So the subjects don't know which
condition they're in.

924
00:49:07,740 --> 00:49:09,020
Because I could influence the
outcome.

925
00:49:09,540 --> 00:49:10,780
Yeah.
But the experimenter bi

926
00:49:10,780 --> 00:49:13,340
experimenter bias, okay, it's
going to be double-blind.

927
00:49:13,380 --> 00:49:16,380
The experimenter doesn't even
know what condition the subjects

928
00:49:16,380 --> 00:49:18,420
are in because.
And so these are code.

929
00:49:18,420 --> 00:49:25,300
They use coded, the coded words
or sorry codes to mark the

930
00:49:25,300 --> 00:49:27,820
subjects.
And you don't know which

931
00:49:28,250 --> 00:49:30,450
condition the subject is in when
you're sitting there recording

932
00:49:30,450 --> 00:49:33,490
what they're doing or whatever.
So that you're not biased but

933
00:49:33,490 --> 00:49:35,930
you know, but but somebody else
could decode it and figure out

934
00:49:35,970 --> 00:49:38,970
who was in which group and then
run the statistics on things

935
00:49:38,970 --> 00:49:40,770
like that.
You know, randomized controlled

936
00:49:40,770 --> 00:49:44,290
trials.
You know, the reason for those

937
00:49:44,290 --> 00:49:50,210
is because of all those problems
in in this in the, you know

938
00:49:50,210 --> 00:49:53,410
cognitive biases and and logical
fallacies and so on built into

939
00:49:53,410 --> 00:49:56,250
the system.
So the randomized control,

940
00:49:56,290 --> 00:49:59,330
again, you don't know which
condition the subject is in and

941
00:49:59,330 --> 00:50:01,130
they don't know if they're
getting the placebo or the

942
00:50:01,130 --> 00:50:04,610
actual drug and and so on.
All that's done.

943
00:50:04,610 --> 00:50:07,250
Then you run the experiment
later the statistics and go

944
00:50:07,250 --> 00:50:09,530
okay, it looks like this drug
works or it doesn't work,

945
00:50:09,770 --> 00:50:11,850
whatever.
And you know, all that took a

946
00:50:11,850 --> 00:50:15,250
long time to develop.
I mean really even all the way

947
00:50:15,290 --> 00:50:19,870
up until 2010 when the
replication crisis struck and we

948
00:50:19,870 --> 00:50:23,190
discovered that probably half of
all psych experiments and a good

949
00:50:23,190 --> 00:50:26,470
portion of medical research was
not replicable.

950
00:50:26,470 --> 00:50:28,310
It probably should have never
been published.

951
00:50:28,670 --> 00:50:30,790
How did it get published?
Well, the P hacking, for

952
00:50:30,790 --> 00:50:32,550
example.
The P value, the probability of

953
00:50:32,550 --> 00:50:35,350
being due to chance rather than
the effect you're looking at.

954
00:50:35,350 --> 00:50:39,270
It turns out you can manipulate
the data in a way.

955
00:50:39,270 --> 00:50:43,670
You throw out the extreme values
to, you know, make the the the

956
00:50:43,670 --> 00:50:46,710
numbers come out a certain way,
even unconsciously.

957
00:50:47,150 --> 00:50:51,080
Experimenters maybe do this and
and so there's kind of P

958
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:53,200
hacking.
And you know, again, I mentioned

959
00:50:53,200 --> 00:50:55,960
the file drawer problem.
You know, the experimenter runs

960
00:50:55,960 --> 00:50:58,960
9 experiments and one of them is
statistically significant.

961
00:50:58,960 --> 00:51:00,200
So that's the one that gets
published.

962
00:51:00,640 --> 00:51:03,680
But no one knows about the other
eight that that failed, the that

963
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:07,280
failed to be statistically
significant, that would be good

964
00:51:07,280 --> 00:51:09,520
to know.
So you know, now there's these,

965
00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:11,560
you know, sites where you post
ahead of time.

966
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:13,120
Here are the experiments I'm
going to run.

967
00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:16,280
Here's all nine of them and I'm
going to report the results of

968
00:51:16,280 --> 00:51:19,840
all nine right here.
So everybody knows ahead of time

969
00:51:19,840 --> 00:51:22,160
what's going on, you know,
things like that.

970
00:51:22,160 --> 00:51:23,880
I mean that's that's pretty
recent.

971
00:51:23,880 --> 00:51:25,440
That's just, you know, 13 years
ago.

972
00:51:27,160 --> 00:51:30,520
So, you know, science is
relatively new and stumbling

973
00:51:30,520 --> 00:51:33,680
along trying to figure out, you
know, what are we getting wrong?

974
00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:38,440
And it's, you know, if I knew
what our cultural biases were, I

975
00:51:38,480 --> 00:51:40,480
I wouldn't be subject to them.
But I don't know.

976
00:51:40,480 --> 00:51:42,440
I'm like the fish.
We're all like the fish in the

977
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:43,720
water.
I don't even know that there's

978
00:51:43,720 --> 00:51:46,280
water.
If I knew, I'd, you know, I

979
00:51:46,280 --> 00:51:49,880
wouldn't be subject to it, you
know, So I'm that bigger picture

980
00:51:49,880 --> 00:51:52,080
of extraterrestrials or God or
whatever.

981
00:51:52,520 --> 00:51:56,000
I mean, yes, reality could be
completely different, you know,

982
00:51:56,200 --> 00:52:00,000
as, as as Avi Loeb likes to say,
you know, 95% of the universe is

983
00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:02,520
unknown, you know, dark energy,
dark matter.

984
00:52:02,520 --> 00:52:06,390
We don't even know what it is.
It's like, OK, so maybe we

985
00:52:06,390 --> 00:52:09,870
should be humble
epistemologically humble

986
00:52:10,670 --> 00:52:13,430
humility, epistemological
humility before the fact, just

987
00:52:13,430 --> 00:52:17,270
in case, you know, I don't want
to be that guy in 1896.

988
00:52:17,270 --> 00:52:19,550
That said, physics is pretty
much done.

989
00:52:20,710 --> 00:52:23,350
Yeah, we got it all figured out,
right?

990
00:52:23,350 --> 00:52:25,550
And then the long comes Einstein
and quantum physics and

991
00:52:25,550 --> 00:52:30,470
relativity is like, oh, well,
you know, so I don't know, you

992
00:52:30,470 --> 00:52:33,430
know, 500 years from now, we
could all be thinking very

993
00:52:33,430 --> 00:52:35,830
differently in the same way that
if you time travel back to

994
00:52:35,830 --> 00:52:39,350
Newton's time and you showed him
general relativity and quantum

995
00:52:39,350 --> 00:52:43,390
physics, he'd be like, what?
And so.

996
00:52:43,590 --> 00:52:45,270
Knowing Newton, he probably
would figure it out at some

997
00:52:45,270 --> 00:52:48,110
point.
Yeah, cuz he's smart enough,

998
00:52:48,110 --> 00:52:51,550
yeah.
Tell me, Michael, what's your

999
00:52:51,550 --> 00:52:55,150
perception of the relationship
between philosophy and science?

1000
00:52:55,310 --> 00:52:57,550
Does science need philosophy and
vice versa?

1001
00:52:58,190 --> 00:53:00,590
Yeah, science is really a branch
of philosophy.

1002
00:53:00,590 --> 00:53:04,090
Philosophy.
Is this just a larger world view

1003
00:53:04,330 --> 00:53:09,890
of approaching the world using
every tool that we have, one of

1004
00:53:09,890 --> 00:53:12,010
which is science?
So I don't.

1005
00:53:12,210 --> 00:53:14,650
I don't make this distinction
between science and philosophy,

1006
00:53:14,690 --> 00:53:17,690
and science progresses and
philosophy makes no progress.

1007
00:53:18,650 --> 00:53:20,810
You know, this is just the wrong
way to think about it.

1008
00:53:21,530 --> 00:53:25,410
And mathematical realism.
Well, there, yeah.

1009
00:53:25,410 --> 00:53:28,290
OK, so that's different kinds of
truths we want to talk about

1010
00:53:28,290 --> 00:53:30,570
that.
You know there's certain, you

1011
00:53:30,570 --> 00:53:34,330
know mathematical truths in a,
you know, Euclidean geometry,

1012
00:53:34,730 --> 00:53:37,370
you know the sum of the angles
of a triangle and so on and so

1013
00:53:37,370 --> 00:53:39,250
forth.
These are just true by, you

1014
00:53:39,250 --> 00:53:44,890
know, just by by mathematical
reasoning or you know a bachelor

1015
00:53:44,890 --> 00:53:47,610
is an unmarried man.
In case just that's the what the

1016
00:53:47,610 --> 00:53:50,930
word means.
You know they're those are those

1017
00:53:50,930 --> 00:53:53,330
are different than the kind of
stuff we've been talking about.

1018
00:53:53,330 --> 00:53:56,810
What we don't know for sure I do
think you know is if you know

1019
00:53:56,810 --> 00:53:59,370
does mathematics represent
something that's really out

1020
00:53:59,370 --> 00:54:00,890
there?
I think for the most part, yes,

1021
00:54:01,690 --> 00:54:06,050
I think that's right.
I mean, whatever the aliens, if

1022
00:54:06,050 --> 00:54:08,530
we encounter aliens, that they
will have truly figured out

1023
00:54:08,530 --> 00:54:11,850
math, because how else could
they achieve the physics of

1024
00:54:11,850 --> 00:54:15,410
spaceflight and so on without
figuring those things out now?

1025
00:54:15,450 --> 00:54:17,570
But of course they're going to
call it something different.

1026
00:54:17,570 --> 00:54:20,490
They're going to, they're not
going to call it, you know, F

1027
00:54:20,490 --> 00:54:22,970
equals MA or whatever.
They're going to use some other

1028
00:54:22,970 --> 00:54:26,890
symbols or something.
But you know, the assumption,

1029
00:54:26,890 --> 00:54:30,170
this uniformitarian assumption
is that physics in some other

1030
00:54:30,170 --> 00:54:35,210
Galaxy works the same way as it
does here, or physics a billion

1031
00:54:35,210 --> 00:54:36,930
years ago is the same as it is
now.

1032
00:54:37,450 --> 00:54:39,290
It's possible that's not the
case.

1033
00:54:39,290 --> 00:54:42,890
But but but the assumption is a
reasonable one to make.

1034
00:54:43,410 --> 00:54:47,010
And so again, back to what the
aliens might be like.

1035
00:54:47,490 --> 00:54:51,050
Well, if they're on a planet
like ours with a certain level

1036
00:54:51,050 --> 00:54:54,970
of gravity and certain density
of air, and so they're going to

1037
00:54:54,970 --> 00:54:58,090
have certain structures because
that's just the physics of it.

1038
00:54:58,790 --> 00:55:01,990
And assuming that physics works,
gravity works the same way as it

1039
00:55:01,990 --> 00:55:05,990
does here in some other Galaxy.
It's a reasonable assumption.

1040
00:55:06,310 --> 00:55:09,830
So yeah, I think mathematics
maps on to reality.

1041
00:55:10,510 --> 00:55:11,910
You know, I don't know how far
you want to go.

1042
00:55:11,950 --> 00:55:13,830
You know, when someone like Max
take Mark, I don't.

1043
00:55:13,830 --> 00:55:17,990
He's just beyond my cognitive
capacity to understand what you

1044
00:55:17,990 --> 00:55:19,110
know.
The entire universe is

1045
00:55:19,110 --> 00:55:21,930
mathematical.
I don't even sure I even know

1046
00:55:21,930 --> 00:55:26,450
what that means.
Difficult concept to to grasp.

1047
00:55:26,450 --> 00:55:28,850
In general, when you take
certain fields of mathematics

1048
00:55:28,850 --> 00:55:31,050
and then to say that it does, it
takes it to another level.

1049
00:55:32,370 --> 00:55:35,090
I think so, yeah.
I think metaphysically.

1050
00:55:36,210 --> 00:55:40,490
So kind of locked into our
concepts very much determines

1051
00:55:40,490 --> 00:55:43,370
the way we think about things in
that Wittgenstein way.

1052
00:55:43,890 --> 00:55:46,450
You know, the concept is as it's
defined.

1053
00:55:47,040 --> 00:55:49,560
I think we end up in hitting an
epistemological wall.

1054
00:55:49,720 --> 00:55:54,080
Certain hard problems like the
hard problem, consciousness, the

1055
00:55:54,080 --> 00:55:57,040
fact that we still don't have an
answer and I see Kristoff my

1056
00:55:57,040 --> 00:56:01,080
friend Kristoff Cock had to pay
David Chalmers for their 25 year

1057
00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:07,080
bet.
Very good rack of wines, I read

1058
00:56:07,080 --> 00:56:09,280
that.
Yeah, way to go, Kristoff.

1059
00:56:09,840 --> 00:56:14,150
And OK, but I'm not sure it
could ever be resolved in the

1060
00:56:14,150 --> 00:56:16,150
same way of free.
Well, determinism.

1061
00:56:16,830 --> 00:56:20,110
It's like what it may be a
conceptual problem, the way it's

1062
00:56:20,110 --> 00:56:22,510
just conceived, the way you're
defining these words.

1063
00:56:23,470 --> 00:56:27,030
You know, you end up with just
this word salad of arguments

1064
00:56:27,030 --> 00:56:29,710
that seem to get nowhere.
I get it's.

1065
00:56:29,910 --> 00:56:33,350
My own part, I figure.
So that's exactly what this At

1066
00:56:33,350 --> 00:56:35,110
some point, that's how I frame
this entire conversation.

1067
00:56:35,110 --> 00:56:38,630
So I told you by e-mail that.
A great way to apply your work

1068
00:56:38,630 --> 00:56:41,710
to this would be we approach the
basic concepts of this podcast.

1069
00:56:41,710 --> 00:56:44,790
So Mind Body Solution explores
the nature of reality,

1070
00:56:44,830 --> 00:56:48,150
consciousness, free will,
morality, mental health and

1071
00:56:48,150 --> 00:56:51,030
more.
But I think the best way, the

1072
00:56:51,030 --> 00:56:53,270
overarching theme of this is
obviously paying homage to the

1073
00:56:53,270 --> 00:56:55,750
infamous mind body problem.
I mean, how is it possible that

1074
00:56:55,750 --> 00:56:59,310
this, this psychological system
can manifest?

1075
00:56:59,310 --> 00:57:01,790
I mean, it comes from this
biological being and I've

1076
00:57:01,790 --> 00:57:03,670
noticed on the Michael Shermer
show, I mean, you've

1077
00:57:03,670 --> 00:57:05,370
interviewed.
Many similar gifts.

1078
00:57:05,370 --> 00:57:08,370
I mean, you've got Donald
Hoffman, OGI, Ogas, Bernardo

1079
00:57:08,370 --> 00:57:11,370
Castro, so many people that
we've both spoken to.

1080
00:57:11,690 --> 00:57:13,530
So I'm curious to know at this
point, let's start with

1081
00:57:13,530 --> 00:57:15,930
consciousness, applying that
skepticism to what these

1082
00:57:15,930 --> 00:57:17,850
theories have to say.
I mean, we've got hardcore

1083
00:57:17,850 --> 00:57:20,810
materialists.
I consider myself one of them.

1084
00:57:21,090 --> 00:57:24,250
But at this point, I mean the
hardcore part slowly fading

1085
00:57:24,250 --> 00:57:26,010
away.
And it's the more I'm talking to

1086
00:57:26,010 --> 00:57:28,250
these guys.
I'm seeing what they're trying

1087
00:57:28,250 --> 00:57:31,610
to say from a philosophical.
Mathematical or neuroscientific

1088
00:57:31,610 --> 00:57:32,770
perspective?
Oh well, I wouldn't say

1089
00:57:32,770 --> 00:57:36,370
neuroscientific cuz they go
beyond that, but I'm still

1090
00:57:36,370 --> 00:57:38,050
grounded in that material as
belief.

1091
00:57:38,170 --> 00:57:41,050
How do you, when you chat to
these guys, how do you feel?

1092
00:57:41,050 --> 00:57:42,570
And what?
What comes to mind?

1093
00:57:43,890 --> 00:57:46,250
Well, the mind body problem
itself, just the way it's

1094
00:57:46,250 --> 00:57:50,010
phrased, is a kind of a
dualistic assumption.

1095
00:57:50,010 --> 00:57:52,650
Well, there's body and then
there's this other thing called

1096
00:57:52,650 --> 00:57:55,290
mind.
Well, you're using that word,

1097
00:57:56,650 --> 00:57:58,490
but you know it's just a word.
What does it mean?

1098
00:57:59,010 --> 00:58:02,250
You know, it's to me, it's just
a word that describes what the

1099
00:58:02,250 --> 00:58:06,410
brain is doing when it's doing
something in the same way, like

1100
00:58:07,130 --> 00:58:09,610
that's what you know, when your
brain dies, where does the mind

1101
00:58:09,610 --> 00:58:11,970
go?
It that'd be like asking when

1102
00:58:11,970 --> 00:58:14,930
your heart stops beating, where
does the heartbeat go?

1103
00:58:15,610 --> 00:58:17,730
There is no heartbeat without
the heart beating.

1104
00:58:18,450 --> 00:58:21,290
It's the word heartbeat just
describes what the heart is

1105
00:58:21,290 --> 00:58:25,010
doing or you know, where you
know, the liver is doing

1106
00:58:25,010 --> 00:58:27,980
cleaning your blood and the
pancreas is doing that.

1107
00:58:27,980 --> 00:58:31,380
Whatever that is, always forget,
you know, that's just a process

1108
00:58:31,380 --> 00:58:35,780
of a physical system.
And to me, this word mind has

1109
00:58:35,780 --> 00:58:41,060
been elevated to something other
than all these other processes.

1110
00:58:41,060 --> 00:58:42,500
And I just don't think it should
be.

1111
00:58:42,500 --> 00:58:45,740
I think that's a mistake, a
conceptual mistake.

1112
00:58:45,740 --> 00:58:48,700
It's it's it's still that kind
of intuitive dualism.

1113
00:58:49,500 --> 00:58:51,780
You know, Paul Bloom writes
about this that, you know, we're

1114
00:58:51,780 --> 00:58:54,580
natural born duelists, you know,
children from the youngest age.

1115
00:58:54,580 --> 00:58:57,390
You can test them.
Assume there's there's something

1116
00:58:57,390 --> 00:58:58,430
else.
You have the little puppet of

1117
00:58:58,430 --> 00:59:00,470
the mouse and the puppet of the
alligator, and the alligator

1118
00:59:00,750 --> 00:59:02,670
puppet munches the mouse
alligate.

1119
00:59:02,670 --> 00:59:04,150
You know, where is the mouse
now?

1120
00:59:04,390 --> 00:59:07,150
Oh, it's off in this other realm
and it's with its mommy and it's

1121
00:59:07,150 --> 00:59:09,030
scared away.
You know children from very

1122
00:59:09,190 --> 00:59:11,430
young age think there's
something, there's some essence.

1123
00:59:12,190 --> 00:59:14,710
Essentialism.
There's an essence to the thing

1124
00:59:14,830 --> 00:59:18,430
other than the body, the
physical structure, and that

1125
00:59:18,430 --> 00:59:21,870
seems to be infusing everything.
We talk about all of our

1126
00:59:21,870 --> 00:59:24,360
language.
And so, you know, free will,

1127
00:59:24,360 --> 00:59:28,080
like there's this mini me inside
me, you know, it's so on.

1128
00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:32,360
It's hard to get around that.
And you know, I don't have the

1129
00:59:32,360 --> 00:59:34,120
answer to the mind body, but
nobody does.

1130
00:59:34,120 --> 00:59:35,960
I think it's a conceptual
difficulty.

1131
00:59:35,960 --> 00:59:39,760
But for me there's no problem
because physical systems act on

1132
00:59:39,760 --> 00:59:42,360
physical systems.
That's what they do.

1133
00:59:42,760 --> 00:59:45,680
And just that's what we do when
we're studying physical systems

1134
00:59:45,680 --> 00:59:48,280
and how, you know, one thing
causes another thing.

1135
00:59:48,800 --> 00:59:52,000
So neurons firing cause other
neurons to fire.

1136
00:59:52,610 --> 00:59:56,210
And neural networks are at work,
and they interact with other

1137
00:59:56,210 --> 00:59:58,090
neural networks.
Sometimes they're conflicting,

1138
00:59:58,090 --> 01:00:01,090
sometimes they're reinforcing.
You know, whatever.

1139
01:00:01,090 --> 01:00:04,530
They build these models of the
world and, you know, models on

1140
01:00:04,530 --> 01:00:07,090
top of models on top of models,
they get more complex.

1141
01:00:07,770 --> 01:00:11,850
And at some point it feels like
there's something else

1142
01:00:12,410 --> 01:00:15,170
metaphysical going on.
I mean, when we're just sitting

1143
01:00:15,170 --> 01:00:18,490
here talking, I hear the words
coming out of my mouth.

1144
01:00:19,410 --> 01:00:21,930
But I don't know.
I can't sense any of the process

1145
01:00:21,930 --> 01:00:24,490
going on in my brain.
You don't detect your brain.

1146
01:00:24,770 --> 01:00:27,810
It feels like there's thoughts
floating around up there and

1147
01:00:27,810 --> 01:00:30,890
some kind of quantum feel.
There's some very, very, you

1148
01:00:30,890 --> 01:00:33,810
know, metaphysical feel.
But that that's not, we know

1149
01:00:33,810 --> 01:00:35,930
that's not true.
They're just neurons firing.

1150
01:00:36,010 --> 01:00:38,970
You know, my Broca's area, you
know, that generates speech and

1151
01:00:38,970 --> 01:00:41,970
this other area that, you know,
generates the thoughts and that,

1152
01:00:42,050 --> 01:00:45,690
you know, my fears and emotions
bubble up from my amygdala and

1153
01:00:45,690 --> 01:00:49,610
my prefrontal cortex puts the
brakes on by getting upset at

1154
01:00:49,610 --> 01:00:51,610
you for asking me this question.
So I won't yell at you,

1155
01:00:51,930 --> 01:00:53,490
whatever.
There's all this stuff going on.

1156
01:00:53,490 --> 01:00:56,090
But I don't perceive any of it.
It just feels like there's this

1157
01:00:56,090 --> 01:00:59,650
stuff floating around up there.
So to me, the mind body, how

1158
01:00:59,650 --> 01:01:02,050
does the how does the mind act
on the body?

1159
01:01:03,130 --> 01:01:05,450
There is no mind.
It's just how does the body act

1160
01:01:05,450 --> 01:01:07,090
on the body?
Well, it just does.

1161
01:01:07,090 --> 01:01:10,970
That's what it does.
You know my brainstem sends

1162
01:01:10,970 --> 01:01:14,530
these signals to my heart and
lungs to beat and breathe.

1163
01:01:15,050 --> 01:01:16,450
I don't have to think about it,
thank God.

1164
01:01:17,370 --> 01:01:19,770
You know and you get that
happens when you're sleeping and

1165
01:01:19,770 --> 01:01:22,050
so on.
And when general anesthesia you

1166
01:01:22,050 --> 01:01:25,450
know, kicks in they it alters
these things and they have to

1167
01:01:25,450 --> 01:01:29,810
have system set up to make so
you keep breathing and your

1168
01:01:29,810 --> 01:01:32,610
heart keeps pumping while you're
getting surgery And all this

1169
01:01:32,610 --> 01:01:35,730
stuff, it's it's all body.
It's just the brain.

1170
01:01:35,770 --> 01:01:38,490
The mind is just a word to
describe what the brain does.

1171
01:01:38,490 --> 01:01:40,210
That's my answer to the the
problem.

1172
01:01:40,600 --> 01:01:43,640
They.
I mean, when when I try to chat

1173
01:01:43,920 --> 01:01:46,720
about this to someone who has a
fundamentally different view, I

1174
01:01:46,720 --> 01:01:49,000
try to maintain that as we were
discussing earlier, that

1175
01:01:49,320 --> 01:01:51,640
relatively skeptical approach
mentally.

1176
01:01:51,960 --> 01:01:55,040
But I think it's important to
try and explore the idea so that

1177
01:01:55,040 --> 01:01:57,160
we can also understand the
philosophy behind it.

1178
01:01:57,320 --> 01:01:59,200
When you approached
conversations with people like

1179
01:01:59,200 --> 01:02:01,600
Donald Hoffman, Bernardo Kastra,
who have an idealist

1180
01:02:01,600 --> 01:02:03,760
perspective, I mean,
consciousness is fundamental.

1181
01:02:04,330 --> 01:02:05,890
The other day I spoke to Thomas
Campbell.

1182
01:02:05,930 --> 01:02:07,370
I'm not sure if you're familiar
with his work.

1183
01:02:07,370 --> 01:02:10,010
He also says, I mean,
consciousness is fundamental.

1184
01:02:10,010 --> 01:02:12,850
So this idealist perspective,
when you approach these

1185
01:02:12,850 --> 01:02:15,370
conversations grounded in a
materialist perspective, how do

1186
01:02:15,370 --> 01:02:17,170
you go about it?
Yeah.

1187
01:02:17,170 --> 01:02:20,570
Well yeah.
Like with Deepak Chopra who's,

1188
01:02:21,010 --> 01:02:25,090
you know, I've known a long time
now and he's of that bent that

1189
01:02:25,250 --> 01:02:28,560
everything is consciousness.
Consciousness is the ground of

1190
01:02:28,560 --> 01:02:32,640
all being, as he says, in the
same way that you know, Tillig

1191
01:02:32,640 --> 01:02:34,480
said God is the ground of all
being.

1192
01:02:35,240 --> 01:02:38,720
In a way it's it's kind of a
theological position to take

1193
01:02:38,760 --> 01:02:40,760
that.
You know, metaphysically there's

1194
01:02:40,760 --> 01:02:44,720
something that underlies
everything that we see and and

1195
01:02:44,720 --> 01:02:47,040
measure and so on.
And that underlying thing is

1196
01:02:47,200 --> 01:02:50,960
what consciousness, God,
whatever, metaphysical other

1197
01:02:50,960 --> 01:02:54,320
thing.
And OK, maybe, you know, I don't

1198
01:02:54,320 --> 01:02:57,920
know if it seems like you get
hit one of these epistemological

1199
01:02:57,920 --> 01:03:00,840
walls where, well, how can we
settle this issue?

1200
01:03:01,400 --> 01:03:04,160
Is there some experiment we're
going to run, You know, and it's

1201
01:03:04,160 --> 01:03:08,200
it often to me seems like it
comes down to some like a leap

1202
01:03:08,200 --> 01:03:11,360
of faith like this is my
metaphysical presumption.

1203
01:03:11,360 --> 01:03:12,720
This is where I'm going to
start.

1204
01:03:13,440 --> 01:03:14,960
Okay.
Just put that up front so we

1205
01:03:14,960 --> 01:03:17,520
know that.
And from that you can derive all

1206
01:03:17,520 --> 01:03:19,480
sorts of things.
But if you start with some other

1207
01:03:20,960 --> 01:03:23,600
grounding point, then you're not
going to end up with those

1208
01:03:23,600 --> 01:03:26,640
assumptions.
This is why I like that survey

1209
01:03:26,640 --> 01:03:29,720
traumers did back in 2009.
It's been replicated since then

1210
01:03:29,720 --> 01:03:32,520
by somebody else.
You know, they just surveyed.

1211
01:03:32,560 --> 01:03:36,520
It was something like 3600
professors and graduate students

1212
01:03:36,520 --> 01:03:40,600
in philosophy on, you know, like
like the top 20 problems in

1213
01:03:40,600 --> 01:03:42,880
philosophy.
You know, what is your position

1214
01:03:42,880 --> 01:03:45,050
like?
Free will and determinism and so

1215
01:03:45,050 --> 01:03:47,890
on.
And the fact that there there's

1216
01:03:47,930 --> 01:03:51,610
very little consensus on most of
these hard problems, You know,

1217
01:03:51,610 --> 01:03:53,090
they, they don't agree with each
other.

1218
01:03:53,690 --> 01:03:56,850
And to me this would be like you
surveying astronomers and

1219
01:03:56,850 --> 01:04:00,170
cosmologists, you know, is it
The Big Bang theory or the

1220
01:04:00,170 --> 01:04:02,930
steady state theory that
explains the cosmos?

1221
01:04:02,930 --> 01:04:07,850
Well, 99% of them say, well Big
Bang has won out over the steady

1222
01:04:07,850 --> 01:04:10,210
state because of all this
evidence that's accumulated

1223
01:04:10,210 --> 01:04:14,150
since the 1950s.
But but if it was still 5050 or

1224
01:04:14,150 --> 01:04:16,550
you know some something like
that, we we don't know.

1225
01:04:17,230 --> 01:04:20,870
And I'd say okay, maybe there's
and and it was instead of a 50

1226
01:04:20,870 --> 01:04:23,350
year old problem it was 1000
year old problem.

1227
01:04:23,350 --> 01:04:26,870
I think okay you guys are you're
going about this the wrong way.

1228
01:04:26,870 --> 01:04:29,310
There's something else wrong
with the way you're asking the

1229
01:04:29,310 --> 01:04:32,510
question because at some point
if there's a way to get an

1230
01:04:32,510 --> 01:04:34,910
answer, well then you should be
able to run some experiments and

1231
01:04:34,910 --> 01:04:37,230
figure out which is the
likeliest 1 to be true.

1232
01:04:37,230 --> 01:04:39,670
Now there's still big bank
skeptics, I know, but not many.

1233
01:04:40,790 --> 01:04:43,830
And so you get this consensus,
and the fact that there doesn't

1234
01:04:43,830 --> 01:04:47,230
seem to be as much consensus in
philosophy as there is in

1235
01:04:47,230 --> 01:04:50,390
science, that tells me there
there's some other thing going

1236
01:04:50,390 --> 01:04:52,750
on there.
And again, I think, I think it's

1237
01:04:52,750 --> 01:04:56,950
that metaphysical starting point
I'm going to start where at the

1238
01:04:57,030 --> 01:04:59,670
assumption everything is
conscious, you know, like like

1239
01:04:59,670 --> 01:05:02,670
something like pan psychism or
something like OK then you're

1240
01:05:02,670 --> 01:05:03,910
going to end up somewhere
different.

1241
01:05:04,110 --> 01:05:06,590
That's true, I think.
I think that that also indicates

1242
01:05:06,590 --> 01:05:09,430
the limits within science,
because philosophy does allow

1243
01:05:09,430 --> 01:05:11,620
you to.
At least semantically or

1244
01:05:11,940 --> 01:05:15,060
linguistically explore concepts
that go beyond science.

1245
01:05:15,780 --> 01:05:16,780
And I think that's the reason
why.

1246
01:05:16,780 --> 01:05:19,420
Because some philosophers of
mine who have these different

1247
01:05:19,540 --> 01:05:22,820
perspective from our own, I mean
they formulate some well

1248
01:05:23,140 --> 01:05:26,940
grounded philosophical arguments
to a point where it becomes very

1249
01:05:26,940 --> 01:05:28,940
difficult to really find flaws
within it.

1250
01:05:29,140 --> 01:05:32,220
And in essence it's explanatory
power slightly increases from a

1251
01:05:32,220 --> 01:05:35,460
philosophical perspective and
not from a scientific

1252
01:05:35,460 --> 01:05:37,100
perspective.
And I find that quite

1253
01:05:37,100 --> 01:05:38,820
interesting and fascinating, and
that's why.

1254
01:05:39,560 --> 01:05:42,200
This my problem is, it really
is, well, a hard problem.

1255
01:05:42,200 --> 01:05:44,320
At least it's quite a difficult
one to answer.

1256
01:05:45,880 --> 01:05:51,200
Yeah and OK, so what's wrong
with that line of reasoning

1257
01:05:51,200 --> 01:05:53,800
where I'm going to just do a
pure thought experiment.

1258
01:05:53,800 --> 01:05:57,040
If I'm going to start here and
if this is true, then this, then

1259
01:05:57,040 --> 01:06:00,480
this, and if, then if, then in
20 steps later you end up at

1260
01:06:01,010 --> 01:06:03,810
where you're at okay.
Did you look out the window to

1261
01:06:03,810 --> 01:06:07,650
see if any of that is true?
I mean if you're just in your

1262
01:06:07,650 --> 01:06:09,890
head the entire time, there's
nothing wrong with that.

1263
01:06:09,890 --> 01:06:12,730
It's a philosophy is a perfectly
reasonable way of reasoning.

1264
01:06:13,490 --> 01:06:17,250
But it would be nice if you
could somehow test it like what

1265
01:06:17,250 --> 01:06:20,970
is nature actually like?
You know, so that like deep

1266
01:06:20,970 --> 01:06:24,250
boxing, you know everything is
consciousness is pervasive in

1267
01:06:24,250 --> 01:06:26,170
the universe.
It will.

1268
01:06:26,410 --> 01:06:28,050
So that's it.
Well, what about, you know, when

1269
01:06:28,050 --> 01:06:31,070
somebody gets a stroke, that
area, that form of

1270
01:06:31,070 --> 01:06:34,510
consciousness, that area of the
mind, the mind itself just is

1271
01:06:34,510 --> 01:06:36,790
gone.
They can't speak anymore.

1272
01:06:36,790 --> 01:06:40,790
The memories are gone.
My thought experiment for Deepak

1273
01:06:40,790 --> 01:06:44,230
was, where does Aunt Millie's
mind go when her brain dies

1274
01:06:44,230 --> 01:06:47,310
about Alzheimer's?
And Deepak's answer, I guess

1275
01:06:47,310 --> 01:06:49,750
this is the idealist position.
Well, it just goes to where it

1276
01:06:49,750 --> 01:06:53,190
returns to where it started.
It goes back into the ether or

1277
01:06:53,190 --> 01:06:56,030
whatever.
And that that millie's brain was

1278
01:06:56,030 --> 01:06:59,310
just a temporary instantiation
of her consciousness that that

1279
01:06:59,310 --> 01:07:01,630
exists somewhere else.
Well, where is that?

1280
01:07:02,550 --> 01:07:05,790
And then the analogy, well, the
brain is like a radio receiver

1281
01:07:06,480 --> 01:07:08,840
and consciousness is like the
radio waves, you know.

1282
01:07:08,840 --> 01:07:11,440
So here we are in my office here
in Santa Barbara.

1283
01:07:12,000 --> 01:07:14,960
We have radio stations.
If I had a radio here, I could

1284
01:07:14,960 --> 01:07:16,520
tune it in.
And I don't have a radio in my

1285
01:07:16,520 --> 01:07:17,640
office.
There's one in my car.

1286
01:07:18,880 --> 01:07:20,680
But if I could tune it in here,
I could hear it.

1287
01:07:20,680 --> 01:07:23,360
But I don't have one here.
So we don't detect the radio

1288
01:07:23,360 --> 01:07:26,960
signals, but they're here.
Hey, so my answer to that is

1289
01:07:27,120 --> 01:07:29,720
okay, But we know where the
radio stations are.

1290
01:07:29,720 --> 01:07:31,880
You can go there.
You can see the guy in the booth

1291
01:07:31,880 --> 01:07:34,520
talking to the microphone and
then the transmitters are

1292
01:07:34,520 --> 01:07:37,640
sending it out and they go to
the sink, the towers at the top

1293
01:07:37,640 --> 01:07:39,880
of the hill here, and they
broadcast out to the world and

1294
01:07:39,880 --> 01:07:42,000
so on.
I can see the apparatus.

1295
01:07:42,000 --> 01:07:45,800
Where's the equivalent of that
for universal consciousness?

1296
01:07:46,360 --> 01:07:48,720
You know what?
Is there some consciousness

1297
01:07:48,720 --> 01:07:52,560
creating mechanism somewhere in
the universe where all this

1298
01:07:52,560 --> 01:07:54,520
stuff comes from?
The answer appears to be no.

1299
01:07:54,520 --> 01:07:56,680
It's just pervasive everywhere.
Okay.

1300
01:07:56,680 --> 01:07:59,120
Then how do you know it's true?
I mean, if there's no way to

1301
01:07:59,120 --> 01:08:03,550
falsify it, to test it, to go,
let's go look then.

1302
01:08:03,590 --> 01:08:06,870
Then again, you're just saying
this is my metaphysical starting

1303
01:08:07,110 --> 01:08:09,190
point in it.
Then to me it sounds like a leap

1304
01:08:09,190 --> 01:08:11,950
of faith.
I'm just gonna start here, OK?

1305
01:08:13,670 --> 01:08:16,630
Yeah, because it does become
quite difficult, especially if

1306
01:08:16,630 --> 01:08:20,630
you are relying on this
empirical evidence, for us to to

1307
01:08:20,630 --> 01:08:22,830
fully grasp those concepts
because we need some sort of a

1308
01:08:22,830 --> 01:08:26,109
empirical reality to test this,
and also I think they need at

1309
01:08:26,109 --> 01:08:27,990
that point it would also lack
some sort of practical

1310
01:08:27,990 --> 01:08:32,290
significance, which I think.
Then makes it less useful from a

1311
01:08:33,050 --> 01:08:36,330
scientific perspective.
But then I've also been with

1312
01:08:36,330 --> 01:08:37,770
this.
I've noticed philosophical

1313
01:08:37,770 --> 01:08:39,810
arguments where they're able to
give you the practical

1314
01:08:39,810 --> 01:08:43,970
significance and makes it a
yeah, that's always it to me.

1315
01:08:43,970 --> 01:08:46,649
It's always a good question.
Why does this matter?

1316
01:08:46,649 --> 01:08:49,729
What difference does it make?
Like I listened to your

1317
01:08:49,729 --> 01:08:52,290
conversation with Noam Chomsky.
I thought it was great.

1318
01:08:52,569 --> 01:08:55,529
He's such an interesting guy.
You know I'm not crazy about his

1319
01:08:55,529 --> 01:09:00,490
politics but but he's pretty
deep thinker philosophically

1320
01:09:00,490 --> 01:09:01,810
and.
That's 93.

1321
01:09:01,810 --> 01:09:04,330
That's at 93.
That's crazy.

1322
01:09:04,970 --> 01:09:07,330
What's that?
Yeah, well, I know he's 93.

1323
01:09:07,450 --> 01:09:09,170
Unbelievable.
Unbelievable.

1324
01:09:09,760 --> 01:09:12,840
Yeah, so but you know in the
free will, determinism, you you

1325
01:09:12,840 --> 01:09:15,240
were pushing him on that.
But I love this.

1326
01:09:15,240 --> 01:09:17,479
It's just single line.
What difference does it make?

1327
01:09:17,479 --> 01:09:19,600
No one actually believes in
determinism.

1328
01:09:19,720 --> 01:09:22,479
Even the determinists, the
moment they walk out of their

1329
01:09:22,479 --> 01:09:24,960
office and go out in the world,
they don't act determined.

1330
01:09:24,960 --> 01:09:27,279
They act like they're free.
He's like, what about the main

1331
01:09:27,279 --> 01:09:28,640
one?
Common sense.

1332
01:09:29,680 --> 01:09:31,080
Common sense, right?
Yeah.

1333
01:09:32,080 --> 01:09:33,520
What does it seem like?
Yes.

1334
01:09:33,720 --> 01:09:37,359
OK, I could be determined, but
I, you know, I'm the determining

1335
01:09:37,359 --> 01:09:39,800
factor of my own physical
system.

1336
01:09:39,800 --> 01:09:41,880
Again, back to that mind body
problem.

1337
01:09:43,120 --> 01:09:47,240
You know, in a way, I am part of
the causal net of the universe.

1338
01:09:47,240 --> 01:09:50,680
I'm a physical being in a
physical universe, yes, but I'm

1339
01:09:50,680 --> 01:09:53,800
I can also affect the physical
universe around me by the

1340
01:09:53,800 --> 01:09:56,680
choices I make, including
myself.

1341
01:09:56,680 --> 01:09:59,800
I can affect my future self by
choices I make now.

1342
01:10:00,280 --> 01:10:02,160
Oh well.
But that was determined by your

1343
01:10:02,160 --> 01:10:05,400
genes and your upbringing in the
contingent events that happened

1344
01:10:05,480 --> 01:10:08,880
the day before and last month
and one hour ago.

1345
01:10:08,880 --> 01:10:10,080
Whatever.
OK, yeah.

1346
01:10:10,080 --> 01:10:13,040
But I'm part of that.
I'm interacting with all of

1347
01:10:13,040 --> 01:10:15,200
that.
That's part of me, you know?

1348
01:10:15,200 --> 01:10:17,920
And anyway, so I'll be having
this conversation with Robert

1349
01:10:17,920 --> 01:10:20,200
Sapolsky next month.
He's got a big book coming out.

1350
01:10:20,200 --> 01:10:22,880
I know.
It's, it's called determined, I

1351
01:10:22,920 --> 01:10:24,680
think.
Determined, yeah.

1352
01:10:24,960 --> 01:10:25,360
Very.
Yeah.

1353
01:10:25,360 --> 01:10:30,450
I just want to ask him, OK, When
you go outside, do you look left

1354
01:10:30,450 --> 01:10:33,010
before you cross the street?
I mean, come on.

1355
01:10:33,890 --> 01:10:36,330
There's a book that came out
that's coming out sorry on the

1356
01:10:36,330 --> 01:10:41,530
3rd of October is called is by
Kevin Mitchell, free Agents.

1357
01:10:42,570 --> 01:10:44,490
It's based on the evolution of
consciousness.

1358
01:10:44,490 --> 01:10:45,570
So that's something I think you
should check out.

1359
01:10:45,570 --> 01:10:47,730
It's very good, right?
Very right.

1360
01:10:48,610 --> 01:10:51,770
Again, you know, I get these
books every week in my office

1361
01:10:51,770 --> 01:10:53,410
here.
I have just hundreds of books

1362
01:10:53,410 --> 01:10:56,690
stacked up behind me.
And there's a lot of books on

1363
01:10:56,690 --> 01:11:00,770
determinism and free will.
I mean making the argument a

1364
01:11:00,770 --> 01:11:02,850
book length.
I mean big thick books.

1365
01:11:03,090 --> 01:11:05,770
You know, making the argument
that determinism is true or or

1366
01:11:05,770 --> 01:11:08,210
compatible is mostly not
libertarian free will.

1367
01:11:08,210 --> 01:11:11,810
But compatibilism is the
preferred position, making super

1368
01:11:11,810 --> 01:11:13,050
strong arguments.
And I read them.

1369
01:11:13,130 --> 01:11:15,010
I read them both ago.
That's a good argument.

1370
01:11:15,010 --> 01:11:16,810
And then I read the other one.
It's like that's a good

1371
01:11:16,810 --> 01:11:20,570
argument.
So back to, you know, kind of

1372
01:11:20,570 --> 01:11:23,530
back to the bigger picture then
how can we figure out who's

1373
01:11:23,530 --> 01:11:29,610
right?
And the answer maybe it's, it

1374
01:11:29,610 --> 01:11:31,450
may come down to what Chomsky
said.

1375
01:11:31,450 --> 01:11:34,970
It's just, you know, just go
outside and just walk around and

1376
01:11:34,970 --> 01:11:37,570
and think what what's actually
going on here?

1377
01:11:37,570 --> 01:11:39,610
I am making decisions.
I am free.

1378
01:11:40,570 --> 01:11:41,890
Okay.
Technically you're not free to

1379
01:11:41,890 --> 01:11:44,330
do anything.
I mean, you know, I can't play

1380
01:11:44,330 --> 01:11:47,370
NBA basketball.
I don't, we're not talking about

1381
01:11:47,370 --> 01:11:49,890
that.
But just, you know, you know,

1382
01:11:50,210 --> 01:11:52,130
should I, should I have the
chocolate chip cookies this

1383
01:11:52,130 --> 01:11:54,890
afternoon or not?
I have some say in that matter,

1384
01:11:54,890 --> 01:11:58,850
even though I'm tempted, you
know, and like another one of my

1385
01:11:58,850 --> 01:12:02,650
questions I have for people,
determinists is, you know, the,

1386
01:12:02,650 --> 01:12:05,690
the person that you know is
subject to the opioid crisis.

1387
01:12:05,690 --> 01:12:08,450
Somebody who has true
addictions, they really can't.

1388
01:12:08,490 --> 01:12:12,190
They have a difficult time
controlling their urges and this

1389
01:12:12,190 --> 01:12:15,230
has been a huge problem.
So but we know that actually

1390
01:12:15,230 --> 01:12:17,710
that affects a small percentage
of people who have taken

1391
01:12:17,710 --> 01:12:20,790
opioids.
It it's it's like 1% you know

1392
01:12:21,030 --> 01:12:24,470
are are having such strong
addictions, they cannot control

1393
01:12:24,470 --> 01:12:27,350
themselves and then they have
serious medical problems or

1394
01:12:27,350 --> 01:12:28,590
death.
OK.

1395
01:12:28,590 --> 01:12:31,150
But I don't have that problem.
Like my my father was an

1396
01:12:31,150 --> 01:12:34,910
alcoholic, one of my two sisters
alcoholic, my father's father,

1397
01:12:34,910 --> 01:12:37,270
my grandfather was an alcoholic.
One of his two brothers was an

1398
01:12:37,270 --> 01:12:38,470
alcoholic.
But I'm not.

1399
01:12:38,800 --> 01:12:40,800
I can drink.
I can drink 123.

1400
01:12:41,240 --> 01:12:43,520
I can stop at any time.
I don't care.

1401
01:12:43,520 --> 01:12:46,760
It doesn't really matter.
And lucky me, okay.

1402
01:12:46,760 --> 01:12:48,960
So I don't feel like I have
super willpower or whatever.

1403
01:12:49,320 --> 01:12:51,120
But to the determinists, what
does that mean?

1404
01:12:51,840 --> 01:12:54,800
That the addict is more
determined and I'm less

1405
01:12:54,800 --> 01:12:57,280
determined.
You know, can you say I just

1406
01:12:57,280 --> 01:13:00,600
have more degrees of freedom and
they have fewer degrees of

1407
01:13:00,600 --> 01:13:02,800
freedom?
You can just reframe it that way

1408
01:13:03,200 --> 01:13:07,200
in terms of volition which is
what Dan Danna does and freedom

1409
01:13:07,200 --> 01:13:10,690
evolves, which I really like
that book, you know just more

1410
01:13:10,730 --> 01:13:13,650
more just think of degrees of
freedom of a machine.

1411
01:13:14,010 --> 01:13:16,570
You know most machines are
restricted in their degrees of

1412
01:13:16,570 --> 01:13:19,570
freedom, how much they can move
or what choices they can make or

1413
01:13:19,570 --> 01:13:23,210
whatever.
And you know, in sports, for

1414
01:13:23,210 --> 01:13:25,730
example, just thinking about
this with TAB and playing tennis

1415
01:13:25,730 --> 01:13:30,570
a lot in the last year and you
know, the degrees of freedom is

1416
01:13:30,570 --> 01:13:35,080
too wide for for my control and
therefore I'm not a very good

1417
01:13:35,080 --> 01:13:37,200
player.
But the more practice I have and

1418
01:13:37,200 --> 01:13:40,960
the more lessons I take, I'm
able to restrict the degrees of

1419
01:13:40,960 --> 01:13:43,640
freedom so that the serve is
more consistent every single

1420
01:13:43,640 --> 01:13:45,440
time.
And and I've noticed the

1421
01:13:45,440 --> 01:13:47,920
professionals, they all have
these kind of obsessive little

1422
01:13:47,920 --> 01:13:50,480
ticks that they do, you know,
they bounce the ball just the

1423
01:13:50,480 --> 01:13:52,720
right number of times and they
do this with the hair and then

1424
01:13:52,720 --> 01:13:55,760
just that and the arm and the
jersey and the and they're

1425
01:13:55,760 --> 01:13:57,280
trying to restrict the degrees
of freedom.

1426
01:13:57,280 --> 01:14:00,600
So they they they have fewer
errors or it's just the same

1427
01:14:00,600 --> 01:14:03,680
every shot, right.
And in a way, you know, that

1428
01:14:03,920 --> 01:14:06,480
that's a good way to think about
human behaviors is degrees of

1429
01:14:06,480 --> 01:14:09,520
freedom.
And I would say that the addict

1430
01:14:10,000 --> 01:14:11,800
just has fewer degrees of
freedom.

1431
01:14:11,800 --> 01:14:15,240
They they just can't control the
behavior as much as rather than

1432
01:14:15,240 --> 01:14:17,440
saying they're more determined
or less determined, which I

1433
01:14:17,440 --> 01:14:19,840
think is a weird way to say it
anyway.

1434
01:14:21,360 --> 01:14:24,000
You know there's this is the
thing with this topic of this as

1435
01:14:24,000 --> 01:14:27,440
you said there's so many
arguments back and forth it it's

1436
01:14:27,440 --> 01:14:30,360
very convincing sometimes.
Do when you read an opposing

1437
01:14:30,360 --> 01:14:31,960
argument, I mean, have you read
just dessert?

1438
01:14:32,080 --> 01:14:35,600
By Dennis and Rick Russo.
I had the two of them on the

1439
01:14:35,600 --> 01:14:36,440
show.
Yes, yes.

1440
01:14:36,480 --> 01:14:38,200
I think as well, yes.
Yeah.

1441
01:14:38,200 --> 01:14:41,720
And it's like at the end, it's
like, yeah, OK, those are both

1442
01:14:41,720 --> 01:14:42,920
great arguments.
Yeah.

1443
01:14:43,320 --> 01:14:44,680
But you do.
But where are we?

1444
01:14:44,680 --> 01:14:47,320
We're right to where?
Back to where we started 2 hours

1445
01:14:47,320 --> 01:14:49,240
ago.
Yeah, I mean, it's incredible.

1446
01:14:49,240 --> 01:14:51,680
I mean, he comes with a hard
compatible list take and then I

1447
01:14:51,680 --> 01:14:53,440
mean, you've got Dennis who's
got the compatible lists.

1448
01:14:53,890 --> 01:14:55,850
Take within it.
But then they both still making

1449
01:14:55,850 --> 01:14:58,330
one assumption there is that
it's determined, everything is

1450
01:14:58,330 --> 01:14:59,930
determined.
And then you've got people

1451
01:14:59,930 --> 01:15:01,690
making a completely different
argument.

1452
01:15:01,690 --> 01:15:04,810
And these are very intelligent
people making different claims.

1453
01:15:04,850 --> 01:15:08,330
Where do you send it this?
Do you have a well I I I think I

1454
01:15:08,330 --> 01:15:09,930
like the idea of self
determined.

1455
01:15:09,930 --> 01:15:13,450
I think that's the title of the
book in fact in which you can

1456
01:15:13,450 --> 01:15:16,770
actually this this was by a
psychologist clinician I think

1457
01:15:16,770 --> 01:15:20,450
who trains people on how to
control their urges, you know,

1458
01:15:20,450 --> 01:15:24,020
addicts and cigarette smoking
and whatever, and that you can

1459
01:15:24,020 --> 01:15:27,260
actually do this.
People learn to control their

1460
01:15:27,260 --> 01:15:32,620
emotions and their addictions
and their predilections in the

1461
01:15:32,620 --> 01:15:36,900
same way of, you know, what do
they call it, a violence

1462
01:15:36,900 --> 01:15:41,940
training or what is it
aggressive people that that have

1463
01:15:41,940 --> 01:15:46,000
selfcontrol issues with with
violence, anger, anger, anger

1464
01:15:46,000 --> 01:15:48,560
management, anger management.
Okay, You know, so you just

1465
01:15:48,560 --> 01:15:49,320
train.
People okay.

1466
01:15:49,320 --> 01:15:51,720
When you feel this urge coming
up, here's what you got, you

1467
01:15:51,720 --> 01:15:55,280
know, count to 10, walk outside,
you know, stop the conversation.

1468
01:15:55,280 --> 01:15:57,480
You know, there's just certain
tools.

1469
01:15:57,480 --> 01:15:58,520
You can have it.
They're ready.

1470
01:15:58,600 --> 01:16:00,840
And people do learn to do this.
They really do.

1471
01:16:01,720 --> 01:16:03,800
Addicts really do control their
urges.

1472
01:16:03,800 --> 01:16:06,720
And cigarette smokers stop
smoking, Alcoholics stop

1473
01:16:06,720 --> 01:16:09,440
drinking.
It's harder for them, but it's

1474
01:16:09,920 --> 01:16:12,840
so when you train them and they
learn it and they actually do

1475
01:16:12,840 --> 01:16:16,760
it, what is going on there?
You know, they're gaining more

1476
01:16:16,760 --> 01:16:19,160
self-control.
They're they're determining

1477
01:16:19,160 --> 01:16:22,360
their self, their future self.
I think a useful way to think

1478
01:16:22,360 --> 01:16:26,000
about it is, is our our our
current self and our future

1479
01:16:26,000 --> 01:16:28,800
self.
It's sort of a weird thing, but

1480
01:16:28,800 --> 01:16:32,560
we all do it like, where do I
want to be tomorrow, next week,

1481
01:16:32,560 --> 01:16:34,240
next month, next year, 10 years
from now?

1482
01:16:34,760 --> 01:16:37,080
And I can project that, you
know, thanks to the fact we have

1483
01:16:37,080 --> 01:16:40,840
a big cortex, we can.
It's really the the fact that we

1484
01:16:40,840 --> 01:16:44,380
can project into the future is
probably what makes us different

1485
01:16:44,380 --> 01:16:47,180
from other species.
We can project a little bit into

1486
01:16:47,180 --> 01:16:50,140
the future, an hour maybe, but
you know, we can project

1487
01:16:50,140 --> 01:16:53,580
infinitely.
And it's like that that episode

1488
01:16:53,580 --> 01:16:57,620
of Simpsons where Homer's about
to drink his 23rd beer or

1489
01:16:57,620 --> 01:17:00,100
whatever and his Marge says, you
know, you're going to regret

1490
01:17:00,100 --> 01:17:02,860
that tomorrow And he goes,
that's future Homer's problem,

1491
01:17:03,100 --> 01:17:08,940
man, I don't that poor sucker
like it's somebody else, you

1492
01:17:08,940 --> 01:17:11,020
know.
And so there's lots of examples

1493
01:17:11,020 --> 01:17:12,580
of this.
You know, there's apps you can

1494
01:17:12,580 --> 01:17:17,040
get, you know, where you, you
know, kind of write down or

1495
01:17:17,040 --> 01:17:21,280
project publicly what your goals
are so that you now you feel

1496
01:17:21,280 --> 01:17:24,880
more motivated to go, you know,
I want to lose this many pounds

1497
01:17:24,880 --> 01:17:27,360
this month.
And you tell your friends and by

1498
01:17:27,360 --> 01:17:31,730
doing that you're sort of
pressuring yourself right to to

1499
01:17:31,730 --> 01:17:34,370
to when the temptation comes.
Well, darn it, I'd really like

1500
01:17:34,370 --> 01:17:36,890
that cookie.
But I told my wife, I told my

1501
01:17:36,890 --> 01:17:39,610
friends, I announced on Twitter,
you know that I'm going to lose

1502
01:17:39,610 --> 01:17:42,410
£10 this month.
So I got to do it, you know, And

1503
01:17:42,410 --> 01:17:45,850
there's just lots of examples of
that And I like this anticipate.

1504
01:17:45,850 --> 01:17:48,370
So here's your selfcontrol like
tomorrow morning.

1505
01:17:48,370 --> 01:17:52,090
Tomorrow's Tuesday morning.
The guys leave at 7:00 AM at the

1506
01:17:52,090 --> 01:17:54,730
pier here in Santa Barbara on
our morning bike ride.

1507
01:17:54,770 --> 01:17:57,090
They ride down to Ventura and
back 50 miles round trip.

1508
01:17:57,410 --> 01:18:02,080
They leave at 7, and OK, I got a
They don't wait for me.

1509
01:18:02,560 --> 01:18:06,000
So I got to set the alarm.
I know what I'm gonna future

1510
01:18:06,200 --> 01:18:08,320
Michael is going to be like at
5:00 in the morning.

1511
01:18:08,320 --> 01:18:10,360
I'm not going to like it, set
the alarm.

1512
01:18:10,440 --> 01:18:13,700
But if I have my bike clothes
already out and I got the coffee

1513
01:18:13,700 --> 01:18:16,260
machine ready to go, and my
water bottle is already filled

1514
01:18:16,260 --> 01:18:19,180
and in the fridge, the bike is
in the back of the car ready to

1515
01:18:19,220 --> 01:18:22,100
go, tires are pumped up and so
on, then that's.

1516
01:18:22,420 --> 01:18:25,380
I know that future Shermer is
going to be weak at 5:00 in the

1517
01:18:25,380 --> 01:18:27,420
morning and not want to do those
things and I'm going to miss the

1518
01:18:27,420 --> 01:18:30,780
ride.
So the night before I take all

1519
01:18:30,780 --> 01:18:33,940
these steps, that future Shermer
doesn't have this problem.

1520
01:18:34,620 --> 01:18:37,540
That's basically a model for
everything that we do.

1521
01:18:38,410 --> 01:18:40,690
You know, I don't want to do
this, so I better do that.

1522
01:18:40,690 --> 01:18:42,930
I better make these changes now
for future.

1523
01:18:43,610 --> 01:18:46,330
And you know, this is what, you
know, libertarian paternalism is

1524
01:18:46,330 --> 01:18:47,930
all about.
Most people are not good at

1525
01:18:47,930 --> 01:18:50,690
this.
So, you know, I don't some huge

1526
01:18:50,690 --> 01:18:53,570
for 60% of Americans or
something have no money for

1527
01:18:53,570 --> 01:18:56,130
savings for retirement.
None.

1528
01:18:56,850 --> 01:19:01,010
And and some either huge even
larger percentage would not even

1529
01:19:01,010 --> 01:19:04,480
be able to take like the $400.00
hit in a month where they had

1530
01:19:04,480 --> 01:19:07,440
like a medical emergency.
They don't even have 400 bucks

1531
01:19:07,440 --> 01:19:10,800
to save saved up to cover some
unforeseen expense.

1532
01:19:11,520 --> 01:19:14,880
You know, that's a failure of
projecting yourself into your

1533
01:19:14,880 --> 01:19:16,360
future.
Well, what can we do about that?

1534
01:19:16,840 --> 01:19:19,320
Well, this is what libertarian
paternalism.

1535
01:19:19,320 --> 01:19:22,720
You know, Dick Thaler's theory
that he was part of the Obama

1536
01:19:22,720 --> 01:19:25,760
administration where choice
architecture.

1537
01:19:25,760 --> 01:19:28,660
Right.
So companies will withhold.

1538
01:19:28,660 --> 01:19:31,540
Well, first of all, the
government withholds your your

1539
01:19:31,540 --> 01:19:33,820
taxes, your money before you see
it.

1540
01:19:34,620 --> 01:19:36,740
Right?
Before withholding was invented

1541
01:19:36,740 --> 01:19:40,660
by the IRS, people would
actually deposit their entire

1542
01:19:40,660 --> 01:19:43,820
paycheck and then have to write
a check to the government.

1543
01:19:43,820 --> 01:19:47,060
Well, that the compliance was
much lower because you can see

1544
01:19:47,060 --> 01:19:47,620
it.
There it is.

1545
01:19:47,620 --> 01:19:49,740
It's in my bank account.
No, I have to give it away.

1546
01:19:50,300 --> 01:19:53,380
But if it's taken out of the
paycheck before you even see it,

1547
01:19:53,940 --> 01:19:57,010
right?
Withholding that, you know, that

1548
01:19:57,170 --> 01:19:59,730
makes people feel less bad about
taxes, right?

1549
01:20:00,330 --> 01:20:03,890
So, you know, corporations are
now big corporations.

1550
01:20:03,890 --> 01:20:06,170
You know, you have a retirement
account now, maybe you only work

1551
01:20:06,170 --> 01:20:07,690
there for a year or five years
or whatever.

1552
01:20:07,690 --> 01:20:10,370
You still get some of it.
But they know people are bad

1553
01:20:10,370 --> 01:20:13,090
about this, so they're going to
just withhold some of your

1554
01:20:13,090 --> 01:20:15,130
paycheck every month.
And we're going to take 100

1555
01:20:15,130 --> 01:20:18,610
bucks a month and we're going to
put it in this, you know, S&P

1556
01:20:18,610 --> 01:20:23,330
500 indexed mutual fund for you.
And when you're done here,

1557
01:20:23,330 --> 01:20:24,850
whenever that is, you get the
money.

1558
01:20:25,860 --> 01:20:28,940
Plus all the interest that
accrued on it and then the stock

1559
01:20:28,940 --> 01:20:30,380
market goes up or down, whatever
it does.

1560
01:20:30,860 --> 01:20:33,500
And there's variations of this.
You can have a high risk one

1561
01:20:33,500 --> 01:20:36,180
where maybe you have tech
stocks, a low risk one where you

1562
01:20:36,180 --> 01:20:38,620
have them big cap industrial
companies.

1563
01:20:38,900 --> 01:20:42,540
Maybe you just have bonds that
are guaranteed to go up you know

1564
01:20:42,540 --> 01:20:45,780
1% a year or something And
because that's your preference,

1565
01:20:45,780 --> 01:20:48,830
so you get to choose right.
So this is the libertarian

1566
01:20:48,830 --> 01:20:51,670
fraternal this is the
libertarian part or you know

1567
01:20:51,670 --> 01:20:55,350
menus are designed along this
this line where you know the the

1568
01:20:55,390 --> 01:20:59,790
the the kind of rich sugary
desserts at the back of the menu

1569
01:21:00,190 --> 01:21:03,270
and the healthy stuff or the
cafeteria layout for kids, you

1570
01:21:03,270 --> 01:21:05,990
know in high school the healthy
stuff is at the front of the

1571
01:21:05,990 --> 01:21:08,710
line where you're going down
with your tray and the desserts

1572
01:21:08,710 --> 01:21:10,710
are at the end of the line.
There's just hundreds of

1573
01:21:10,710 --> 01:21:13,870
examples like this in in my here
I'll show you my driver's

1574
01:21:13,870 --> 01:21:15,750
license.
Here from California is another

1575
01:21:15,750 --> 01:21:19,060
example.
Here we go.

1576
01:21:19,620 --> 01:21:23,580
So you'll see a little red dot
there next to my face.

1577
01:21:24,060 --> 01:21:27,220
All right.
So that is me opting in to give

1578
01:21:27,220 --> 01:21:31,180
my organs away if I'm killed and
but my organs are still working

1579
01:21:31,180 --> 01:21:33,460
to somebody who needs my heart,
lungs or whatever.

1580
01:21:33,940 --> 01:21:37,180
And and so I had, but I had to
opt in for that.

1581
01:21:37,260 --> 01:21:39,300
Otherwise I'm not donating my
organs.

1582
01:21:39,540 --> 01:21:43,140
In Oregon, north of us, here in
California, you are donating

1583
01:21:43,140 --> 01:21:46,380
your organs unless you punch the
tab on the driver's license.

1584
01:21:46,380 --> 01:21:49,820
Says I'm opting out.
So Oregon has a much higher rate

1585
01:21:49,900 --> 01:21:53,220
of organ donation than
California just by the choice

1586
01:21:53,220 --> 01:21:55,100
architecture of opt in versus
opt out.

1587
01:21:55,140 --> 01:21:57,660
Okay.
All of this comes from this

1588
01:21:57,660 --> 01:21:58,940
whole free will determinism
thing.

1589
01:21:59,420 --> 01:22:00,660
You know, there's something in
between.

1590
01:22:00,700 --> 01:22:04,140
You know, we we're not free to
do anything, of course, but you

1591
01:22:04,140 --> 01:22:07,700
can nudge people and you can
nudge yourself knowing these

1592
01:22:07,700 --> 01:22:09,900
things to change your future
behavior.

1593
01:22:09,900 --> 01:22:13,950
Well, who is doing that?
You are, you know, well, you as

1594
01:22:13,950 --> 01:22:16,070
a delusion, there is no self.
Oh, come on.

1595
01:22:16,550 --> 01:22:19,710
Yeah, OK, maybe technically
there is no self up there

1596
01:22:19,750 --> 01:22:21,190
somewhere.
It's a whole bunch of neural

1597
01:22:21,190 --> 01:22:24,710
networks in whatever.
But it, you know, again, just

1598
01:22:24,710 --> 01:22:26,470
look out the window.
Common sense.

1599
01:22:26,470 --> 01:22:29,390
When you're walking around,
don't you feel like you're a

1600
01:22:29,750 --> 01:22:32,990
self and people treat you like
you are a person?

1601
01:22:33,780 --> 01:22:37,140
Yeah, yeah, so.
The question is, is it safe to

1602
01:22:37,140 --> 01:22:39,060
actually show your driver's
license?

1603
01:22:39,060 --> 01:22:39,980
I just want to make sure I
don't.

1604
01:22:39,980 --> 01:22:42,620
I don't care.
Just making sure you mean for,

1605
01:22:43,060 --> 01:22:45,740
you mean for.
Yeah, for view ID.

1606
01:22:45,900 --> 01:22:49,580
OK, maybe we better blur that.
I'll cut that out for you.

1607
01:22:49,700 --> 01:22:52,700
Yeah, just in case it showed my
driver's license number, I

1608
01:22:52,700 --> 01:22:53,100
guess.
Yeah.

1609
01:22:53,300 --> 01:22:54,900
I'm not sure what the
implications would be, so I'll

1610
01:22:54,900 --> 01:22:56,620
just cut that out just in case.
Yeah.

1611
01:22:56,660 --> 01:22:58,260
OK.
All right.

1612
01:22:58,420 --> 01:23:01,420
But you get the point.
Yeah, So Michael with, I mean, I

1613
01:23:01,420 --> 01:23:02,820
think the fascinating thing
about.

1614
01:23:03,180 --> 01:23:05,700
Sorry, continue.
Well, I was gonna say you think

1615
01:23:05,700 --> 01:23:07,980
about all these things.
What is your answer to all these

1616
01:23:07,980 --> 01:23:09,300
problems?
How do you think about it?

1617
01:23:09,500 --> 01:23:11,500
I mean, it's such a difficult
one because from a medical

1618
01:23:11,500 --> 01:23:13,420
perspective, when I treat
patients, I try and think about

1619
01:23:13,420 --> 01:23:17,620
okay, do I really apply that?
Cuz there was a very big chunk

1620
01:23:17,620 --> 01:23:21,700
of my life where I did perceive
determinism as the argument and

1621
01:23:21,700 --> 01:23:23,660
the conclusion for me.
I mean, I thought, this is an

1622
01:23:23,660 --> 01:23:25,600
illusion.
I even came into consciousness

1623
01:23:25,600 --> 01:23:28,120
with that perspective when I
first before starting the

1624
01:23:28,120 --> 01:23:30,600
podcast.
I even wrote in my dissertation

1625
01:23:30,640 --> 01:23:32,840
on Illusionism as a theory of
consciousness defender.

1626
01:23:32,840 --> 01:23:35,920
Daniel Dennett, Keith Frankish.
All these all the Illusionists

1627
01:23:36,000 --> 01:23:37,760
and I use psychiatry to back
this up.

1628
01:23:38,440 --> 01:23:40,720
Since starting the podcast, that
view is completely James.

1629
01:23:40,800 --> 01:23:46,240
I have no idea where I stand.
I lay mind body solution with

1630
01:23:46,480 --> 01:23:48,600
the passion of curiosity.
But.

1631
01:23:49,060 --> 01:23:51,940
I always say take one step
closer to the solution rather

1632
01:23:51,940 --> 01:23:54,060
than say we have where we'll
find the solution.

1633
01:23:54,300 --> 01:23:56,620
Because that level of skepticism
is always there.

1634
01:23:56,620 --> 01:23:58,620
I don't think.
I think it's too big a problem.

1635
01:23:58,620 --> 01:24:01,780
I think I'm not even a problem.
I agree with you that even

1636
01:24:01,780 --> 01:24:05,060
saying mind body problem creates
that dichotomy that I still

1637
01:24:05,060 --> 01:24:08,580
don't think we understand and
and we shouldn't even be making

1638
01:24:08,580 --> 01:24:11,890
with so much like fur van.
And tenacity we.

1639
01:24:12,330 --> 01:24:14,490
So I always say one step closer
to the mind body solution.

1640
01:24:14,490 --> 01:24:18,130
But I think I also don't want to
say I'm a mysterian in the sense

1641
01:24:18,130 --> 01:24:21,890
that I think we'll never figure
this out, but I don't think we

1642
01:24:21,890 --> 01:24:23,210
will.
That's the tough one.

1643
01:24:24,170 --> 01:24:27,850
Have you read a book called
Conscious Mind Resonant Brain by

1644
01:24:28,570 --> 01:24:31,050
Steven Grossberg?
No, I don't know that.

1645
01:24:31,130 --> 01:24:34,410
One so Steven Grossberg.
He's an emiratist professor at

1646
01:24:34,410 --> 01:24:37,590
Boston and.
He's a lot of colleagues in the

1647
01:24:37,590 --> 01:24:39,430
field.
A lot of neuroscientists call

1648
01:24:39,430 --> 01:24:42,950
this guy the Einstein of the
mind, the the Newton of the

1649
01:24:42,950 --> 01:24:44,670
brain.
And and they say this with so

1650
01:24:44,670 --> 01:24:49,030
much they mean it.
They legitimately say this like

1651
01:24:49,030 --> 01:24:51,070
he's one of the brightest men of
our time.

1652
01:24:51,550 --> 01:24:54,430
He wrote a book when he was
around 17 on consciousness and

1653
01:24:54,470 --> 01:24:57,950
and just do it.
I'm not even gonna destroy this

1654
01:24:58,030 --> 01:25:00,470
wonderful piece of art, but I
want you to read it at some

1655
01:25:00,470 --> 01:25:01,510
point if you ever get the
chance.

1656
01:25:01,830 --> 01:25:04,150
But there's certain
neuroscientific theories of

1657
01:25:04,150 --> 01:25:05,550
consciousness that I've noticed
that.

1658
01:25:06,070 --> 01:25:08,390
Really really are doing an
amazing job.

1659
01:25:08,390 --> 01:25:10,830
Most of them incorporate a lot
of physics and mathematics at

1660
01:25:10,830 --> 01:25:13,030
this point.
But my biggest concern with that

1661
01:25:13,030 --> 01:25:16,190
is, is we've always done this.
We've always had this this way

1662
01:25:16,190 --> 01:25:18,750
of using the latest science to
explain phenomena.

1663
01:25:18,790 --> 01:25:22,230
So pumps and vessels at one
point I mean consciousness was

1664
01:25:22,470 --> 01:25:25,310
was merely that and and we
continuously do this which is

1665
01:25:25,310 --> 01:25:28,590
why eventually initially I came
to the illusionist argument.

1666
01:25:28,630 --> 01:25:31,070
I think Dennet's approach to
philosophy and science in

1667
01:25:31,070 --> 01:25:34,780
general was very good for.
Science and philosophers,

1668
01:25:34,780 --> 01:25:37,140
scientists and philosophers.
To realize that you have to

1669
01:25:37,140 --> 01:25:39,540
incorporate the neuroscience to
the philosophy.

1670
01:25:40,420 --> 01:25:43,380
There's element there.
What are your thoughts on so in

1671
01:25:43,380 --> 01:25:45,140
conscious?
Yeah, I think, well, I think in

1672
01:25:45,140 --> 01:25:48,380
general neuroscience is still a
fairly new field.

1673
01:25:48,380 --> 01:25:52,500
When I was in undergraduate at
Pepperdine, I took a course in

1674
01:25:52,500 --> 01:25:55,100
physiological psychology.
There was no neuroscience.

1675
01:25:55,100 --> 01:25:57,860
That was it.
And it's like, well, what's this

1676
01:25:57,860 --> 01:26:00,620
okay?
I see neurons and the neural

1677
01:26:00,620 --> 01:26:03,590
system and the brain say, all
right, yeah, I guess this is,

1678
01:26:03,590 --> 01:26:07,230
yeah, this is important, you
know, and that was just the 70s.

1679
01:26:07,350 --> 01:26:10,630
That's not that long ago, that
long history of science, physics

1680
01:26:10,630 --> 01:26:14,590
goes back, you know, hundreds of
years, 4 or 500 years, You know,

1681
01:26:14,590 --> 01:26:18,310
we have a long ways to go.
So I suspect, you know,

1682
01:26:19,110 --> 01:26:22,230
centuries from now, maybe 4 or
500 years from now, if we came

1683
01:26:22,230 --> 01:26:26,470
back, we were chronically frozen
and woken up going, oh, oh, we

1684
01:26:26,470 --> 01:26:29,310
didn't know this.
And that explains the mind body

1685
01:26:29,310 --> 01:26:30,950
problem or the hard problem of
consciousness.

1686
01:26:31,270 --> 01:26:32,790
We're not even asking it that
way.

1687
01:26:32,790 --> 01:26:34,270
We're asking it this completely
new way.

1688
01:26:34,270 --> 01:26:35,790
Oh, I see.
Yeah, that makes more sense.

1689
01:26:36,480 --> 01:26:39,680
But if I knew what that was, I
would implement it.

1690
01:26:39,680 --> 01:26:41,640
But I don't.
I just don't know what people,

1691
01:26:41,640 --> 01:26:43,840
how people are gonna conceive.
I mean, you mentioned this book.

1692
01:26:43,840 --> 01:26:45,800
I didn't know.
There's a lot of books on this.

1693
01:26:45,800 --> 01:26:48,640
And, you know, maybe this guy's
got it right, but maybe not.

1694
01:26:48,680 --> 01:26:50,240
I don't know.
But maybe there'll be somebody,

1695
01:26:50,240 --> 01:26:55,690
another Newton of the mind in a
century from now and you know,

1696
01:26:55,770 --> 01:26:57,290
and he'll figure it out.
Or she'll figure it out.

1697
01:26:57,330 --> 01:26:59,050
Whatever.
So I you know, I don't know.

1698
01:26:59,290 --> 01:27:02,010
It's I was going to touch on.
Sorry, I didn't really answer

1699
01:27:02,010 --> 01:27:03,490
your question though.
But in terms of the free will

1700
01:27:03,490 --> 01:27:06,410
debate, I mean, when I practice
with patients, I found it very

1701
01:27:06,410 --> 01:27:08,810
difficult to then apply those
theories as we were just

1702
01:27:08,810 --> 01:27:10,530
discussing.
It's it's impossible.

1703
01:27:10,530 --> 01:27:13,490
It's very difficult to apply
that practically to a patient if

1704
01:27:13,490 --> 01:27:16,010
you're trying to change someone,
make their life better somehow.

1705
01:27:16,680 --> 01:27:20,560
You can't just tell them that
reality controls everything and

1706
01:27:20,560 --> 01:27:23,360
there's nothing.
I mean, it just does not work

1707
01:27:23,360 --> 01:27:26,240
practically.
So there is that morality slash

1708
01:27:26,240 --> 01:27:28,760
ethical dilemma, practical
dilemma that we have to face.

1709
01:27:29,080 --> 01:27:30,760
And I mean obviously that's
something we're gonna have to

1710
01:27:30,760 --> 01:27:33,080
touch on in terms of the free
will debate.

1711
01:27:33,240 --> 01:27:37,000
What is your understanding of
its implications on morality?

1712
01:27:37,000 --> 01:27:39,760
And well, the research on that
is pretty clear now.

1713
01:27:39,760 --> 01:27:44,280
I think that you know people
that are primed to consider the

1714
01:27:44,280 --> 01:27:48,570
determinist position as the
correct one, then feel they have

1715
01:27:48,570 --> 01:27:51,810
less personal responsibility,
less accountability for their

1716
01:27:51,810 --> 01:27:54,410
moral actions.
They feel like there's no point

1717
01:27:54,410 --> 01:27:57,090
in trying to do things because
it's all determined.

1718
01:27:57,450 --> 01:27:59,090
I don't think it's a good
position to take.

1719
01:27:59,730 --> 01:28:02,890
The implications of what you
believe does not make something

1720
01:28:02,890 --> 01:28:06,330
true or false, but it.
But it certainly suggests

1721
01:28:06,330 --> 01:28:10,370
strongly that what people
believe matters in terms of

1722
01:28:10,370 --> 01:28:13,250
their behavior.
And believing that you have some

1723
01:28:13,250 --> 01:28:16,070
volition and you can do
something about of your life

1724
01:28:16,350 --> 01:28:19,750
does make people more likely to
do something about their lives,

1725
01:28:19,750 --> 01:28:21,750
right?
So again, these clinical

1726
01:28:21,750 --> 01:28:24,670
psychologists that work in this
field that you know, like

1727
01:28:24,670 --> 01:28:27,550
addiction and cigarette smoking
and things like that,

1728
01:28:27,550 --> 01:28:31,710
self-control, you know, they,
they definitely present a model

1729
01:28:31,710 --> 01:28:35,030
in which you can change.
And here are the patients I've

1730
01:28:35,030 --> 01:28:36,630
worked with that have changed
their lives.

1731
01:28:37,190 --> 01:28:39,190
Testimonials.
They have databases of this.

1732
01:28:39,750 --> 01:28:42,550
You know that people really do
gain more self-control by

1733
01:28:42,550 --> 01:28:45,110
understanding what the causal
vectors are.

1734
01:28:45,790 --> 01:28:48,430
Causal vectors influencing
vectors or something.

1735
01:28:48,630 --> 01:28:50,390
You know that that shapes their
lives.

1736
01:28:50,390 --> 01:28:52,790
And knowing that you can do
something about it, you know,

1737
01:28:52,950 --> 01:28:55,550
maybe not every time.
You know there are still people

1738
01:28:55,550 --> 01:28:59,590
dying of the opioid crisis
because you know they they just

1739
01:28:59,590 --> 01:29:02,190
can't control themselves.
They just just try and try.

1740
01:29:02,190 --> 01:29:05,050
They just can't do it.
The rest of us are paying for

1741
01:29:05,050 --> 01:29:06,370
that.
In a way, this is another part

1742
01:29:06,370 --> 01:29:08,250
of this debate about
painkillers.

1743
01:29:08,610 --> 01:29:10,450
You know, there's a lot of
people that need painkillers are

1744
01:29:10,450 --> 01:29:14,410
now having a hard time getting
them because the doctors are

1745
01:29:15,050 --> 01:29:18,010
afraid of getting sued and, you
know, somebody kills over dead.

1746
01:29:18,010 --> 01:29:20,650
The authorities are coming after
them because of what happened

1747
01:29:20,650 --> 01:29:24,410
with the Purdue pharmaceutical
and the Sacre family and all the

1748
01:29:24,410 --> 01:29:28,730
lies about the addictiveness of
these painkillers.

1749
01:29:29,250 --> 01:29:33,530
I'm just watching that Netflix
docudrama on this.

1750
01:29:33,850 --> 01:29:36,090
No, it's just a drama called
painkillers.

1751
01:29:36,090 --> 01:29:37,610
It's I think 6 parts or
whatever.

1752
01:29:37,610 --> 01:29:40,450
It's really worth it to watch.
Had they just lied?

1753
01:29:40,530 --> 01:29:42,410
I mean, and they captured the
regulatory state?

1754
01:29:42,530 --> 01:29:47,220
I mean, when RFK Jr. rants about
Big Pharma, he's right about

1755
01:29:47,220 --> 01:29:48,900
that part.
You know, they really did.

1756
01:29:48,900 --> 01:29:50,860
They just pay off these
regulators.

1757
01:29:52,220 --> 01:29:55,260
It's like, astonishing.
Cuz we're.

1758
01:29:55,500 --> 01:29:57,740
I mean, when I practice, I mean,
I'm often thinking about these

1759
01:29:57,740 --> 01:30:00,260
things.
I'm wondering like, and even

1760
01:30:00,260 --> 01:30:02,580
within the medical community,
when you try and have a

1761
01:30:02,580 --> 01:30:04,980
conversation like that to a
medical doctor, a colleague.

1762
01:30:05,920 --> 01:30:08,120
The moment you bring these
things up, they immediately

1763
01:30:08,120 --> 01:30:09,280
label it.
I mean, your books call

1764
01:30:09,280 --> 01:30:12,240
conspiracy, but they immediately
think it's a conspiracy.

1765
01:30:12,280 --> 01:30:15,960
They don't even go beyond to try
and determine whether they views

1766
01:30:15,960 --> 01:30:19,360
their values.
Their ethics were formed and

1767
01:30:19,360 --> 01:30:22,520
just almost curated.
And because Med schools, a long

1768
01:30:22,520 --> 01:30:25,120
process, it's a very long
journey to indoctrination.

1769
01:30:25,120 --> 01:30:27,640
And I'm not saying that
obviously the medical science we

1770
01:30:27,640 --> 01:30:30,560
were taught is incorrect, but I
am saying it is faltered with so

1771
01:30:30,560 --> 01:30:33,480
much misinformation and guidance
from above that we don't really

1772
01:30:33,480 --> 01:30:37,700
take note.
And and understand, yeah, I

1773
01:30:37,700 --> 01:30:41,020
think this is happening in the
trans movement now to the the

1774
01:30:41,020 --> 01:30:45,940
medical profession seems to be
buying into the idea of gender

1775
01:30:45,940 --> 01:30:51,380
dysphoria as being much more
pervasive than it actually is or

1776
01:30:51,380 --> 01:30:53,780
it ever was.
It was always there at some tiny

1777
01:30:54,780 --> 01:30:58,020
percentage.
It was like 110th of 1% people

1778
01:30:58,020 --> 01:30:59,500
like this.
And now all of a sudden it's,

1779
01:30:59,500 --> 01:31:04,020
you know, 10 percent, 20% you
know these kids or even more.

1780
01:31:04,760 --> 01:31:08,400
And you know most of the Medical
Association seem to be buying

1781
01:31:08,400 --> 01:31:10,320
into this.
Some of the ones in Europe now

1782
01:31:10,320 --> 01:31:13,680
are having a change of heart on
this, that this is probably not

1783
01:31:13,680 --> 01:31:15,320
a good idea.
And the evidence doesn't look

1784
01:31:15,320 --> 01:31:19,880
like medically transitioning a
child reduces their or the

1785
01:31:19,880 --> 01:31:23,840
teenager especially reduces
their anxiety, depression and

1786
01:31:24,200 --> 01:31:27,880
mental issues they're having by
going through puberty thinking,

1787
01:31:27,880 --> 01:31:30,760
well if I maybe I'm in the wrong
body this is the model.

1788
01:31:31,240 --> 01:31:35,960
And therefore my mental issues
psychiatric issues, depression,

1789
01:31:35,960 --> 01:31:39,520
anxiety and so forth will go
away if I transition.

1790
01:31:39,720 --> 01:31:43,280
It doesn't look like that's
happening at all And and and a

1791
01:31:43,280 --> 01:31:46,880
lot of these kids are being
sterilized and you know ruin for

1792
01:31:46,880 --> 01:31:51,160
life sexually and in their
gender is confused.

1793
01:31:51,240 --> 01:31:56,280
So anyway, but I I think some
somehow the medical profession

1794
01:31:56,280 --> 01:32:01,200
got captured by this ideology in
the way that, you know, we all

1795
01:32:01,200 --> 01:32:04,160
want to be liberal, tolerant and
accepting of people the way they

1796
01:32:04,160 --> 01:32:06,280
are.
And if they tell us this the way

1797
01:32:06,280 --> 01:32:09,720
they are, you know, I've got
somebody says I am gay, OK, you

1798
01:32:09,720 --> 01:32:11,200
know, but what do I know what's
in your head?

1799
01:32:11,520 --> 01:32:13,920
And that should be OK.
You should be the way you want.

1800
01:32:14,280 --> 01:32:19,060
So I think it's like an
extension of that and but at

1801
01:32:19,060 --> 01:32:22,020
some point, didn't you take up
an oath to first do no harm,

1802
01:32:22,860 --> 01:32:25,340
right.
So you know, maybe we should do

1803
01:32:25,340 --> 01:32:27,980
some watchful waiting here and,
you know, not get captured.

1804
01:32:27,980 --> 01:32:31,540
But anyway, the larger point
here is, is, is that even

1805
01:32:31,540 --> 01:32:34,460
medical professional
organizations can get captured

1806
01:32:35,500 --> 01:32:38,790
by things and that, you know,
that's this is my problem with

1807
01:32:38,790 --> 01:32:41,030
Darf K Junior because he, you
know, he's a vaccine tonight.

1808
01:32:41,070 --> 01:32:44,790
He has a lot of goofy ideas that
are just obviously wrong and he

1809
01:32:44,790 --> 01:32:46,710
never changes his mind.
That's the other thing that

1810
01:32:46,830 --> 01:32:48,710
bothers.
I only want to be right.

1811
01:32:48,710 --> 01:32:51,350
I don't want to be wrong.
If somebody will just show me

1812
01:32:51,350 --> 01:32:52,470
where I'm wrong, I'll change my
mind.

1813
01:32:52,470 --> 01:32:55,390
Well, then people do.
And he doesn't respond so that

1814
01:32:55,390 --> 01:32:58,590
you that he's not a fair actor,
you know, but he's right when he

1815
01:32:58,590 --> 01:33:01,230
says, you know, you can't really
trust big corporations and big

1816
01:33:01,230 --> 01:33:05,060
government agencies because they
they're corrupt and it's like,

1817
01:33:05,060 --> 01:33:08,100
yeah, there isn't a lot of
examples of that that's

1818
01:33:08,100 --> 01:33:10,180
unfortunate that way.
And I think those those are two

1819
01:33:10,180 --> 01:33:12,100
examples.
Yeah.

1820
01:33:12,100 --> 01:33:14,980
And I think it's important to
know that people, people often

1821
01:33:14,980 --> 01:33:17,580
think that you have to agree
with everything someone says to

1822
01:33:17,580 --> 01:33:21,260
agree with someone, which is the
biggest, I mean it's it's the

1823
01:33:21,260 --> 01:33:24,180
worst thing you can actually do.
I mean when I'm talking to these

1824
01:33:24,180 --> 01:33:26,580
guests and if I agree with
certain aspects they often

1825
01:33:26,580 --> 01:33:28,660
think, then they label me into a
category with him.

1826
01:33:29,270 --> 01:33:32,190
And so I must be let's say I
must think consciousness is

1827
01:33:32,190 --> 01:33:34,590
fundamental, because I'm talking
to Bernardo Donna.

1828
01:33:34,590 --> 01:33:36,950
I actually love these ideas.
It's great to explore them.

1829
01:33:37,390 --> 01:33:39,710
And we don't have to agree.
That's the beauty behind this

1830
01:33:39,710 --> 01:33:41,310
podcast.
You're exploring these ideas.

1831
01:33:41,310 --> 01:33:44,030
That's the beauty behind yours.
You're able to have a diverse

1832
01:33:44,030 --> 01:33:47,310
variety of opinions without
trying to indoctrinate someone

1833
01:33:47,310 --> 01:33:50,390
or change their belief or
dogmatize them somehow.

1834
01:33:51,850 --> 01:33:53,130
Oh, totally.
I love the ideas.

1835
01:33:53,130 --> 01:33:55,570
Like, are we living in a Matrix?
You know, this is fun.

1836
01:33:56,490 --> 01:34:00,210
You talked about this for hours.
In fact, David Traumer's latest

1837
01:34:00,210 --> 01:34:03,410
book is on this essentially
that, you know, we're kind of,

1838
01:34:03,730 --> 01:34:07,050
we could be living in a matrix
kind of thing and an

1839
01:34:07,050 --> 01:34:10,610
artificially induced, you know,
reality and so on.

1840
01:34:10,930 --> 01:34:13,610
It's big fun.
But again, back to your

1841
01:34:13,610 --> 01:34:16,770
comments, Tomski's common sense.
Go outside and look around.

1842
01:34:16,770 --> 01:34:18,370
Does it look like we're living
in a Matrix?

1843
01:34:18,610 --> 01:34:20,290
Is there any, like, buffering
going on?

1844
01:34:20,290 --> 01:34:25,240
Like oh.
The last video I just posted on

1845
01:34:25,360 --> 01:34:30,520
fill out the podcast as with Tom
Campbell and the tagline was we

1846
01:34:30,520 --> 01:34:32,720
live in a virtual reality.
It's very similar.

1847
01:34:32,720 --> 01:34:35,520
They start with the same premise
of OK, consciousness is

1848
01:34:35,520 --> 01:34:37,240
fundamental and it's all
information.

1849
01:34:37,440 --> 01:34:40,840
See the fascinating part is is
it becomes after that assumption

1850
01:34:40,840 --> 01:34:43,800
is made, the science behind it
becomes very accurate.

1851
01:34:43,800 --> 01:34:46,560
So he then goes into the
evolution of species.

1852
01:34:46,600 --> 01:34:49,160
Everything else is still very
detailed and well.

1853
01:34:50,070 --> 01:34:51,390
Yeah.
And and that's when when the

1854
01:34:51,390 --> 01:34:54,950
when the argument becomes quite
difficult to to counter because

1855
01:34:54,950 --> 01:34:58,830
it's still grounded in so much
science and it almost has some

1856
01:34:58,830 --> 01:35:02,470
more explanatory power sometimes
when you start questioning your

1857
01:35:02,470 --> 01:35:05,950
own reality and I'm always I'm
like what what is going on here?

1858
01:35:08,710 --> 01:35:11,630
I don't know.
I'd say it's highly unlikely

1859
01:35:11,630 --> 01:35:13,750
we're living.
I mean, I get the arguments, you

1860
01:35:13,750 --> 01:35:16,150
know, the what are the change
Perkin principle were the

1861
01:35:16,150 --> 01:35:18,430
chances that you know that we're
the first, we're probably in the

1862
01:35:18,430 --> 01:35:20,950
middle of the civilizations and
some are more advanced and

1863
01:35:20,950 --> 01:35:23,870
they've created this virtual
reality and we're one of those.

1864
01:35:24,030 --> 01:35:27,310
Yeah, maybe, but it's got to be
running on a hardware somewhere.

1865
01:35:28,020 --> 01:35:30,740
It can't just be all virtue,
right?

1866
01:35:30,740 --> 01:35:33,860
Virtual, as I understand it,
virtual reality, you have to

1867
01:35:33,860 --> 01:35:37,220
have a hardware system set up
that runs the original program,

1868
01:35:37,860 --> 01:35:40,540
and you could have programs on
top of within programs, but

1869
01:35:40,540 --> 01:35:42,900
there has to be a hardware
somewhere, so you'd have to have

1870
01:35:43,220 --> 01:35:47,420
a massive amount of memory to
run an entire universe as a

1871
01:35:47,420 --> 01:35:50,820
virtual reality.
I mean, Frank Tipler in his book

1872
01:35:50,820 --> 01:35:58,720
The Physics of Immortality, it'd
have to be 10 to the power bits

1873
01:35:58,720 --> 01:36:01,720
to replicate everybody, whoever
lived.

1874
01:36:02,040 --> 01:36:05,640
And the and the universe itself,
essentially, it's just the

1875
01:36:05,640 --> 01:36:07,240
universe, it's great, the
universe.

1876
01:36:08,720 --> 01:36:11,640
And that that's how many digits
there, binary digits there are

1877
01:36:11,640 --> 01:36:15,520
in or something like that.
But again, what's what's more

1878
01:36:15,520 --> 01:36:17,680
likely?
I mean, let's go look outside.

1879
01:36:17,680 --> 01:36:22,600
It doesn't seem like that we're
living in a virtual reality.

1880
01:36:22,600 --> 01:36:33,290
I don't know my favorites.
Mike, sorry.

1881
01:36:33,290 --> 01:36:36,170
I think, Michael, I think it
froze a little there.

1882
01:36:37,130 --> 01:36:39,170
Just make sure my connection's
stable on this side.

1883
01:36:39,170 --> 01:36:48,190
We had an issue earlier,
Michael.

1884
01:36:48,190 --> 01:36:50,590
Sorry about that.
There we go.

1885
01:36:50,910 --> 01:36:51,630
Sorry about that.
I'm not.

1886
01:36:51,710 --> 01:36:53,030
There we go, I.
Have no idea.

1887
01:36:53,030 --> 01:36:59,470
Hey, maybe I know what happened.
We are in a matrix and somebody

1888
01:36:59,470 --> 01:37:02,510
got pissed that we identified
them and they cut us off.

1889
01:37:04,210 --> 01:37:07,410
That's so OK, I think a great
thing to do at this point.

1890
01:37:07,570 --> 01:37:10,010
Let's shift it, cuz I mean
you're not someone who's an

1891
01:37:10,010 --> 01:37:11,490
idealist, so let's not even
focus on that.

1892
01:37:11,490 --> 01:37:14,530
Let's go back into the material
grounding and discuss So within

1893
01:37:14,530 --> 01:37:16,850
consciousness, Michael, there's
different theories of

1894
01:37:16,850 --> 01:37:18,690
consciousness within a
physicalist perspective.

1895
01:37:18,890 --> 01:37:21,250
You've got illusionists, you've
got pan cycles of thing at this

1896
01:37:21,250 --> 01:37:23,690
incremental levels of what could
be conscious.

1897
01:37:24,460 --> 01:37:27,020
Emergentism.
So at some point add enough

1898
01:37:27,020 --> 01:37:28,820
complexity, you'll get to the
outcome.

1899
01:37:28,820 --> 01:37:31,100
I mean, there's obviously
philosophical ideas, but they

1900
01:37:31,300 --> 01:37:32,740
have many scientific
implications.

1901
01:37:32,740 --> 01:37:36,180
I mean, Christophe, Cock, Pan,
psychism can work with IIT very

1902
01:37:36,180 --> 01:37:37,820
well.
Where do you fall within this

1903
01:37:37,820 --> 01:37:42,020
spectrum of ideas?
I do think it's a, you know,

1904
01:37:42,020 --> 01:37:45,980
complex adaptive systems in
which you know more layers of

1905
01:37:46,300 --> 01:37:49,180
neural networks.
The more complex your conscious

1906
01:37:49,500 --> 01:37:53,450
sentience can be, you know, I
think all animals have some

1907
01:37:53,450 --> 01:37:56,050
level of sentience.
I think my dog like Christoph

1908
01:37:56,170 --> 01:37:59,290
talks about his dog a lot.
You know, I think my dog is

1909
01:37:59,290 --> 01:38:01,690
sentient for sure.
And he has, you know, is he

1910
01:38:01,690 --> 01:38:05,170
conscious, you know, okay.
So much of it depends on how you

1911
01:38:05,170 --> 01:38:07,290
define these terms.
And we just say, you know,

1912
01:38:07,290 --> 01:38:10,650
consciousness, form of
sentience, you're aware of your

1913
01:38:10,650 --> 01:38:13,050
environment and you have a model
of your environment.

1914
01:38:13,050 --> 01:38:14,650
You interact with the
environment.

1915
01:38:15,820 --> 01:38:18,180
If you want to go beyond that,
you're aware that you're aware.

1916
01:38:18,300 --> 01:38:20,100
I don't think my dog's aware
that he's aware.

1917
01:38:20,100 --> 01:38:23,500
Of course I wouldn't know for
sure, but it seems unlikely that

1918
01:38:23,500 --> 01:38:27,020
requires, you know, layers on
top of layers of neural network,

1919
01:38:27,020 --> 01:38:31,100
something like that, you know.
Antonio Damasio has this theory

1920
01:38:31,100 --> 01:38:33,300
about the, you know, the models
of the of the world.

1921
01:38:33,300 --> 01:38:36,180
The brain has these models of
everything, so they can even

1922
01:38:36,180 --> 01:38:39,500
just navigate around the room
here without bumping into stuff.

1923
01:38:39,500 --> 01:38:41,020
I have a model of what the room
is like.

1924
01:38:41,020 --> 01:38:43,950
I have a model in my body.
I know how my body have a model

1925
01:38:43,950 --> 01:38:46,350
of how my body moves around
these objects and so on.

1926
01:38:46,350 --> 01:38:48,470
And it's just models on top of
models.

1927
01:38:48,470 --> 01:38:52,910
But you know in a kind of a meta
way, if you have models and

1928
01:38:52,910 --> 01:38:56,150
models and models and models, at
some point you know

1929
01:38:56,150 --> 01:38:59,190
consciousness just kinds of kind
of emerges.

1930
01:39:00,070 --> 01:39:02,910
Consciousness in this sort of
self consciousness way, you

1931
01:39:02,910 --> 01:39:06,670
know, I'm aware that I'm aware
of my models something like

1932
01:39:06,670 --> 01:39:10,890
that, although that always had a
feeling to me of and then a

1933
01:39:10,890 --> 01:39:14,690
miracle happens.
So we have this physical system

1934
01:39:14,690 --> 01:39:17,610
and it gets more complex and
then this magical thing happens

1935
01:39:17,610 --> 01:39:20,170
and consciousness happens.
You know what's the?

1936
01:39:20,290 --> 01:39:21,650
Combination.
How do we implement pen

1937
01:39:21,650 --> 01:39:23,090
psychism?
It's the combination problem.

1938
01:39:23,090 --> 01:39:26,130
I mean, at what right?
It's really happening and we

1939
01:39:26,130 --> 01:39:30,130
don't have an explanation for
that, right?

1940
01:39:30,130 --> 01:39:33,510
It feels like we're we're doing
the God of the gaps argument.

1941
01:39:33,510 --> 01:39:36,350
And then in that gap right
there, that's where the miracle

1942
01:39:36,350 --> 01:39:38,350
happens.
Or God steps in, or the

1943
01:39:38,350 --> 01:39:42,350
consciousness comes online or I
don't know again, that that may

1944
01:39:42,350 --> 01:39:44,310
be a conceptual problem we're
talking about.

1945
01:39:44,950 --> 01:39:48,430
Maybe we just don't understand
enough about the brain, you

1946
01:39:48,430 --> 01:39:52,950
know, again, I'm old enough
about to turn 69 next week that

1947
01:39:53,030 --> 01:39:56,510
I remember older theories of
consciousness and how the brain

1948
01:39:56,510 --> 01:39:57,910
works, and they're always
changing.

1949
01:39:58,590 --> 01:40:00,590
And it's like, maybe we just
really don't know.

1950
01:40:00,920 --> 01:40:05,320
Enough to know how to get to an
answer or even construct the

1951
01:40:05,320 --> 01:40:08,440
problem in a way that's
answerable, that it's a soluble

1952
01:40:08,440 --> 01:40:10,880
problem.
And it could be the way we're

1953
01:40:10,960 --> 01:40:14,840
treating the hard problem of
consciousness is, in a way, it's

1954
01:40:14,880 --> 01:40:17,640
insoluble in that way.
That is to say what it's like to

1955
01:40:17,640 --> 01:40:19,840
be something you know, how would
it?

1956
01:40:20,080 --> 01:40:21,720
How you know?
How would you answer that

1957
01:40:21,720 --> 01:40:23,840
question?
What it's like to be a bat, you

1958
01:40:23,840 --> 01:40:27,360
know, well, if I, if I went into
my little closet over there and

1959
01:40:27,360 --> 01:40:31,320
close the door and I I could
tell you know, which by the

1960
01:40:31,320 --> 01:40:34,600
structure of the closet, which
way without seeing anything, the

1961
01:40:34,600 --> 01:40:36,200
structure of it just by my
voice.

1962
01:40:36,680 --> 01:40:40,160
So maybe that's kind of what
it's like to use sonar like a

1963
01:40:40,160 --> 01:40:42,760
bat does, you know, bouncing
sound ways up.

1964
01:40:42,760 --> 01:40:45,520
But you know that's just a crude
approximation.

1965
01:40:46,040 --> 01:40:49,520
You know, maybe if I bolted on
some big ears and I, you know,

1966
01:40:49,960 --> 01:40:55,760
develop some sound system and I
change my cortex and at some

1967
01:40:55,760 --> 01:40:59,120
point I would just be a bat.
Yeah, exactly.

1968
01:40:59,120 --> 01:41:01,880
And I I wouldn't be, I wouldn't
be a human asking what it's like

1969
01:41:01,880 --> 01:41:03,760
to be a bat.
I would just be a bat, not

1970
01:41:03,760 --> 01:41:06,840
wondering anything except for
maybe what it's like to be a

1971
01:41:06,840 --> 01:41:10,640
human.
So in a way, I I just don't see

1972
01:41:10,840 --> 01:41:12,840
how the problem could be
answered.

1973
01:41:12,840 --> 01:41:14,560
You know, the the problem of
other minds.

1974
01:41:14,720 --> 01:41:17,840
You know, I don't know for sure
that you're not just, you know,

1975
01:41:17,840 --> 01:41:21,470
a philosophical zombie and it it
looks like.

1976
01:41:21,510 --> 01:41:23,950
I mean, you're nodding.
It looks like you're

1977
01:41:23,950 --> 01:41:26,750
comprehending what I'm saying
but you could you could just be

1978
01:41:26,750 --> 01:41:31,350
some robot that fakes all that.
I don't know for sure, but I so

1979
01:41:31,350 --> 01:41:33,630
here I apply the pretty good
principle to myself.

1980
01:41:34,630 --> 01:41:36,750
I do what you do.
I'm not special.

1981
01:41:36,950 --> 01:41:39,390
You're probably not special.
You're probably just another

1982
01:41:39,390 --> 01:41:42,110
human like me.
And all our brains are pretty

1983
01:41:42,110 --> 01:41:46,270
much wired up the same way with
with neurotransmitter substances

1984
01:41:46,270 --> 01:41:49,910
and synapses and it's prop.
You're probably feeling what I'm

1985
01:41:49,910 --> 01:41:52,350
feeling.
There's a good chance that when

1986
01:41:52,350 --> 01:41:56,030
you show emotions that I
recognize, there's a reasonable

1987
01:41:56,030 --> 01:41:58,350
chance that you are feeling what
I feel inside.

1988
01:41:58,830 --> 01:42:01,630
That seems about as good as it
can get without my actually

1989
01:42:01,630 --> 01:42:04,670
knowing for sure that your red
looks like my red or whatever.

1990
01:42:05,550 --> 01:42:07,830
Yeah, that's the thing.
It's fundamentally, That's why I

1991
01:42:07,830 --> 01:42:10,390
think it really is one of those
impossible tasks.

1992
01:42:10,390 --> 01:42:12,390
It's like hitting hitting a
brick wall.

1993
01:42:13,950 --> 01:42:17,590
It's almost impossible to ever
really experience someone else's

1994
01:42:17,590 --> 01:42:19,710
read.
It's almost like a fundamental

1995
01:42:20,350 --> 01:42:23,630
impossibility of reality.
But then again, I don't want to

1996
01:42:23,630 --> 01:42:26,830
talk as far as saying that this
is almost an Ian Vital of

1997
01:42:26,830 --> 01:42:31,080
another topic.
Well, I don't know.

1998
01:42:31,080 --> 01:42:32,520
It's back to that kind of
dualism.

1999
01:42:32,520 --> 01:42:36,760
It suggests that the little
homunculus in me, my mini me can

2000
01:42:36,760 --> 01:42:39,920
tiptoe over into your skull to
see what your red looks like.

2001
01:42:40,680 --> 01:42:43,560
I mean, it's just that it's just
a incomprehensible idea.

2002
01:42:44,000 --> 01:42:46,080
It is.
It's just fundamentally, I mean

2003
01:42:46,080 --> 01:42:48,880
and that's another example, I
mean we're still stuck in that

2004
01:42:48,880 --> 01:42:51,000
dualistic way of thinking.
I mean even with the with the

2005
01:42:51,000 --> 01:42:52,640
virtual reality, I mean if
there's a software or a

2006
01:42:52,640 --> 01:42:55,120
hardware, there still has to be
these two elements almost.

2007
01:42:55,120 --> 01:42:57,520
It's it's like we've got to have
these two.

2008
01:42:57,960 --> 01:42:59,880
Component parts in order to have
this discussion, which is

2009
01:42:59,880 --> 01:43:02,320
strange to very difficult to
escape.

2010
01:43:03,840 --> 01:43:05,560
Yeah, back to, you know,
Chomsky.

2011
01:43:05,560 --> 01:43:07,120
It's like, what?
What does it seem like?

2012
01:43:07,120 --> 01:43:08,360
Use common sense.
Come on.

2013
01:43:09,600 --> 01:43:12,720
Isn't it more likely that all
the other people around you or,

2014
01:43:12,720 --> 01:43:17,160
you know, like you, they're not
philosophical zombies, And while

2015
01:43:17,160 --> 01:43:19,720
you can't know exactly what
they're feeling, you can ask,

2016
01:43:20,120 --> 01:43:22,240
You can look, You can be
perceptive.

2017
01:43:22,680 --> 01:43:25,520
Well, here's this person crying
on the sidewalk and they're

2018
01:43:25,520 --> 01:43:28,300
lying there.
I suspect they feel sad.

2019
01:43:28,500 --> 01:43:30,820
That's a reasonable assumption,
right?

2020
01:43:30,820 --> 01:43:32,740
There's something going on.
I'm gonna walk over there and

2021
01:43:32,740 --> 01:43:35,820
go, are you okay?
Can I do something to help?

2022
01:43:36,300 --> 01:43:40,180
You know, it's not delusional.
That's a reasonable assumption.

2023
01:43:40,940 --> 01:43:44,180
Your initial approach when you
focused on that sentence, you

2024
01:43:44,180 --> 01:43:48,020
know Nicholas Hutfrey, I'm sure.
Yeah, I don't know.

2025
01:43:48,100 --> 01:43:49,180
Intent.
Yeah.

2026
01:43:49,260 --> 01:43:52,540
He wrote the book Sentience, so
he calls it almost the invention

2027
01:43:52,540 --> 01:43:54,580
of consciousness.
So he started off as an

2028
01:43:54,580 --> 01:43:58,180
illusionist cuz he believes that
these introspective ideas that

2029
01:43:58,180 --> 01:44:00,900
we have about the mind and the
way we introspect about it

2030
01:44:01,180 --> 01:44:03,460
eventually culminates into this
conclusion that we have this

2031
01:44:03,460 --> 01:44:06,180
almost essence like entity that
is consciousness.

2032
01:44:06,180 --> 01:44:08,020
And that's the fundamental
problem, is the way we're

2033
01:44:08,020 --> 01:44:12,470
conceiving of this entity.
But his view also changed over

2034
01:44:12,470 --> 01:44:14,150
time.
And then his view became what he

2035
01:44:14,150 --> 01:44:18,630
now calls phenomenal surrealism.
He actually thinks that in fact

2036
01:44:18,710 --> 01:44:23,390
the the essence like experience
that we are experiencing, even

2037
01:44:23,390 --> 01:44:26,990
though it might be something
akin to an interesting illusion,

2038
01:44:27,630 --> 01:44:31,590
it's still actually more real
than than what red actually is.

2039
01:44:31,590 --> 01:44:34,870
So in essence, because we're
experiencing redness from this

2040
01:44:34,870 --> 01:44:38,150
wonderful mechanism that we call
my bodies.

2041
01:44:38,630 --> 01:44:41,350
It turns out to be even more
real than the actual reality,

2042
01:44:41,350 --> 01:44:45,710
because this is our fundamental.
I might be butchering it a

2043
01:44:45,710 --> 01:44:49,030
little bit, but that's basically
where he goes with it.

2044
01:44:50,430 --> 01:44:53,550
Yeah, I was trying to pull up
something here to read.

2045
01:44:54,390 --> 01:44:57,390
Steve Pinker had a nice
description of this problem in

2046
01:44:57,390 --> 01:45:01,190
his book Enlightenment.
Now let me see if I can find it.

2047
01:45:01,190 --> 01:45:02,870
I don't have the book here in
front of me, but I.

2048
01:45:02,990 --> 01:45:04,310
And he also wrote a book did it,
I think.

2049
01:45:04,350 --> 01:45:07,230
It was called How Minds Work.
I think I've got a chair

2050
01:45:07,230 --> 01:45:08,350
somewhere.
Yeah.

2051
01:45:08,350 --> 01:45:12,150
That was his second book.
Language Instinct was the first

2052
01:45:12,150 --> 01:45:14,430
one.
Yeah.

2053
01:45:14,430 --> 01:45:17,950
OK, let's see.
No, I don't have that.

2054
01:45:18,030 --> 01:45:21,430
But the ones like the but anyway
it yeah, but.

2055
01:45:21,430 --> 01:45:26,670
But the idea is, again, it may
just be one of these insoluble

2056
01:45:26,670 --> 01:45:29,510
problems because of the way
we're conceptualizing it in the

2057
01:45:29,510 --> 01:45:30,950
first place.
Yeah.

2058
01:45:31,030 --> 01:45:33,990
I mean does that there's clearly
that language elements that that

2059
01:45:33,990 --> 01:45:36,620
really does limit us?
Yeah, I mean, we can only do

2060
01:45:37,020 --> 01:45:39,540
science based on the way we
could communicate the science.

2061
01:45:39,540 --> 01:45:42,380
I mean, even the way we think.
Yeah, Never really step out of

2062
01:45:42,380 --> 01:45:45,260
language while thinking like
when I'm thinking, OK, I'm gonna

2063
01:45:45,260 --> 01:45:48,820
talk to Michael later, I'm still
thinking about me saying the

2064
01:45:48,820 --> 01:45:50,540
fact that I'm gonna talk to
Michael later.

2065
01:45:50,540 --> 01:45:53,820
I mean, it's still almost a
verbal thought process.

2066
01:45:54,220 --> 01:45:58,940
That's in a sense.
Well, I found some notes here I

2067
01:45:58,940 --> 01:46:01,860
made on this problem.
Donald talking about Donald

2068
01:46:01,860 --> 01:46:05,530
Hoffman's idea.
Let me see what else we got

2069
01:46:05,530 --> 01:46:06,010
here.
Let.

2070
01:46:06,330 --> 01:46:08,370
Me also find is that Isaac
Asimov.

2071
01:46:08,370 --> 01:46:13,930
I really want you to read this,
Isaac Asimov.

2072
01:46:16,410 --> 01:46:21,920
But you didn't freeze on me,
dear.

2073
01:46:21,920 --> 01:46:25,600
No, you're looking.
I'm just checking out this essay

2074
01:46:25,600 --> 01:46:28,120
I want you to check out with
Isaac Asimov, right?

2075
01:46:31,240 --> 01:46:36,680
And let's see if I can find
this, I think.

2076
01:46:38,120 --> 01:46:39,320
No.
It's called The Beginning and

2077
01:46:39,320 --> 01:46:42,600
the End.
This collection of 23 essays

2078
01:46:42,600 --> 01:46:45,440
wrote a couple of decades.
It could be the same thing I'm

2079
01:46:45,440 --> 01:46:46,920
thinking about.
I'm not really sure.

2080
01:46:47,760 --> 01:46:49,720
Read it a while back and it's
wonderful.

2081
01:46:52,880 --> 01:46:53,960
I see you've got the frames
there.

2082
01:46:54,080 --> 01:46:56,160
Yeah.
What inspired those?

2083
01:46:57,600 --> 01:47:00,800
Which frames?
Oh oh, Azimov.

2084
01:47:01,600 --> 01:47:04,840
Well, he was.
We put him on on the cover of

2085
01:47:04,840 --> 01:47:06,740
our first issue of Skeptic
magazine.

2086
01:47:07,100 --> 01:47:08,820
Let's see if I had that here.
Let me see.

2087
01:47:09,940 --> 01:47:10,980
Yeah, hang on.
Let me grab that.

2088
01:47:10,980 --> 01:47:16,460
I'll show you.
There it is.

2089
01:47:16,460 --> 01:47:17,700
Volume one.
Number one.

2090
01:47:18,020 --> 01:47:24,180
Look at that 3130 years ago and
you can still order it.

2091
01:47:24,180 --> 01:47:27,300
We have cases of right here in
my office, so people can still

2092
01:47:27,300 --> 01:47:29,300
get.
I mean, Isaac, back issues it's

2093
01:47:29,300 --> 01:47:31,100
still one of the.
I mean he's he's he's one of the

2094
01:47:31,100 --> 01:47:33,100
goats of science fiction.
He's definitely one of the

2095
01:47:33,100 --> 01:47:35,020
greatest of all time.
He's one of my he's probably my

2096
01:47:35,020 --> 01:47:35,980
favorite.
Oh yeah.

2097
01:47:36,380 --> 01:47:37,220
Oh yeah.
I see.

2098
01:47:37,380 --> 01:47:39,140
That you actually tweeted
something about Authorsey Clark.

2099
01:47:39,140 --> 01:47:40,900
What is that about?
What again?

2100
01:47:43,900 --> 01:47:47,340
Oh the oh oh, this morning's
tweet.

2101
01:47:47,340 --> 01:47:50,460
Yes, I'll read it because it's.
I don't know.

2102
01:47:50,460 --> 01:47:52,340
I just.
I just disagreed with what he

2103
01:47:52,340 --> 01:47:56,820
said here.
But from his quote, 2

2104
01:47:56,820 --> 01:47:59,260
possibilities exist.
Either we are alone in the

2105
01:47:59,260 --> 01:48:02,180
universe or we're not.
Both are equally terrifying.

2106
01:48:02,690 --> 01:48:03,930
I don't think it's terrifying at
all.

2107
01:48:05,130 --> 01:48:08,690
First of all, as I wrote, if the
former, all the more reason we

2108
01:48:08,690 --> 01:48:11,370
need to be good stewards of our
home planet as well as become a

2109
01:48:11,370 --> 01:48:13,610
multiplanetary interstellar
species.

2110
01:48:14,130 --> 01:48:17,490
We are a way for the cosmos to
know itself, said Carl Sagan.

2111
01:48:17,490 --> 01:48:19,650
If the latter, it would be
exhilarating to make contact

2112
01:48:19,650 --> 01:48:22,530
with extraterrestrials.
Learn from them how they solve

2113
01:48:22,530 --> 01:48:25,090
various problems on their home
planet, like collective action

2114
01:48:25,090 --> 01:48:28,650
problems like global warming,
nuclear proliferation, or

2115
01:48:28,650 --> 01:48:30,610
technical problems like
sustainable energy and

2116
01:48:30,610 --> 01:48:33,810
alternatives to chemical rockets
and scientific problems like the

2117
01:48:33,810 --> 01:48:36,570
nature of consciousness, dark
matter, dark energy, etcetera.

2118
01:48:36,970 --> 01:48:40,050
It would be exciting either way.
I don't know why he said that.

2119
01:48:40,050 --> 01:48:42,250
It's terrifying.
You know, there is this kind of

2120
01:48:42,250 --> 01:48:45,010
mean going around about, you
know, why the government doesn't

2121
01:48:45,010 --> 01:48:47,170
want to disclose what it knows
about aliens, Because it'll

2122
01:48:47,170 --> 01:48:50,690
terrify people, and and people
will lose their religions and

2123
01:48:50,690 --> 01:48:52,890
the stock market will crash.
But this is nonsense.

2124
01:48:52,890 --> 01:48:55,530
Why would any of that happen?
I've never heard a good

2125
01:48:55,530 --> 01:49:00,210
explanation for that, much less
like that, since we're on the

2126
01:49:00,210 --> 01:49:03,850
subject like that A I will cause
the extinction of this, not only

2127
01:49:03,850 --> 01:49:05,690
our species, but all life on
Earth.

2128
01:49:06,410 --> 01:49:08,010
How?
How would this happen?

2129
01:49:08,370 --> 01:49:10,890
And I never hear a good answer.
You know, short of something

2130
01:49:10,890 --> 01:49:14,610
like it'll trick Putin into
launching a nuclear strike and

2131
01:49:14,610 --> 01:49:18,170
we'll counter strike and it'll
be global thermonuclear war and

2132
01:49:18,170 --> 01:49:21,650
it'll kill everything on Earth.
Yeah, but there's so many ways

2133
01:49:21,650 --> 01:49:25,520
to prevent that from happening
already in place that a deep

2134
01:49:25,520 --> 01:49:28,280
fake video seems unlikely to be
able to trigger something like

2135
01:49:28,280 --> 01:49:31,200
that.
Do you think AI, though?

2136
01:49:31,200 --> 01:49:35,320
Do you think it will be the well
if, let's say, if there was, as

2137
01:49:35,320 --> 01:49:37,800
you said earlier, if it was the
teleological entity to take

2138
01:49:37,800 --> 01:49:40,760
forward at this sort of thought
process, do you think we would

2139
01:49:40,800 --> 01:49:44,360
either join somehow and become
symbiotic creatures with these

2140
01:49:45,040 --> 01:49:47,040
machinery?
Do you think that's the best?

2141
01:49:47,040 --> 01:49:49,480
Yeah, I think it.
I think it'd be like another

2142
01:49:49,480 --> 01:49:53,310
tool, an instrument we can use
or integrate with our our own

2143
01:49:53,310 --> 01:49:55,510
lives, something like that.
I mean, we already do this.

2144
01:49:55,950 --> 01:50:00,710
Cochlear implants for hearing,
you know, hip replacements.

2145
01:50:00,710 --> 01:50:03,510
I've had two.
Yeah, just just using.

2146
01:50:03,550 --> 01:50:06,270
We already do this, you know,
this using technology to make

2147
01:50:06,270 --> 01:50:09,470
life better rather than thinking
of it, you know, the negativity

2148
01:50:09,470 --> 01:50:10,870
bias, You know, what could go
wrong?

2149
01:50:10,910 --> 01:50:13,350
How about what could go right?
You know, how about the, you

2150
01:50:13,350 --> 01:50:17,830
know, the development of drugs
is a lengthy, expensive process

2151
01:50:17,830 --> 01:50:20,880
because you have to test all
these different conditions.

2152
01:50:20,880 --> 01:50:23,200
You know, computers, AI could do
this way faster.

2153
01:50:23,600 --> 01:50:26,680
You know, how about we just
solve 1 little problem like

2154
01:50:26,680 --> 01:50:29,040
Alzheimer's?
Let's see if AI can help us

2155
01:50:29,040 --> 01:50:30,960
solve one.
You know, there was all you

2156
01:50:30,960 --> 01:50:33,240
know, like when I was writing
about longevity and living

2157
01:50:33,240 --> 01:50:34,640
forever.
And Ray Kurzweil, the

2158
01:50:34,640 --> 01:50:36,320
Singularity's coming.
We get to live forever.

2159
01:50:36,320 --> 01:50:39,310
And so you know, all right,
forget, forget this goal.

2160
01:50:39,310 --> 01:50:41,670
Like we're going to live for
forever.

2161
01:50:41,950 --> 01:50:45,470
How about just get me to 100
without Alzheimer's, OK?

2162
01:50:45,910 --> 01:50:48,030
Or cancer?
You know, just start with one

2163
01:50:48,030 --> 01:50:49,630
little thing.
Just solve one problem.

2164
01:50:50,230 --> 01:50:52,510
Let's just put AI to work and
see if it can solve this

2165
01:50:52,510 --> 01:50:54,070
problem.
Like self driving cars.

2166
01:50:54,070 --> 01:50:56,070
This would be good.
I think it's a much harder

2167
01:50:56,070 --> 01:51:00,310
problem than anyone realized.
And so but keep working on it.

2168
01:51:00,350 --> 01:51:04,430
You know if if if you could just
instead of like self driving

2169
01:51:04,430 --> 01:51:08,980
completely, how about just you
know like you know not, you know

2170
01:51:08,980 --> 01:51:12,540
what, no lock brakes that that
was developed in the 70s, just

2171
01:51:12,620 --> 01:51:16,140
little things like that.
You know NAV systems that are a

2172
01:51:16,140 --> 01:51:19,660
little more efficient, anything
that could just slightly reduce

2173
01:51:19,660 --> 01:51:22,100
the amount of carnage in
automobile accidents.

2174
01:51:22,100 --> 01:51:24,620
Let's just work on that.
You know, don't, don't, don't

2175
01:51:24,620 --> 01:51:26,860
have this.
It's all or none kind of thing.

2176
01:51:27,440 --> 01:51:29,400
I think another great
application for what I was

2177
01:51:29,400 --> 01:51:32,160
thinking about quite recently
was psychiatry.

2178
01:51:32,160 --> 01:51:35,680
I mean if you take the average
lack of psychiatrists per

2179
01:51:35,680 --> 01:51:38,800
patient, I mean if you could
have intelligence having the

2180
01:51:38,800 --> 01:51:42,240
psychotherapy, if we could get
the best psychiatrist together,

2181
01:51:42,640 --> 01:51:45,200
allow this thing to machine
learn or get some sort of an

2182
01:51:45,200 --> 01:51:47,160
algorithm that allows it to
communicate with patients, it

2183
01:51:47,160 --> 01:51:49,200
would be quite remarkable what
it could do.

2184
01:51:50,690 --> 01:51:52,810
Oh yeah, yeah, that's another
example.

2185
01:51:53,050 --> 01:51:55,290
Back to the brain, how much?
We don't know.

2186
01:51:55,690 --> 01:51:59,610
If you just take the the field
of psychiatry and just take some

2187
01:51:59,610 --> 01:52:03,410
of the psychoses like
schizophrenia, you know, we

2188
01:52:03,410 --> 01:52:06,970
still, there's still so much we
don't know about the cause

2189
01:52:07,010 --> 01:52:10,170
treatments.
It's really kind of depressing

2190
01:52:10,170 --> 01:52:13,050
when you read the literature
going, wow, you know, when I

2191
01:52:13,050 --> 01:52:14,970
started college, you know, this
was going to be it.

2192
01:52:14,970 --> 01:52:16,010
We're going to solve this
problem.

2193
01:52:16,010 --> 01:52:19,900
By the 90s it just didn't
happen, and it's a much harder

2194
01:52:19,900 --> 01:52:22,660
problem than we realized.
But maybe, so maybe I could help

2195
01:52:22,660 --> 01:52:25,500
with that.
Exactly how do you?

2196
01:52:26,540 --> 01:52:29,820
Psychiatrists had all these.
I mean the neuroscientific 1,

2197
01:52:29,820 --> 01:52:32,100
the genetic component.
I mean, we thought we'd solve

2198
01:52:32,100 --> 01:52:34,420
the genes.
I mean, we consistently failed

2199
01:52:34,900 --> 01:52:36,940
at trying to figure out every
condition.

2200
01:52:38,080 --> 01:52:39,640
Yeah.
Same thing with Alzheimer's.

2201
01:52:39,640 --> 01:52:41,480
You know, I I don't have the
Alzheimer's genes.

2202
01:52:41,480 --> 01:52:44,040
I got the 23 means okay.
But then when you actually read

2203
01:52:44,040 --> 01:52:47,120
the literature on that, it's
like those two genes, they don't

2204
01:52:47,120 --> 01:52:49,640
make that big of a difference.
You know, I mean it it's a, it's

2205
01:52:49,640 --> 01:52:51,640
a, it's not a determining
factor.

2206
01:52:51,640 --> 01:52:55,280
It's just like could nudge you
slightly in the direction of

2207
01:52:55,280 --> 01:52:57,680
getting it from for some other
reason that you're actually

2208
01:52:57,680 --> 01:53:00,880
getting it, you know or you
know, the plaques and tangles.

2209
01:53:00,880 --> 01:53:03,160
Oh, Alzheimer's is the plaques
and tangles.

2210
01:53:03,160 --> 01:53:06,340
Well, but there are people who
are autopsied and they have

2211
01:53:06,340 --> 01:53:09,300
plaques and tangles and never
showed any signs of Alzheimer's

2212
01:53:09,300 --> 01:53:11,420
at all.
And then there's people that die

2213
01:53:11,420 --> 01:53:13,740
of Alzheimer's and they don't
have any plaques and tangles.

2214
01:53:14,100 --> 01:53:16,660
Okay, obviously there's there's
more than that.

2215
01:53:17,180 --> 01:53:19,260
There's other, it's a really
hard problem.

2216
01:53:19,740 --> 01:53:22,260
So again, why not turn a I on
that see if we can solve those

2217
01:53:22,260 --> 01:53:28,660
kinds of problems.
Kevin Kelly calls this protopia

2218
01:53:29,500 --> 01:53:32,060
rather than utopia.
Forget aiming for utopia.

2219
01:53:32,260 --> 01:53:34,140
Perfect.
You know, life for everybody

2220
01:53:34,140 --> 01:53:36,380
everywhere right now.
That's not going to happen.

2221
01:53:36,380 --> 01:53:38,980
How about Protopia?
Just make tomorrow slightly

2222
01:53:38,980 --> 01:53:41,220
better than today.
Just like 1% better.

2223
01:53:41,420 --> 01:53:45,060
Just a tiny little bit.
And and do that every day for

2224
01:53:45,060 --> 01:53:47,340
the next century and life will
be quite a bit better.

2225
01:53:47,340 --> 01:53:48,940
That's what we've been doing.
Yeah.

2226
01:53:48,940 --> 01:53:53,020
So, so you, you agree basically
with Steven because assessment

2227
01:53:53,020 --> 01:53:55,540
of the progress we've made so
far?

2228
01:53:55,580 --> 01:53:58,540
Oh yeah, totally.
What?

2229
01:53:59,050 --> 01:54:00,930
For those who disagree, what
would you say to them?

2230
01:54:02,410 --> 01:54:06,290
Well, they're they're Those who
disagree are mostly subject to

2231
01:54:06,290 --> 01:54:10,770
the negativity bias.
That is to say, negative things

2232
01:54:10,770 --> 01:54:14,090
stand out twice as much as
positive things.

2233
01:54:14,530 --> 01:54:17,170
It's kind of a derivative of
loss aversion and behavioral

2234
01:54:17,170 --> 01:54:20,410
economics.
Losses hurt twice as much as

2235
01:54:20,410 --> 01:54:22,810
gains feel good.
So if you want to get somebody

2236
01:54:22,810 --> 01:54:25,130
to make an investment, you have
to show them that the payoff is

2237
01:54:25,130 --> 01:54:30,200
going to be twice as rewarding
as the loss would feel bad

2238
01:54:30,760 --> 01:54:32,960
because that that's going to
drive their investment

2239
01:54:33,640 --> 01:54:36,720
behaviors.
And so we know, for example,

2240
01:54:36,720 --> 01:54:40,080
like on social media, you know,
that you could get 100 likes.

2241
01:54:40,080 --> 01:54:43,840
But that one negative guy that
you know, that's the one that

2242
01:54:43,840 --> 01:54:46,840
you'll remember Who was this
asshole that said that about

2243
01:54:47,480 --> 01:54:49,000
what about the 100 people that
like you?

2244
01:54:49,040 --> 01:54:50,760
Forget them?
I don't like the How come that

2245
01:54:50,800 --> 01:54:53,150
guy doesn't like me?
You know, those are the things

2246
01:54:53,150 --> 01:54:54,510
that stand out.
And there's a good reason for

2247
01:54:54,510 --> 01:54:56,190
this.
The second law of

2248
01:54:56,190 --> 01:54:57,430
thermodynamics.
Entropy.

2249
01:54:57,550 --> 01:54:59,950
There's more ways for things to
go bad than go good.

2250
01:55:00,230 --> 01:55:03,030
There's more ways for your body
to break down than it is for it

2251
01:55:03,030 --> 01:55:05,510
to get better.
It's just the way it is.

2252
01:55:05,510 --> 01:55:09,710
Just nature runs its course.
Just take a a sandcastle.

2253
01:55:10,070 --> 01:55:13,030
You know, There's only so many
limited ways you can shape sand

2254
01:55:13,030 --> 01:55:16,070
with and water into some
structure that looks nice, like

2255
01:55:16,070 --> 01:55:18,590
a sandcastle, but there's an
infinite number of ways for it

2256
01:55:18,590 --> 01:55:22,430
to wash away in a road and waves
and wind and dogs and children

2257
01:55:22,430 --> 01:55:25,550
and, you know, things that just
cause it to to revert back into

2258
01:55:25,550 --> 01:55:29,470
a BLOB of nothingness.
And that's what life is like.

2259
01:55:29,470 --> 01:55:33,110
I mean that if you do nothing,
things just run down.

2260
01:55:33,230 --> 01:55:35,710
Bedrooms get cluttered.
Your body gets flabby.

2261
01:55:35,710 --> 01:55:39,240
Your mind gets weak.
Yeah, beds don't get made on

2262
01:55:39,240 --> 01:55:41,120
their own.
You know, poverty is what you

2263
01:55:41,120 --> 01:55:43,560
get when you do nothing.
You know, we don't need books on

2264
01:55:43,560 --> 01:55:45,960
poverty.
We know what poverty is.

2265
01:55:45,960 --> 01:55:48,240
The default.
It's, you know, what's the

2266
01:55:48,480 --> 01:55:50,480
origin of wealth That's the hard
problem.

2267
01:55:51,120 --> 01:55:54,240
And and so on.
So, yeah.

2268
01:55:54,240 --> 01:55:58,040
Anyway, it's.
Like flipping that framework and

2269
01:55:58,040 --> 01:56:00,760
the perspective can actually
make a big impact on the one

2270
01:56:00,760 --> 01:56:03,800
finding solutions.
Oh oh sorry, I lost the thread

2271
01:56:03,800 --> 01:56:05,840
there.
Yeah, so the people that

2272
01:56:06,190 --> 01:56:09,430
criticize me and Pinker and
other positive people,

2273
01:56:09,830 --> 01:56:13,510
progressivists or whatever we
want to call it, they're they're

2274
01:56:13,510 --> 01:56:15,070
just more focused on the
negative things.

2275
01:56:15,750 --> 01:56:17,830
And the fact is there will
always be negative things.

2276
01:56:17,830 --> 01:56:20,190
There will always be homicides.
It's never going to be 0.

2277
01:56:20,190 --> 01:56:22,830
There's always going to be a few
racist assholes out there,

2278
01:56:22,830 --> 01:56:26,390
misogynist assholes, and and
they will stand out.

2279
01:56:26,390 --> 01:56:30,510
Like, how can you say things are
better in race relations when

2280
01:56:30,790 --> 01:56:32,670
look what those police did to
that black guy?

2281
01:56:33,550 --> 01:56:35,430
Yeah, I know, that's terrible
what they did.

2282
01:56:35,430 --> 01:56:37,870
You know, the George Floyd.
Yeah, it's awful.

2283
01:56:37,870 --> 01:56:40,150
It's terrible.
But but let's not think that

2284
01:56:40,150 --> 01:56:42,990
that's the way it normally is.
What's the base rate compared to

2285
01:56:42,990 --> 01:56:45,790
what you know?
And they're the data.

2286
01:56:45,790 --> 01:56:47,750
You have to look at the data.
You have to follow the trend

2287
01:56:47,750 --> 01:56:50,750
lines, not the headlines.
The, you know, the news by

2288
01:56:50,750 --> 01:56:52,830
definition only reports the bad
stuff.

2289
01:56:53,350 --> 01:56:54,950
They don't report.
You know, here we are at a

2290
01:56:54,950 --> 01:56:57,270
school with our camera crew and
there's been no shootings all

2291
01:56:57,270 --> 01:56:59,430
day.
You're never going to get

2292
01:56:59,670 --> 01:57:02,390
there's no news there.
You know, news is when bad

2293
01:57:02,390 --> 01:57:04,870
things happen.
So I think most of the critics

2294
01:57:04,870 --> 01:57:08,790
are just focused on the bad
things or or or even say, you

2295
01:57:08,790 --> 01:57:11,710
know life was better in the
Paleo that they, you know, we

2296
01:57:11,710 --> 01:57:14,710
know from fossils that people
were taller than they were.

2297
01:57:14,790 --> 01:57:18,910
You know, it's say 5000 BC you
know, they had fewer cavities.

2298
01:57:18,910 --> 01:57:21,430
They had less arthritis in their
bones.

2299
01:57:21,890 --> 01:57:24,290
You know, they really had a
better life than than, you know,

2300
01:57:24,290 --> 01:57:25,970
all the way up until modern
people.

2301
01:57:26,570 --> 01:57:30,530
Yeah, that's true.
You know, diets, you know, the

2302
01:57:30,810 --> 01:57:33,290
so-called Paleolithic diet.
There's nothing magical about

2303
01:57:33,290 --> 01:57:36,250
it, but it's the variation.
They had about 300 different

2304
01:57:36,250 --> 01:57:38,810
kinds of foods.
We have about 30 different kinds

2305
01:57:38,810 --> 01:57:41,970
of foods that we consume.
It's better to have variety in

2306
01:57:41,970 --> 01:57:43,570
your diet.
That's the kind of lesson of

2307
01:57:43,570 --> 01:57:46,050
that.
But we're not going back to the

2308
01:57:46,050 --> 01:57:49,530
Paleolithic where there's, you
know, 100,000 people on the

2309
01:57:49,530 --> 01:57:51,530
entire planet.
That's never going to happen.

2310
01:57:52,170 --> 01:57:56,170
So we have to go forward solving
the problems that civilization

2311
01:57:56,170 --> 01:58:01,650
caused, like a monoculture that
produces very few food

2312
01:58:01,650 --> 01:58:04,690
substances and sedentary
lifestyle.

2313
01:58:04,690 --> 01:58:08,330
And, you know, on and on and on
diseases that spread in large

2314
01:58:08,330 --> 01:58:11,290
populations that didn't have
that problem in the Paleo

2315
01:58:11,290 --> 01:58:14,170
because these are small groups
of a few dozen people.

2316
01:58:14,290 --> 01:58:17,650
And so there were no, you know,
disease contagions to rapidly

2317
01:58:17,650 --> 01:58:20,450
spread millions of people that
just didn't happen.

2318
01:58:20,570 --> 01:58:23,370
Well, okay, but you know, how
many of you want to go back to

2319
01:58:23,370 --> 01:58:26,730
living off the land as hunter
gatherers, You know, wouldn't

2320
01:58:26,730 --> 01:58:28,370
even know how to do it.
Nobody could do it.

2321
01:58:29,730 --> 01:58:32,650
And so, you know, just watch
that show naked and afraid.

2322
01:58:33,530 --> 01:58:35,770
They dumped those.
They dumped those people out

2323
01:58:35,770 --> 01:58:37,610
there in the middle of nowhere
and they got a week to find

2324
01:58:37,610 --> 01:58:40,880
their way.
Oh my God, who wants to live

2325
01:58:40,880 --> 01:58:42,880
like that?
I mean, another very common

2326
01:58:42,880 --> 01:58:45,120
misconception is that you take
the average person and you tell

2327
01:58:45,120 --> 01:58:48,120
them you could go back in time
and they get all carried away.

2328
01:58:48,120 --> 01:58:50,800
Like, yeah, I could invent
everything, I could do anything.

2329
01:58:51,080 --> 01:58:54,200
But the truth is, they can't.
The average human cannot do the

2330
01:58:54,200 --> 01:58:56,640
most basic things we take for
every day.

2331
01:58:57,120 --> 01:58:59,120
They think they can invent all
over again.

2332
01:58:59,120 --> 01:59:03,990
They don't know where to begin.
Just think about dentistry, you

2333
01:59:03,990 --> 01:59:05,510
know?
I mean, it's just, it's improved

2334
01:59:05,510 --> 01:59:08,670
so much just in my own lifetime.
You know what the dentist can do

2335
01:59:08,670 --> 01:59:11,390
to keep your teeth going.
When you live, people live

2336
01:59:11,390 --> 01:59:13,310
longer.
It's like a it's a miracle.

2337
01:59:15,110 --> 01:59:18,670
It's crazy the the amount of
innovation and technology that

2338
01:59:18,670 --> 01:59:21,510
we've, I mean and it's it's
consistently exponentially

2339
01:59:21,510 --> 01:59:24,910
rising at this point.
So yeah, you think it's.

2340
01:59:25,150 --> 01:59:27,950
Gonna happen in the future.
I mean, it's pretty phenomenal.

2341
01:59:28,270 --> 01:59:29,350
Michael, how are you doing for
time?

2342
01:59:29,350 --> 01:59:32,440
At the moment?
I better stop in about 7

2343
01:59:32,440 --> 01:59:35,240
minutes, so give me 15 minutes
before my next podcast, so

2344
01:59:35,240 --> 01:59:37,560
11/15.
I think it's a close Michael,

2345
01:59:37,560 --> 01:59:41,120
it's your books all conspiracy.
I mean you want to just briefly

2346
01:59:41,120 --> 01:59:43,640
run through me like in from
within this conversation.

2347
01:59:43,640 --> 01:59:47,840
Any high rated conspiracies
could hinder this conversation

2348
01:59:47,840 --> 01:59:50,000
somehow.
Well, I guess if it related

2349
01:59:50,000 --> 01:59:51,920
anything we're talking about,
it's a signal detection problem.

2350
01:59:51,920 --> 01:59:55,270
How do I know if this conspiracy
theory is true or not?

2351
01:59:55,310 --> 01:59:57,270
Now, the problem is there are
conspiracies.

2352
01:59:57,510 --> 01:59:59,830
You know, we mentioned some of
those, you know, the big farm,

2353
01:59:59,910 --> 02:00:02,070
capturing the regulatory state
by bribing people.

2354
02:00:02,470 --> 02:00:03,990
You know, this happens all the
time.

2355
02:00:03,990 --> 02:00:06,830
The insider trading, you know,
how these congressmen start, you

2356
02:00:06,830 --> 02:00:09,430
know, to get elected and they're
worth nothing, You know, 10

2357
02:00:09,430 --> 02:00:11,110
years later, they're worth $100
million.

2358
02:00:11,110 --> 02:00:13,670
How does this happen?
You know, they're, they

2359
02:00:13,670 --> 02:00:15,310
conspire.
There's insider training.

2360
02:00:15,310 --> 02:00:17,950
I mean, there's all kinds
companies do this, government

2361
02:00:17,950 --> 02:00:21,210
agencies do, you know?
You know, Watergate was a

2362
02:00:21,210 --> 02:00:24,250
conspiracy.
The CIA has done all sorts of

2363
02:00:24,250 --> 02:00:27,650
things and its existence that,
you know, without the approval

2364
02:00:27,650 --> 02:00:31,010
of Congress or, you know, maybe
quasi legal or not,

2365
02:00:31,530 --> 02:00:34,810
assassination of foreign
leaders, overturning foreign

2366
02:00:34,810 --> 02:00:38,770
country elections to favor a
dictator over the other

2367
02:00:38,770 --> 02:00:40,690
dictator.
Because we prefer the fascist

2368
02:00:40,690 --> 02:00:42,690
dictator over the communist
dictator because they're

2369
02:00:42,690 --> 02:00:44,570
friendlier to U.S. business
interest.

2370
02:00:44,970 --> 02:00:46,490
This kind of stuff happens all
the time.

2371
02:00:47,240 --> 02:00:50,120
So but that doesn't mean the
government's hiding the aliens

2372
02:00:50,120 --> 02:00:53,040
or they faked the moon landing
or they orchestrated 9/11.

2373
02:00:53,480 --> 02:00:55,360
You know, you have to take them
one at a time.

2374
02:00:55,360 --> 02:00:57,280
So then it becomes a signal
detection problem.

2375
02:00:57,280 --> 02:00:58,880
You know, I hear a conspiracy
theory.

2376
02:00:59,120 --> 02:01:00,240
How do I know if it's true or
not?

2377
02:01:01,120 --> 02:01:04,120
And then we can just apply the
normal methods of rationality

2378
02:01:04,120 --> 02:01:07,440
and in science to, well, okay,
let's ask what's the source of

2379
02:01:07,440 --> 02:01:08,560
that claim?
Who said that?

2380
02:01:09,600 --> 02:01:12,720
And you know, where was that
published and did anybody Fact

2381
02:01:12,720 --> 02:01:14,560
Check it And what's the evidence
for it?

2382
02:01:14,560 --> 02:01:17,290
How do you know that's true?
It may be true.

2383
02:01:17,410 --> 02:01:20,290
Again, Bayesian.
You know, maybe it's not zero.

2384
02:01:21,010 --> 02:01:23,130
It could be true.
But, you know, does that fit

2385
02:01:23,130 --> 02:01:25,330
with the way the world works?
Is there?

2386
02:01:25,530 --> 02:01:28,010
How many people would have to be
involved in the conspiracy?

2387
02:01:28,650 --> 02:01:30,650
You know, a few people Okay
that.

2388
02:01:30,650 --> 02:01:33,170
That's possible.
Most conspiracies involve very

2389
02:01:33,170 --> 02:01:35,890
few people, because people can't
keep their mouth shut.

2390
02:01:35,890 --> 02:01:37,970
They're incompetent.
They, you know, coordinating.

2391
02:01:38,250 --> 02:01:40,490
Everybody has to be at the right
place at the right time.

2392
02:01:40,490 --> 02:01:42,410
And there's a hundred different
people that have to do their

2393
02:01:42,410 --> 02:01:45,730
exact thing at 2:00.
Unlikely to happen.

2394
02:01:45,730 --> 02:01:49,180
There's just too many chance
contingencies, randomness,

2395
02:01:49,420 --> 02:01:53,180
incompetence and so on.
I've been tweeting since my book

2396
02:01:53,180 --> 02:01:56,300
came out the the, the kind of
the standard skeptical line on

2397
02:01:56,300 --> 02:01:59,420
this, you know, never attribute
to malice what can be explained

2398
02:01:59,420 --> 02:02:04,140
by incompetence or chance.
And then and then the the the

2399
02:02:04,140 --> 02:02:06,820
plane crash with Pregosine in
it.

2400
02:02:07,700 --> 02:02:09,380
I said never mind, not this
time.

2401
02:02:09,940 --> 02:02:13,100
This one is definitely, probably
malice because, you know, but

2402
02:02:13,100 --> 02:02:15,220
again, how do I know that?
Well, everybody knows.

2403
02:02:15,220 --> 02:02:18,540
Putin, you know, has his enemies
assassinated.

2404
02:02:19,220 --> 02:02:22,140
And so it's, you know, very
likely to be the case in there,

2405
02:02:22,620 --> 02:02:24,380
you know, so but again, you have
to take them one by one.

2406
02:02:24,380 --> 02:02:26,220
What's the evidence?
What's the, you know, the

2407
02:02:26,220 --> 02:02:29,420
likelihood that somebody could
do that sort of thing to, that

2408
02:02:29,420 --> 02:02:32,340
they have the power to do it,
are they in a position to do it

2409
02:02:33,500 --> 02:02:35,420
and so forth.
And you know, that's what

2410
02:02:35,780 --> 02:02:38,140
insider trading investigations
are all about.

2411
02:02:38,140 --> 02:02:40,940
That's, you know, what the SEC
does when they launch those

2412
02:02:40,940 --> 02:02:44,320
investigations or you know,
congressional hearings on

2413
02:02:44,760 --> 02:02:48,520
ethical issues in Congress.
You know, the they're they're

2414
02:02:48,520 --> 02:02:50,760
looking for evidence or a
conspiracy.

2415
02:02:50,760 --> 02:02:53,480
Is it there or not?
You know did the Democrats

2416
02:02:53,480 --> 02:02:55,720
conspire to steal the 2020
election?

2417
02:02:56,360 --> 02:02:57,960
Okay, That's a conspiracy
theory.

2418
02:02:58,200 --> 02:03:00,240
Could be true.
Is it in fact true?

2419
02:03:00,440 --> 02:03:04,320
And you know the how would you
and I know who I wouldn't know

2420
02:03:04,320 --> 02:03:06,720
even to who to call.
But the Department of Justice

2421
02:03:07,640 --> 02:03:11,190
can know, can check that and
they did and you know all but.

2422
02:03:11,190 --> 02:03:12,510
But.
But they're Democrats.

2423
02:03:12,510 --> 02:03:14,270
No, no.
They actually weren't the you

2424
02:03:14,270 --> 02:03:18,030
know, the Bill Barr who was the
He was the head of the

2425
02:03:18,030 --> 02:03:21,230
Department of Justice Attorney
General Bill Barr, lifelong

2426
02:03:21,510 --> 02:03:24,550
Republican.
He voted for Trump and so on.

2427
02:03:24,910 --> 02:03:27,710
And he looked into it and said,
you know Nope there's nothing

2428
02:03:27,710 --> 02:03:28,790
there.
We got nothing.

2429
02:03:29,350 --> 02:03:31,830
You know and then all those
court cases you know dozens and

2430
02:03:31,830 --> 02:03:33,830
dozens of court cases that were
all thrown out.

2431
02:03:33,830 --> 02:03:36,470
No evidence of vote tampering
and so on.

2432
02:03:36,950 --> 02:03:39,590
That's how you and I can know
without checking ourselves.

2433
02:03:40,110 --> 02:03:43,790
You know, yeah, these are people
that were were in a position who

2434
02:03:43,790 --> 02:03:47,390
would like to find that there
was voter fraud, but in fact

2435
02:03:47,390 --> 02:03:49,590
found none.
So that tells us there's a

2436
02:03:49,710 --> 02:03:51,550
pretty good chance there was no
voter fraud.

2437
02:03:51,870 --> 02:03:54,030
The 2020 election was on the up
and up.

2438
02:03:55,230 --> 02:03:57,430
Michael, to close off, I mean
let's end it on a positive note.

2439
02:03:57,430 --> 02:03:59,110
As you were talking about things
are getting better.

2440
02:03:59,150 --> 02:04:02,390
So I noticed you love magic and
you do a lot of these cool magic

2441
02:04:02,390 --> 02:04:03,870
tricks.
I saw them on YouTube and I was

2442
02:04:04,150 --> 02:04:08,930
I was curious to know.
How do you see magic as a great

2443
02:04:08,930 --> 02:04:13,890
tool to uncover the true nature
of reality and explodes a lot of

2444
02:04:13,890 --> 02:04:16,330
our flaws of thought?
This is a great way to close.

2445
02:04:16,330 --> 02:04:20,610
Well, in the same way that these
famous psychology illusions

2446
02:04:21,170 --> 02:04:24,010
work, they work.
They, in a way, tell us how the

2447
02:04:24,010 --> 02:04:26,490
brain actually works.
Because normally we're not

2448
02:04:26,490 --> 02:04:30,560
fooled by those things.
It takes a special kind of way

2449
02:04:30,560 --> 02:04:35,280
of the that the drawing is made,
or the structure or the magic

2450
02:04:35,280 --> 02:04:39,280
trick is done to fool people.
But that tells us that actually,

2451
02:04:39,280 --> 02:04:43,140
most of the time we're not
fooled and that we can figure

2452
02:04:43,140 --> 02:04:46,100
out reality.
You know, the magician has to go

2453
02:04:46,100 --> 02:04:48,820
through great lengths to make
these things work out a certain

2454
02:04:48,820 --> 02:04:52,780
way or else, you know, the magic
doesn't work.

2455
02:04:53,180 --> 02:04:56,620
And and in a way it's it's why
it's not fun to find out how

2456
02:04:56,660 --> 02:04:59,740
most magic tricks are done
because they're so obviously

2457
02:04:59,740 --> 02:05:02,300
simple.
They just a misdirection or you

2458
02:05:02,300 --> 02:05:04,900
know, or you know, whatever.
I don't want to give away too

2459
02:05:04,900 --> 02:05:08,220
much stuff, but you know, the
spoon banding or the stuff

2460
02:05:08,220 --> 02:05:11,860
because I'm not a magician, but
but I like magic because it's a

2461
02:05:11,860 --> 02:05:15,820
it's a instrument to show people
how easy it can be fooled if

2462
02:05:15,820 --> 02:05:21,060
it's done in a certain way.
And you know, so when people

2463
02:05:21,060 --> 02:05:23,820
tell me so well, Uri Gallery,
you know, he's bending spoons.

2464
02:05:23,820 --> 02:05:28,220
He's using his mind and so on.
And he moves the molecules of

2465
02:05:28,220 --> 02:05:31,700
the atom somehow he influences
them And I say, well, okay.

2466
02:05:31,700 --> 02:05:34,660
So when you see David
Copperfield make the Statue of

2467
02:05:34,660 --> 02:05:38,400
Liberty disappear, do you think
he actually moves the atoms of

2468
02:05:38,400 --> 02:05:40,520
the Statue of Liberty and then
puts them back?

2469
02:05:40,520 --> 02:05:42,760
Well, no, of course.
No, I know he doesn't do that.

2470
02:05:42,880 --> 02:05:46,440
That's impossible, right?
So it's a magic trick, why

2471
02:05:46,440 --> 02:05:48,600
wouldn't you think?
Or a Geller or some some

2472
02:05:48,720 --> 02:05:51,720
illusionist is just doing a
magic trick, you know, Or the

2473
02:05:51,720 --> 02:05:54,120
psychics that, you know,
allegedly talked to the dead.

2474
02:05:54,120 --> 02:05:55,960
This is a magic trick.
It's, you know, it's called

2475
02:05:55,960 --> 02:05:58,840
mentalism.
And they're cold reading, warm

2476
02:05:58,840 --> 02:06:00,880
reading, hot reading.
They have their techniques that

2477
02:06:00,920 --> 02:06:05,640
really work, tried and trued and
practiced like magicians do and

2478
02:06:05,640 --> 02:06:08,440
they can fool people.
And if so, if you don't think

2479
02:06:08,440 --> 02:06:11,160
Copperfield is really moving the
Statue of Liberty, why would you

2480
02:06:11,160 --> 02:06:13,200
think the psychic is really
talking to dead people?

2481
02:06:13,680 --> 02:06:16,320
You know, I mean anybody, first
of all anybody can talk to dead

2482
02:06:16,320 --> 02:06:18,720
people.
Getting the dead to talk back,

2483
02:06:18,720 --> 02:06:21,960
that's the hard part, right.
So how does it, How do they make

2484
02:06:21,960 --> 02:06:24,160
it look like that's what's it's
a magic trick.

2485
02:06:24,880 --> 02:06:28,080
So it's it's another instrument
for us to say, don't be fooled.

2486
02:06:28,440 --> 02:06:30,960
Look how easy it is to be fooled
with this trick.

2487
02:06:31,840 --> 02:06:35,080
So I'll tell you one story on a
on a Scientific American cruise

2488
02:06:35,320 --> 02:06:37,880
through the Bermuda Triangle.
And I was one of the guest

2489
02:06:37,880 --> 02:06:41,160
speakers and big fun.
So the dinner, we're all having

2490
02:06:41,160 --> 02:06:44,920
dinner together and every night.
And so somebody tells me the

2491
02:06:44,920 --> 02:06:46,800
story.
Oh, I saw this guy bending the

2492
02:06:46,800 --> 02:06:47,960
spoon.
It was incredible.

2493
02:06:47,960 --> 02:06:49,680
Like hurry Geller.
It wasn't hurry Geller.

2494
02:06:49,680 --> 02:06:52,280
But, you know, and I just can't
figure out how he did it.

2495
02:06:52,640 --> 02:06:55,280
And it wasn't just the normal
thing where you, you have the

2496
02:06:55,280 --> 02:06:57,880
handle of the spoon and the bowl
of the spoon and the and the

2497
02:06:57,880 --> 02:07:01,250
bowl just kind of bends down.
No, he said it was twisted in a

2498
02:07:01,250 --> 02:07:03,770
way that it was just impossible.
He could not have twisted it,

2499
02:07:04,090 --> 02:07:06,610
you know, in this normal way
because it's just the steel is

2500
02:07:06,610 --> 02:07:08,770
too strong.
Well, this is another trick I

2501
02:07:08,770 --> 02:07:12,610
happen to know of how to do this
bend that it's actually quite

2502
02:07:12,610 --> 02:07:15,210
easy to do.
So as he's talking to me, I take

2503
02:07:15,210 --> 02:07:19,210
the spoon off my table and I put
it down here below below the

2504
02:07:19,210 --> 02:07:21,210
table.
And I do the little bend trick.

2505
02:07:21,690 --> 02:07:24,290
And as he's finishing the story,
I said, did it look anything

2506
02:07:24,290 --> 02:07:28,090
like this?
And he's like, oh, no, you just

2507
02:07:28,090 --> 02:07:28,650
did that.
I go.

2508
02:07:28,650 --> 02:07:30,450
Yep.
He goes, How'd you do it?

2509
02:07:30,450 --> 02:07:33,130
I go.
I'm not gonna tell you, but it's

2510
02:07:33,210 --> 02:07:37,610
really easy.
He's like, oh, so it's a way of

2511
02:07:37,610 --> 02:07:40,010
going.
Look, I know it seems like it

2512
02:07:40,010 --> 02:07:42,050
could be this, but, you know,
don't be fooled.

2513
02:07:42,450 --> 02:07:44,410
It's often so disappointing when
you see the reality.

2514
02:07:44,410 --> 02:07:46,810
I mean, one of the people who
got to be intrigued by the mind

2515
02:07:46,810 --> 02:07:49,530
itself was Darren Brown.
I'm gonna show you.

2516
02:07:49,530 --> 02:07:51,770
Oh, yes.
Well, he's, of course he's

2517
02:07:51,770 --> 02:07:54,540
phenomenal.
He's absolutely phenomenal the

2518
02:07:54,540 --> 02:07:56,340
way he does it.
Yes, he is brilliant.

2519
02:07:56,340 --> 02:07:58,820
He's one of the great mentalists
of all time in my opinion.

2520
02:07:59,500 --> 02:08:04,380
Now I know how he does a lot of
it, but but it's the execution

2521
02:08:04,380 --> 02:08:08,020
that is so good and and and
artful.

2522
02:08:08,020 --> 02:08:09,900
I mean, he's an artist.
It's just the way his

2523
02:08:09,900 --> 02:08:14,980
presentation and the music and
the the whole staged effects and

2524
02:08:14,980 --> 02:08:16,940
so on.
Yeah, it's just great.

2525
02:08:17,540 --> 02:08:18,660
Yeah.
Well, Michael, thank you so

2526
02:08:18,660 --> 02:08:20,020
much.
I mean, this has been such a

2527
02:08:20,020 --> 02:08:22,380
pleasure for me.
I've been following your work

2528
02:08:22,380 --> 02:08:24,860
for so many years.
I mean, I'm it's it's it's a

2529
02:08:24,860 --> 02:08:27,340
privilege to talk to you and I
appreciate your time so much.

2530
02:08:28,820 --> 02:08:31,060
Well, thank you for having me.
And I love your show too.

2531
02:08:31,060 --> 02:08:33,100
It's great.
Your conversations are always

2532
02:08:33,100 --> 02:08:35,180
deep.
This is the amazing thing about

2533
02:08:35,180 --> 02:08:37,100
podcasts.
You can have deep conversations

2534
02:08:37,100 --> 02:08:39,820
like this without you.
Just it's never been that way

2535
02:08:39,820 --> 02:08:42,380
before in media.
So that's good.

2536
02:08:42,860 --> 02:08:45,180
It's right.
Platform and yeah, thank you so

2537
02:08:45,180 --> 02:08:46,940
much once again.
Any final words from yours,

2538
02:08:47,340 --> 02:08:51,340
Michael?
Well, just listeners that are

2539
02:08:51,340 --> 02:08:53,420
interested, you can go to
skeptic.com and check out our

2540
02:08:53,420 --> 02:08:55,460
magazine here.
I showed you the Azimov one.

2541
02:08:55,460 --> 02:08:58,620
Here's the latest issue.
We are for Color now Physical

2542
02:08:58,620 --> 02:09:01,340
magazine.
It's still hanging in there and

2543
02:09:01,500 --> 02:09:04,700
so we're supported by Skeptic
Society of 501C3, Nonprofit

2544
02:09:04,980 --> 02:09:06,780
Science Education.
So if you support us, go to

2545
02:09:06,820 --> 02:09:09,740
skeptic.com.
And everyone can also, I'll put

2546
02:09:09,740 --> 02:09:11,060
a link to the Michael Sherman
Show.

2547
02:09:11,820 --> 02:09:13,460
Thanks again, Michael.
I appreciate everything.

2548
02:09:13,620 --> 02:09:14,850
OK.
All right.

2549
02:09:15,090 --> 02:09:15,370
Bye.
Bye.

2550
02:09:16,050 --> 02:09:16,930
OK.
All right.

2551
02:09:16,930 --> 02:09:17,330
Bye.
Bye.